A report released by the China Electricity Council forecasts that the nation's power supply and demand will be generally balanced in 2026, with new energy sources continuing to see substantial capacity additions.
Taking into account current economic growth potential and national macro-control policies, the report anticipates China's macroeconomy will maintain stable growth in 2026, driving a steady and relatively fast increase in electricity consumption. It is projected that the country's total electricity consumption this year will reach 10.9 to 11 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% to 6%; the peak power load for the year is expected to be between 1.57 billion and 1.63 billion kilowatts.
Under China's "dual carbon" goals, the report states that new energy will continue its significant scale of commissioning. It is estimated that newly added power generation capacity for the full year of 2026 could exceed 400 million kilowatts, with new energy generation capacity additions expected to surpass 300 million kilowatts. The combined share of wind and solar power capacity is anticipated to reach about half of the total installed capacity, with solar power capacity projected to exceed coal power capacity for the first time. By the end of 2026, the nation's total power generation capacity is expected to reach approximately 4.3 billion kilowatts, of which non-fossil fuel energy will account for 2.7 billion kilowatts, representing about 63% of the total; the share of coal power is expected to decline to around 31%.
The report forecasts a generally balanced national power supply and demand situation for 2026. Considering demand growth, new power source and grid capacity, and primary energy conditions, it is expected that supply and demand will be broadly balanced nationally this year, with localized tightness during peak hours. Any supply shortfalls can be essentially resolved through cross-provincial and inter-regional power exchange. During the summer peak, power supply and demand are expected to be relatively tight in some provinces within the southwestern, central, and eastern regions; during the winter peak, supply and demand are projected to be basically balanced across all regions.
The report indicates that by the end of 2025, China's non-fossil fuel power generation capacity reached 2.40 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 23.0%. This accounted for 61.7% of the total installed capacity, marking an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the end of the previous year and a significant 17.0 percentage point rise from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. The nation's total power generation capacity stood at 3.89 billion kilowatts, up 16.1% year-on-year, with an average annual growth rate of 12.0% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
From the power generation perspective, the report notes that new electricity generated from new energy sources (wind, solar, biomass) has become the primary contributor to the increase in electricity consumption. In 2025, the total electricity generated from non-fossil fuel sources nationwide reached 4.47 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 14.1% increase year-on-year, accounting for 42.9% of total electricity generation, which was 3.4 percentage points higher than the previous year. During the same period, new electricity generated from wind, solar, and biomass sources accounted for 97.1% of the increase in total electricity consumption, establishing them as the main drivers of new electricity demand.
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