On February 11th, shares of BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ) and BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) experienced simultaneous increases in both their A-share and H-share prices. By the midday break, BYD's H-share price had risen by as much as 4.8%, while its A-share price saw a maximum gain of 2.36%.
Market observers attributed the rise in BYD's stock price to the company's disclosure of a timeline for the small-scale production of solid-state batteries. On February 11th, news that BYD's sulfide-based solid-state battery could achieve small-batch production by 2027 drew significant attention. Recently, BYD's official investor relations account stated that the company is exploring multiple technological pathways in the solid-state battery sector. Sulfide-based solid-state batteries are considered a key direction, with potential breakthroughs expected in battery lifespan and fast-charging capabilities. Based on current research and development trends, small-scale production of sulfide-based solid-state batteries is anticipated around 2027.
BYD also indicated that its research in sodium-ion battery technology has progressed to the development stage of a third-generation product platform. Through innovations in highly stable polyanionic system materials and electrochemical system design, the company has addressed technical challenges such as sodium deposition and high-temperature performance, resulting in a sodium-ion battery product capable of over 10,000 cycles. The timing for mass production will be determined by actual market and customer demand.
In fact, BYD had previously disclosed a timeline for the deployment of solid-state batteries as early as February of last year. At that time, Sun Huajun, Chief Technology Officer of Shenzhen BYD Lithium Battery Co., Ltd., revealed at the Second China All-Solid-State Battery Innovation and Development Summit Forum that BYD had begun feasibility studies for the industrialization of solid-state batteries, covering key material technology breakthroughs, battery cell system development, and production line construction. The company plans to commence batch demonstration and vehicle application of all-solid-state batteries around 2027, with large-scale adoption in vehicles expected around 2030.
Apart from BYD, Changan Automobile has also disclosed its schedule for the deployment of all-solid-state batteries. Reportedly, Changan Automobile expects to achieve vehicle verification of solid-state batteries by 2026, with gradual mass production of all-solid-state batteries by 2027, targeting an energy density of 400Wh/kg. The company anticipates the large-scale application of 6C ultra-fast charging by 2027, alongside small-scale demonstration operations of all-solid-state batteries. Commercialization of all-solid-state batteries is projected to occur after 2030.
Yang Hongxin, Chairman and CEO of Svolt Energy Technology Co., Ltd., also commented that significant challenges remain for the large-scale commercialization of all-solid-state batteries, including achieving industry-wide economies of scale and developing lower-cost manufacturing processes. He estimated that large-scale commercialization is unlikely to occur before 2030.
In October of last year, the "Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles 3.0," revised and compiled under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and organized by the China Society of Automotive Engineers, projected that all-solid-state batteries would achieve small-scale application by 2030, with potential for large-scale global promotion by 2035. By then, the comprehensive performance, cost, and environmental adaptability of batteries are expected to better meet consumer demands.
Wu Zhixin, Vice Chairman of the China All-Solid-State Battery Industry-University-Research Collaborative Innovation Platform, acknowledged that the industry is striving to overcome the technical hurdles of all-solid-state batteries, but many challenges still need to be resolved. He suggested that all-solid-state batteries might only begin to enter the commercial usage phase around 2032 to 2033. Before that, semi-solid-state batteries could meet the demands for safety, performance, and low cost, potentially enjoying a commercial window of 5 to 7 years.
Recently, Zhao Yifan, Vice President of SAIC-GM-Wuling, stated in an interview that currently, the price of all-solid-state batteries is higher than that of gold. Even semi-solid-state batteries, which have not yet achieved scale production, cannot match the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries and are currently priced similarly to ternary lithium batteries.
However, Sun Huajun believes that, from a long-term development perspective, after achieving scale, liquid ternary batteries and solid-state ternary batteries could theoretically reach a state of "solid-liquid price parity."
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