Recent significant volatility has been observed in the precious metals market, with international gold and silver prices undergoing substantial corrections and market turbulence intensifying. Regarding this market movement, Liu Xufeng, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at Qisheng Futures, analyzed the logic behind the market fluctuations from the perspectives of commodity, financial, and monetary attributes during a live interview, also providing an outlook on future trends.
Discussing the recent sharp decline in precious metals, Liu Xufeng stated that the core issue lies in liquidity risk. Currently, overseas financial markets are experiencing a cash flow shortage, with the US overnight reverse repo volume at historically low levels and bank reserves falling below key thresholds. When market liquidity is scarce, a sharp drop in any asset class can potentially trigger stop-loss cascades, putting pressure on assets across the board; the recent decline in precious metals exemplifies this dynamic. However, he believes whether this liquidity risk spreads further仍需观察 requires observation. In the short term, the market has a technical rebound需求 need after the significant decline, but spot gold prices overseas are likely to face resistance around $5000-$5100 per ounce, with the overall trend remaining weak.
From a commodity perspective, the core drivers for the recent rise in silver prices are strategic reserves and industrial demand. In August 2025, the US added silver to its critical minerals list, sparking expectations of global strategic stockpiling. Coupled with surging industrial demand for silver from sectors like artificial intelligence and computing chips, the global silver deficit reached 3600 tonnes in 2025, accounting for 10% of demand. The deficit is expected to widen further in 2026, providing strong long-term support for prices.
Regarding the financial attribute, Liu Xufeng believes the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is the core influencing factor. He analyzed that US inflation is already接近接近 the 2% policy target, and the possibility of a significant crude oil price surge in 2026 is low, making a substantial inflation rebound unlikely. Meanwhile, downward pressure on the US economy is prominent. While the job market appears stable, this stability comes at the cost of a lower labor participation rate, and new manufacturing orders continue to contract. These factors will pressure the Fed to accelerate its interest rate cutting pace, especially after the change in Fed Chair in May, with the new chair likely leaning towards monetary easing. If US economic data weakens beyond expectations, a single 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed cannot be ruled out, which would become a key driver for medium-term precious metals price increases.
"On the monetary attribute front, the global dedollarization process continues to accelerate," Liu Xufeng said. After the US removed Russia from the SWIFT system in 2022, countries have been adjusting their foreign exchange reserve structures. The US dollar's share in global central bank reserves has been continuously declining, while the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has significantly increased. Central bank gold buying behavior also confirms this trend. Although the pace of buying slowed in 2025, the need for global central banks to hedge currency credit risk by increasing gold holdings remains, and this supportive logic will continue into 2026.
Looking ahead, Liu Xufeng maintains a short-term weak but medium-to-long-term bullish view. The short term requires vigilance against the发酵发酵 of liquidity risk. The medium-to-long term focus should be on the second quarter, especially around May. If the Fed's rate-cutting pace accelerates, precious metals prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, as the "bull market" trend is not yet over. Comparing the nearly ten-fold increase in gold prices during 2000-2011 against a backdrop of a weakening US dollar, significant upside potential remains for precious metals under the current dedollarization logic.
Addressing the difference in performance between gold and silver, Liu Xufeng explained that silver has a stronger commodity attribute and is more affected by sudden supply-demand news, hence its volatility far exceeds that of gold. Medium to long term, silver also benefits from strategic stockpiling, growing industrial demand, and the Fed's monetary easing cycle, with opportunities to stabilize and rise after the second quarter.
Finally, Liu Xufeng reminded investors to guard against liquidity risk by monitoring market funding levels, lending spreads, and inter-asset correlations. Using a combination of futures and options can enhance operational flexibility. In a high-volatility environment, options can yield higher returns when directional views are correct, but attention must be paid to the effects of time value and volatility. The market always involves uncertainty; while seizing medium-to-long-term opportunities in precious metals, investors need to closely track Fed policy, global liquidity, and geopolitical developments, and manage risks effectively.
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