车市十年来首次爽约“银十” ，狂飙的电车减速了

华尔街见闻2022-11-08

作者：吴悠今年的“金九银十“车市行情与往年有明显差异，10月我国乘用车的整体零售销量为184万辆，同比增长7.3%，环比则出现了4.3%的下滑，这也是自2013年以来首次出现“金九银十”环比下降；而新能源汽车的10月销量水平和增幅也明显有异于此前，新能源汽车批发销量为67.6万辆，同比增速为85.8%，相比今年前九个月100%以上三位数的增速出现了明显收敛，环比更是增长势头明显不再，仅为0.4%，...

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Mingzu
2022-11-08
Mingzu
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yuliang559
2022-11-08
yuliang559
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- 铭发:
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- yuliang559:
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hangyuliang
2022-11-08
hangyuliang
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- hangyuliang:
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Linda2240
2022-11-08
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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674431><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：吴悠今年的“金九银十“车市行情与往年有明显差异，10月我国乘用车的整体零售销量为184万辆，同比增长7.3%，环比则出现了4.3%的下滑，这也是自2013年以来首次出现“金九银十”环比下降；而新能源汽车的10月销量水平和增幅也明显有异于此前，新能源汽车批发销量为67.6万辆，同比增速为85.8%，相比今年前九个月100%以上三位数的增速出现了明显收敛，环比更是增长势头明显不再，仅为0.4%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674431\">Source 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down","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e14375e22d52d497def6ce74d1b57c3","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"作者：吴悠今年的“金九银十“车市行情与往年有明显差异，10月我国乘用车的整体零售销量为184万辆，同比增长7.3%，环比则出现了4.3%的下滑，这也是自2013年以来首次出现“金九银十”环比下降；而新能源汽车的10月销量水平和增幅也明显有异于此前，新能源汽车批发销量为67.6万辆，同比增速为85.8%，相比今年前九个月100%以上三位数的增速出现了明显收敛，环比更是增长势头明显不再，仅为0.4%，勉强保持持平。新能源汽车渗透率方面，继8月新能源车厂商批发渗透率首次突破30%达到30.1%，9月新能源汽车零售渗透率首次突破30%大关达到31.8%以后，10月新能源汽车的渗透率还在继续维持30%以上水平，之后重点需要关注的方向在于已经突破了30%大关的新能源汽车的渗透率能否维持稳定，以及其增长速度是否会放缓下来。1、“金九”纯度尚可，“银十”明显爽约今年车市的“金九银十”行情明显与往年有所不同，其中“金九”纯度尚可，9月我国乘用车的整体零售销量为192.2万辆，同比增长21.5%，环比增长2.8%，而新能源汽车的9月批发销量为67.5万辆，同比维持高增长达到94.9%，环比也出现了6.2%的增长，新能源汽车零售渗透率也是首次突破30%大关达到31.8%。但“银十”却出现明显爽约，如前文所提，10月我国无论是整体乘用车的销量还是新能源汽车的销量同环比水平相较以往都有明显差距（以新能源汽车势头最佳的2021年和2020年为例，再往前的平均乘用车环比增速也在2%以上），高增长态势略有熄火。2021年10月我国乘用车市场零售达到171.7万辆，环比增长8.6%，新能源乘用车批发销量达到36.8万辆，环比增长6.3%，同比增长148.1%；而2020年我国乘用车市场零售达到199.2万辆，同比增长8.0%，环比增长4.1%，新能源乘用车批发销量为14.4万辆，同比增长119.8%，环比增长15.9%。2、头部车企波动较小，造车新势力普遍下滑从10月各大新能源车企整体的销量水平来看，头部的新能源车企如比亚迪和特斯拉等的产品销量波动其实较小，但是此前保持销量高增长的造车新势力们却面临普遍下滑的趋势。其中，头部企业中，比亚迪10月销量达到21.78万辆，连续两个月销量超过20万辆，同比增长168.78%，环比增长8.2%，依旧保持月增1-2万销量的趋势不动摇，在整个新能源汽车市场中的占比也稳步达到30%以上，目前累计销量已经达到140万辆左右，全年销量超过年初目标150万辆毫无压力。特斯拉的10月销量则达到7.17万辆，其中国内销量为1.72万辆，出口销量则达到5.45万辆，考虑到10月24日，特斯拉旗下两款热门车型Model Y和Model 3的全系车型都进行了官方降价，降价区间在1.4万元至3.7万元之间，降价幅度则在5%左右，后续11月和12月的特斯拉年末销量行情或不需要担心。但10月份中老牌和二线的造车新势力们的销量都不佳，没能维持上月的交付水平,其中御三家蔚来、理想和小鹏的销量分别达到10059辆、10052辆和5101辆，环比各自下跌7.5%、12.8%和39.8%，同比增速也从此前的三位数跌落至30%左右，小鹏更是首次出现同比下滑仅50%，二线造车实力这次也未能免难，零跑的10月份销量为7026辆，环比下滑36.7%下滑幅度仅次于小鹏。销量下滑的背后的原因在于两点，一方面在于造车新势力的加速内耗，今年年初开始各大造车新势力就几乎以季度为单位频频发布新车型，产品迭代速度过快，使得内耗不仅发生在整个造车新势力的大行业中，而且在各自品牌内部其实也明显出现相互抢单，这点从各大造车新势力的内部车型的销量此消彼长的趋势上可见一斑。换而言之，造车新势力的车型数量的确增加了，像蔚来车型从三款车增至六款车（ES8、ES6、EC6、ET7和ES7），小鹏也增加到四款车（P5，P7，P3i和G9），理想也增加至两款车且做好了后续规划（L9、L8、L7和L6），但是很显然车型的增加并未成功转换成销量的提升，新车型上市后的销量提升都是以自家老车型销量下跌为代价，例如10月下滑最大的小鹏的P7和P5的销量表现。另一方面，则在于价格屠夫特斯拉在10月份的又一次降价，使得自身性价比提升从而拉低其他品牌车型销量的同时，也让部分消费者选择观望降低了即时需求，想要看其他车企是否会跟随降价，事实也是紧接着造车新势力的确所有回应，例如零跑提供老车主可转交的C11 1.2万元和T03 0.8万元的返现券，问界旗下M5和M7车型则可在付尾款时可直接减免8000元，更不用说早在特斯拉降价前小鹏就已经有所行动，多次降价促销，整体来看，10月中旬乘用车总体市场折扣率约为14.0%，整体价格相比上月（13.7%）有所扩大。最后，有关造车新势力的更多相关信息在华尔街见闻·见智研究此前的多篇文章《造车新势力火拼结束，传统车企开始打扫战场？| 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