According to the latest research, global smartphone production in the first quarter of 2026 reached approximately 284 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of about 1.7%.
Although memory prices have risen substantially since the second half of 2025, the impact on first-quarter production was not yet pronounced, as brands still held inventories of lower-cost memory and consumer anticipation of significant future retail price hikes spurred demand.
However, as some brands exhaust their low-price memory stockpiles and consecutive quarters of excessive price increases begin to severely impact brand profitability structures, most brands are being forced into a production adjustment phase in the second quarter.
Looking ahead to the full year 2026, global smartphone production is forecast to drop to around 1.051 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 16.2%.
In an extreme scenario where memory price increases show no sign of abating and brands must continually raise retail prices in response, the annual decline could potentially widen further.
Varying Strategic Responses
Brands are adopting different sales strategies. Those with premium product pricing power and strong corporate resources are inclined to invest counter-cyclically to maintain or even expand their market share.
In contrast, brands primarily focused on mid-to-low-end segments, caught between cost pressures and market competition, are being forced to adopt more conservative production plans.
Market Leaders Positioned for Growth
Market leader Samsung produced approximately 62.6 million units in the first quarter.
Boosted by stockpiling for its new Galaxy S series, its quarterly production increased by 7.6% from the previous quarter and showed a slight 2.3% year-on-year rise.
The research indicates that Samsung's smartphone business, supported by group capital and a significant proportion of high-end products, possesses relatively high resilience in this price hike cycle, though the performance of its low-end segment requires ongoing monitoring of consumer market conditions.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) ranked second, with first-quarter production of about 60.2 million units.
This represents a 19.7% increase from the same period last year, supported by new model stockpiling and the launch of the iPhone 17e contributing to output.
Consequently, even amid current high memory prices, Apple can maintain a certain level of profitability compared to other brands already fighting to protect margins.
The analysis suggests Apple is more inclined to expand its market share base in the current environment, laying the groundwork for future growth in paid software service revenue.
Major Brands Face Profit Pressure
The first-quarter production for the three major brands OPPO, Xiaomi (HKEX: 01810), and Vivo showed seasonal declines, with outputs of approximately 29.5 million, 26 million, and 22 million units respectively, ranking them third to fifth in market share.
For the full year, these three brands, which have historically shown strong market performance, face uncertainty in their 2026 production plans due to the severe impact of soaring memory prices on profitability.
Transsion produced about 19.8 million units in the first quarter, essentially flat year-on-year, ranking sixth in quarterly market share.
With its smartphone product structure highly concentrated in entry-level and low-end markets where profit margins are already thin, and possessing limited low-cost inventory, the brand is among the most deeply affected in this super-cycle of memory price increases.
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