Capital Economics analysts have indicated that the escalating instability in Iran could significantly impact the global oil market. They argue, "The prospect of disruptions to Iran's energy output presents a greater threat to global supply than the situation in Venezuela, particularly as instability could potentially spread beyond Iran's borders to affect supply chains."
According to the institution's data, Iranian crude oil accounts for nearly 15% of China's total crude oil imports. While threats such as a blockade of Venezuela or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices up by $15-$20 per barrel, such increases are likely to be short-lived.
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