BOC International has released a research report increasing the target price for ZTO Express-W (02057) to HK$223. This adjustment reflects enhanced earnings visibility and stronger, more consistent shareholder return measures, driven by the company's steady strategic execution in a rational competitive environment. The report indicates that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's core express delivery revenue accelerated, growing 13% year-on-year and surpassing market expectations. This performance was supported by a 9% year-on-year increase in parcel volume, which was in line with expectations, coupled with an average selling price (ASP) that rose 3% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding forecasts. An adjusted net profit of 2.6 billion yuan was 5% above market consensus. Leveraging its solid core advantages amid ongoing efforts to curb industry over-competition, the firm is expected to be a primary beneficiary as the sector transitions from a low-price, volume-focused model to one that balances volume with quality and is value-oriented.
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