SpaceX closed at USD 141.50, up 0.45%.
Large options trades displayed a sharp directional tension: a $3.89 million in-the-money bear put spread signaled fresh downside positioning, while a $4.94 million short put showed a premium-collecting, contrarian willingness to own weakness. Together, the tape leaned bearish even as the surface held relatively expensive implied volatility.
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Options Indicators
SPCX has an implied volatility of 54.14%, and with an IV percentile of 75.83%, current option volatility sits in the elevated zone, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to their own recent history. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.55 suggests implied volatility is running below realized volatility, which somewhat offsets the rich percentile reading and implies the market is not fully extrapolating past actual movement into forward option pricing. Overall, despite the lower IV/HV relationship, the high IV percentile still points to a relatively expensive options backdrop.
The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.78.
Large Trades
A bearish put spread with a $3.89 million net debit was the largest displayed trade, built by buying the September 18, 2026 $230.00 put and selling the September 18, 2026 $210.00 put. With SPCX referenced at $141.50, both strikes are in the money, and this structure is clearly a bear put spread rather than a synthetic position. The trade expresses a downside view through a debit-paid spread, capping both risk and payoff while targeting further weakness into the 2026 expiration. The strategic intent is a directional bearish bet with defined risk, and the use of an in-the-money vertical suggests the trader wanted substantial downside exposure while partially offsetting premium outlay through the short lower-strike put.
A $4.94 million short put was the other highlighted large trade, consisting of selling the September 17, 2027 $115.00 put. With the underlying at $141.50, that strike is out of the money, so this is a bullish premium-collection trade that benefits if SPCX stays above $115.00 through expiration. The seller is effectively expressing confidence in downside support well below the current price, while taking on the obligation to buy shares at the strike if assigned. Strategically, this points to a constructive medium- to long-term outlook, with the trader using elevated downside distance to harvest premium rather than pressing for immediate upside through calls.
Overall, the large-trade flow leans bearish. Even though there is meaningful put-selling activity that reflects willingness to own weakness and collect premium below the market, the most important directional expression is the sizable in-the-money bear put spread, and the broader bulk-order figures also favor bearish positioning. Taken together, the tape suggests institutional traders are more focused on protecting against or positioning for downside than on chasing upside, leaving the near-to-medium-term sentiment tilted negative.
Strategy Reference
For a lower assignment probability on the short-put side, a seller could consider a strike near the $100.00 area, further below the $115.00 level already sold, while traders wanting defined risk without posting large margin may prefer a narrower bear put spread such as the $150.00/$130.00 September 2026 structure.
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