Major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Monday, while oil prices experienced a sharp decline. During the session, the three major indices all reached intraday highs with gains exceeding 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by more than 1,100 points, a rise of 2.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 also climbed as much as 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. The market movement followed comments from the U.S. President indicating that discussions had taken place between the U.S. and Iran, and that he had halted planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
At the close, the Dow had gained 631.00 points, or 1.38%, finishing at 46,208.47. The Nasdaq advanced 299.15 points, or 1.38%, to 21,946.76. The S&P 500 rose 74.52 points, or 1.15%, settling at 6,581.00. Among notable stocks, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) increased by 1.7%, and Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose 3.5%. In contrast, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) declined 4.39%, and SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) fell 1.02%.
In European markets, Germany's DAX 30 index advanced 263.24 points, or 1.18%, to close at 22,660.67. The UK's FTSE 100 index edged down 15.32 points, or 0.15%, to 9,903.01. France's CAC 40 gained 60.58 points, or 0.79%, finishing at 7,726.20. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 74.97 points, or 1.36%, to 5,576.25. Spain's IBEX 35 increased by 192.15 points, or 1.15%, to 16,906.15, and Italy's FTSE MIB index added 388.60 points, or 0.91%, to close at 43,229.50.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin rose over 3.8% to $70,979.63, while Ethereum increased 4.79% to $2,161.48.
Oil prices saw a significant downturn. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery dropped by $10.10, settling at $88.13 per barrel, a decline of 10.28%. Similarly, Brent crude for May delivery fell $12.25 to close at $99.94 per barrel, marking a 10.92% decrease.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.69% to end the day at 98.958. In late New York trading, one euro was worth $1.1607, up from $1.1559 in the previous session. One pound sterling traded at $1.3425, higher than the prior $1.3337. The dollar bought 158.45 Japanese yen, down from 159.22, and was valued at 0.7865 Swiss francs, a decrease from 0.7885. Against the Canadian dollar, it rose slightly to 1.3719 from 1.3707, while it fell to 9.3095 Swedish krona from 9.3594.
Precious metals continued their decline, with spot gold falling 2.04% to $4,406.77 per ounce. Spot silver also decreased, closing at $69.168 per ounce.
In macroeconomic news, Goldman Sachs raised its probability of a U.S. economic recession to 30%. The firm cited surging oil and natural gas prices as a key factor, increasing the likelihood of a downturn within the next 12 months by 5 percentage points. The energy price shock, combined with tightening financial conditions due to conflict in the Middle East and the fading effects of major tax legislation passed last summer, led Goldman's chief economist to raise the baseline year-end unemployment forecast to 4.6%. The firm still expects the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts in September and December. It also projects U.S. GDP growth in the second half of the year to be below trend, with an annualized rate between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to persistent disruptions in energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs also raised its oil price forecast for the year earlier on Monday. The bank stated that the conflict could elevate global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, with the potential for a two to three times greater impact in a worst-case scenario.
A Federal Reserve Governor stated that it is premature to adjust expectations for four rate cuts in 2026. The Governor emphasized that the central bank should not base policy on short-term factors related to the conflict involving the U.S. and Israel in Iran. The official noted that all relevant information should be gathered before altering the Fed's outlook, and that it is too early to have a clear view of the situation over the next 12 months. The conflict in the Middle East has driven a significant rise in oil prices, which could exert upward pressure on inflation while negatively impacting economic growth and the labor market. The Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady at its meeting last week, marking the second consecutive pause. Policymakers acknowledged increased economic uncertainty due to the escalating war, and the Fed Chair stressed the need for more progress on reducing inflation. The dissenting Governor favored a 25-basis-point rate cut. However, the official acknowledged that sustained high oil prices could gradually affect other goods and services but maintained that their pre-conflict expectation of four rate cuts this year remains unchanged.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget concerning disclosure requirements for the digital asset industry and for hedge funds and private equity funds. One proposal includes an "innovation exemption" mechanism, allowing relevant enterprises a temporary exemption from registering as regulated entities like brokers or exchanges. The other rule involves adjustments to Form PF, used for disclosing fund performance and risks. The SEC Chairman had previously postponed the effective date for the new Form PF rules to October 1 and indicated a focus on exploring ways to reduce the disclosure burden.
An Iranian official stated that messages have been exchanged between Iran and the U.S. through Egypt and Turkey. The official, speaking on the 23rd, said the U.S. President does not have the authority to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. The official indicated that the communication aims to ease tensions, but the U.S. has not yet accepted Iran's two core demands: compensation for damages and acknowledgment of violations against Iran. The official also noted that options for closing the Strait of Hormuz and laying naval mines remain part of Iran's preparations for potential actions. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran had received messages from some friendly countries regarding U.S. calls for negotiations to end the war and had provided appropriate responses based on its principled stance, adding that no direct negotiations with the U.S. have taken place.
The U.S. plans to contribute $250 million to form an investment alliance focused on energy and critical minerals. A U.S. administration official stated that the government will manage the funds and seek commitments of up to $1 trillion from sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors. Other participants are expected to include SoftBank Group, Temasek Holdings, and the Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Investment Company wealth fund. The official said the primary investment focus will be securing energy and rare earth supplies for the U.S. and its allies, particularly in areas of "mineral security, logistics, and potential energy security infrastructure." The U.S. and the institutional investors will review a list of potential projects.
In corporate news, Apple Inc. is preparing to introduce advertising within its Maps application, as part of broader efforts to generate more revenue from its services business. According to sources, an announcement could come as early as this month. The system is expected to function similarly to ads in Google Maps, allowing retailers and brands to bid for prominent ad placements in search results. For example, a restaurant could bid on a search term like "sushi," and the highest bidder's location would appear at the top of relevant search results. This approach is similar to practices used by Yelp on its platform.
MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) is accelerating its Bitcoin acquisition strategy through a financing plan aiming to raise over $42 billion. The company plans to sell $21 billion of Class A common stock and $21 billion of perpetual preferred stock in separate offerings on the open market. After purchasing 1,031 Bitcoins between March 16 and 22, the company now holds more than 762,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $54 billion.
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