Wall Street's institutional and retail investors alike are eagerly anticipating the potential IPO of SpaceX, the space exploration unicorn valued at $800 billion. If realized, this record-breaking offering could raise over $300 billion, fueling founder Elon Musk's Mars ambitions and potentially catapulting the rocket and satellite company's valuation beyond $1 trillion.
Insiders reveal SpaceX is targeting a mid-to-late 2026 listing, with plans to sell a 5% stake at a $1.5 trillion valuation—surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion 2019 IPO as the largest ever. Proceeds may fund ambitious projects like space-based AI data centers and Starship development for lunar and Martian missions.
Despite SpaceX's robust launch business and Starlink's revenue growth (projected at $22–24 billion in 2026), history warns of post-IPO struggles for hyper-valued firms. Jay Ritter, a University of Florida professor emeritus, notes that only 7 of 45 companies with >40x sales multiples since 1980 traded higher after three years, with most underperforming benchmarks by 63%.
Musk’s unconventional leadership—evident in Tesla’s regulatory clashes and his $1 trillion compensation demand—adds volatility. Yet investors like GAMCO’s Christopher Marangi argue such risks are inherent to disruptive innovators. Neuberger Berman’s Dan Hanson highlights SpaceX’s rare "steak-and-sizzle" appeal: proven operations (Starlink) paired with futuristic potential (space AI).
If successful, SpaceX could join the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta) to form a "Great Eight," reshaping market leadership. Musk’s vision of orbital AI computing—touted as cost-efficient and energy-saving—could further redefine tech’s next frontier.
However, Ritter cautions that even a $2 trillion SpaceX would offer limited upside (100–200% returns), echoing past IPO cautionary tales like Beyond Meat and Snowflake. Tesla’s outlier success underscores the high-stakes gamble.
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