SpaceX closed at USD 152.16, down 2.80%.
Institutional-sized options activity revealed two dominant bearish synthetic short positions in long-dated 2027 and 2028 expirations, with net debits of USD 5.37 million and USD 3.06 million. The combined flow signals conviction for sustained downside pressure in SpaceX over the medium to long term, outweighing smaller bullish put sales and scattered call buying in the session’s tape.
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Options Indicators
SpaceX currently has an implied volatility of 59.06%, and with an IV percentile of 76.30%, current option volatility sits in an elevated range, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to their own historical levels. The IV/HV ratio of 1.16 further suggests implied volatility is running above realized volatility, meaning the options market is embedding a modest premium for forward uncertainty.
The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.41.
Large Trades
A bearish synthetic put position with a USD 5.37 million net debit was the largest displayed trade, built by buying the August 20, 2027 USD 150.00 put and selling the August 20, 2027 USD 200.00 call, with both legs out of the money versus the USD 152.16 reference stock price. This structure functions as a synthetic short, pairing downside protection and bearish exposure through the long put with upside capping through the short call. The use of a long-dated expiration and a multi-million-dollar net outlay suggests a deliberate longer-term bearish directional bet rather than short-term hedging, indicating the trader expects SpaceX to weaken materially over time.
A second bearish synthetic put followed with a USD 3.06 million net debit, consisting of a purchase of the January 21, 2028 USD 140.00 put and a sale of the January 21, 2028 USD 270.00 call, again with both options out of the money. Like the first trade, this combination expresses a synthetic short view, but with an even wider upside call strike and a lower put strike, pointing to a patient, longer-dated bearish stance that seeks downside participation while financing part of the put premium by giving up substantial upside.
Overall, the bulk-order flow is clearly bearish. The dominant large trades were both synthetic short structures established with meaningful net debits in long-dated expirations, showing traders were willing to commit sizable premium to position for downside rather than merely collect income. While there were some smaller bullish put sales and isolated upside call activity elsewhere in the tape, they were outweighed by the concentration, size, and conviction of the bearish structures. The options flow therefore points to a negative medium- to long-term outlook for SpaceX, with institutional-sized positioning suggesting expectations for continued downside pressure.
Strategy Reference
Given the elevated IV percentile, premium sellers may consider a bearish call spread such as selling the August 20, 2027 USD 200.00 call and buying a higher strike call to limit margin while aligning with the prevailing synthetic-short flow.
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