Brent Hits $102 As US-Iran Tensions Boil Over, Again
Commodities Watch10-02 10:40
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Why oil could fall sharply if the war ends 1. War premium can disappear very quickly A significant portion of today’s price reflects geopolitical risk—particularly the possibility of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. If there is a credible ceasefire/peace agreement, traders can rapidly remove that risk premium. 2. Actual crude exports are already recovering This is probably the strongest argument supporting your view. Middle Eastern crude exports through/around the Strait reportedly reached about 16.5 million barrels/day in September, close to pre-war levels, compared with only around 6 million b/d in March. Producers have increasingly used pipelines, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. 3. The market may suddenly move from “shortage” to “oversupply” psychology During the w
Comments