特斯拉Q4盈利高于预期，开始局部真正无人驾驶，投资xAI 20亿，Cybecab和机器人待量产

华尔街见闻01-29

Q4特斯拉营收同比由增转降3%、略低于预期、首次年度营收下滑，当季EPS盈利降17%仍强于预期，毛利率升破20%，储能部署增29%至新高14.2GWh；1月开始在奥斯汀限量提供无安全监督员的Robotaxi；Cybercab、Semi卡车、储能系统Megapack 3均按计划今年开始量产；Optimus第一代生产线正铺设，目标今年底开始量产；预计Q1完成20亿美元认购xAI股票。股价盘后一度涨超...

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It invests 2 billion in xAI, and Cybecab and robots are waiting for mass production","themeId":"4541227b97a0329c8c08605211934a89","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92901472466c1a9693cec328c095aa6","symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2},"content_text":"Q4特斯拉营收同比由增转降3%、略低于预期、首次年度营收下滑，当季EPS盈利降17%仍强于预期，毛利率升破20%，储能部署增29%至新高14.2GWh；1月开始在奥斯汀限量提供无安全监督员的Robotaxi；Cybercab、Semi卡车、储能系统Megapack 3均按计划今年开始量产；Optimus第一代生产线正铺设，目标今年底开始量产；预计Q1完成20亿美元认购xAI股票。股价盘后一度涨超4%。高管称今年资本支出超200亿美元，股价曾回吐多数涨幅。【特斯拉2025年四季度业绩电话会议】特斯拉四季度营收由三季度的两位数同比大增转为下滑，电动车交付量连续第二年下滑，成为营收与汽车毛利承压的主要原因，但EPS盈利高于预期，能源与服务业务继续放量，披露投资xAI、无人驾驶出租车Robotaxi等“物理 AI”相关业务的进展。盘后公布财报后，股价盘后跳涨，盘后涨幅曾超过4%。盘后上涨更像是源于特斯拉短期的业绩并没有太差，长期的叙事——Robotaxi/Optimus/xAI方面继续给估值提供想象空间。业绩电话会上，特斯拉高管称2026年全年资本支出将超过200亿美元。此后股价曾回吐盘后多数涨幅。‘’虽然特斯拉四季度营收由三季度的两位数同比大增转为下滑，但储能部署装机量创纪录，应被市场视为短期内对冲汽车端下行的“硬支撑”。更重要的是，特斯拉强调“物理 AI”进展与对外投资。特斯拉披露，从本月开始，在得州奥斯汀的部分Robotaxi服务车辆上移除人类安全监督员，开始迈向真正的无人驾驶；Robotaxi专属的产品Cybercab的今年量产计划处于正轨；在铺设人形机器人Optimus的第一代生产线；公司已与xAI 达成投资约20亿美元的协议，这把市场叙事又拉回到“AI+机器人带来长期可选项溢价”。特斯拉还称，Robotaxi的专属产品Cybercab、Semi卡车、去年9月发布的新版储能系统Megapack 3均按计划将于2026年开始量产，再次确认了发布三季度财报时提到的量产时间计划。Q4营收由增转降 能源业务是亮点特斯拉四季度同比降约3%，至249.01亿美元，基本处于250亿美元左右的华尔街预期区间内或略低于预期。换言之，营收并未出现很大意外，既非显著高于预期，也非远逊预期。2025年全年，特斯拉营收948.27亿美元，较上年下降3%，为公司史上首次年度营收下滑。主要业务中，四季度汽车营收176.93亿美元，同比下降10%，而三季度增长6%；能源发电与储能业务收入38.37亿美元，同比增长由三季度的44%放缓至25%，服务与其他业务收入同比增长18%至33.71亿美元。能源与服务对冲了整车营收下行的部分影响。交付下滑是本次营收与汽车盈利下降的直接触发因素之一。虽然特斯拉称在APAC 地区的交付量创记录，但总体交付量四季度同比下降16%至41.8227万辆。市场此前对交付的担忧已有积累，投资者更关注公司是否能在 2026 年把产能与需求重新匹配（例如 Cybercab、Semi 量产节奏）以恢复规模化效应。四季度储能业务部署装机量达到创纪录的14.2GWh，同比增长29%，能源毛利单季度创历史新高。特斯拉称，继续推进 Megapack3 / Megablock于2026年量产的计划。能源业务不再只是“增长插曲”，而是能在短期对抗汽车端季节性/政策性波动的稳健业务线；市场因此对特斯拉“多元化增长”能力的信心增强，亦是盘后股价反应的一个重要推动力。Q4毛利率改善  营业费用抬升吞噬部分利润特斯拉四季度GAAP口径下总毛利同比增长20%至50.09亿美元，毛利率由三季度的18%升至20.1%，同比提高386个基点；当季营业利润同比下降11%至14.09亿美元，降幅远低于三季度的40%，营业利润率5.7%。特斯拉指出研发（R&D）与 AI 项目投入、SBC（股权激励）等支出抬升营业费用。特斯拉四季度GAAP口径下每股收益（EPS）为0.24美元，非GAAP口径下EPS为0.5美元，同比下降17%、较三季度的31%的降幅缓和。主流预期的四季度EPS分布在0.3到0.5美元区间，不同机构口径差异较大。以此看来，特斯拉公布的 GAAP口径EPS 低于某些较乐观的点估，但非GAAP口径EPS 接近或超过部分机构预期，高于彭博调查预期的0.45美元。市场把焦点放在汽车毛利能否维持，以及AI/机器人研发投入何时见到杠杆作用。目前汽车毛利在分产品、定价与 mix 的影响下显示部分改善，但高额的 SBC和 AI 项目支出压缩了当期 GAAP 利润。多数分析师此前对 EPS 的估计已经把这些支出考虑在内，实际 EPS 的偏差取决于不同机构对非 GAAP 项目的口径。继续押注“物理AI”：Robotaxi、FSD、Optimus进展及投资xAIRobotaxi方面，特斯拉透露，2025年12月在奥斯汀开始测试提供无安全监督员的Robotaxi服务，并于2026年1月开始在奥斯汀提供有限度的无安全监督员车辆服务。公司同时在湾区运营有带安全员的服务，并已覆盖圣何塞机场，后续在其他机场扩展需获许可。Robotaxi iOS 应用在公司服务区域“不再有候补名单”（no waitlist），且公司已列出，计划2026年上半年将服务覆盖到美国多个城市，包括：得州的达拉斯和休斯顿、亚利桑那州的凤凰城、佛罗里达州的迈阿密、奥兰多和Tampa、内华达州的拉斯维加斯。公司把“无监督 Robotaxi 放入商业运营”也计入了 CEO 绩效奖的交付指标口径。自动驾驶辅助系统FSD方面，特斯拉称，FSD v14 版已带来更全面的辅助驾驶与“找停车位/自动泊车”等功能，并表示全球车队能每天收集相当于超过500 年连续驾驶的数据量（用于训练）。公司还在 2025 年把 监督版FSD（Supervised）推广到韩国，并在欧洲数国提供“乘车体验”。FSD 的订阅制收入在2025 年“连续环比增长并且同比翻倍”，公司从本季开始逐步把一次性付费购置选项退场，转为月度订阅为主。四季度，FSD的活跃订阅用户同比增长38%至110万。机器人方面，特斯拉称，Optimus 在 2025 年继续重大升级，包括最新手部设计，第三代Optimus Gen-3 为首个“面向规模化量产”的设计；公司已开始为首条生产线做供应链与产线准备，目标“在2026年底前启动量产线”，长期产能目标为最终达到一年100万台。AI领域投资方面，特斯拉公布，与马斯克旗下AI初创公司xAI达成框架协议，并同意以约20亿美元的资金认购xAI的E系列优先股，交易需满足常规监管条件，预计在2026年一季度完成。特斯拉称，此投资属于公司的总体规划第四部分（Master Plan Part IV）框架，旨在为物理世界的AI 产品与服务建立合作基础。特斯拉正在开发将AI融入现实世界的产品和服务。同时，xAI正在开发领先的数字AI产品和服务，例如其大语言模型Grok。风","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":526758231069136,"gmtCreate":1769638573465,"gmtModify":1769638575725,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/526758231069136","repostId":1171505578,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171505578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769635107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171505578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-01-29 05:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's Q4 profit is higher than expected, and it begins to partially truly drive without driving. It invests 2 billion in xAI, and Cybecab and robots are waiting for mass production","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171505578","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特斯拉2025年Q4营收249.01亿美元，同比下降3%；调整后净利润17.61亿美元，同比下降16%。财报发布后，特斯拉盘后涨超3%。","content":"<html><head></head><body>In Q4, Tesla's revenue turned from an increase to a decrease of 3% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, and its first annual revenue declined. The EPS profit fell by 17% in the quarter, which was still stronger than expected. The gross profit margin rose above 20%, and the energy storage deployment increased by 29% to a new high of 14.2 GWh; Limited availability of Robotaxi without safety supervisors in Austin begins in January; Cybercab, Semi truck, and energy storage system Megapack 3 all start mass production this year as planned; The first-generation production line of Optimus is being laid, and it is targeted to start mass production by the end of this year; It is expected to complete the subscription of xAI shares of US $2 billion in Q1. The stock price once rose by more than 4% after hours. Executives said capital expenditures exceeded $20 billion this year, and the stock price has given up most of its gains.【<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/live/1854762639318377/\" title=\"特斯拉2025年四季度业绩电话会议\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Tesla's fourth quarter 2025 results conference call</a>】<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26f67bc0e812b5e943574a9e31bf1b40\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/>Tesla's revenue in the fourth quarter turned from a double-digit year-on-year increase in the third quarter to a decline. The delivery of electric vehicles declined for the second consecutive year, which became the main reason for the pressure on revenue and automobile gross profit, but EPS profit was higher than expected. The energy and service business continued to increase its volume, disclosing the progress of investing in \"physical AI\" related businesses such as xAI and driverless taxi Robotaxi.After the financial report was announced after the hours, the stock price jumped after the hours, with an increase of more than 4% after the hours. The after-hours rise is more like Tesla's short-term performance is not too bad, and the long-term narrative-Robotaxi/Optimus/xAI continues to provide imagination for valuation. During the earnings conference call, Tesla executives said that capital expenditures for the whole year of 2026 will exceed US $20 billion. Since then, the stock price has given up most of its after-hours gains. ‘’<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c767000cf5b8b0692adfc57c7bdec0f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"430\"/>Although Tesla's revenue in the fourth quarter turned from a double-digit year-on-year increase in the third quarter to a decline, the installed capacity of energy storage deployment hit a record, which should be regarded by the market as a \"hard support\" to hedge the downturn of the automotive side in the short term. More importantly, Tesla emphasizes the progress of \"physical AI\" and foreign investment.Tesla disclosed that starting this month, it will remove human safety supervisors from some Robotaxi service vehicles in Austin, Texas, and begin to move towards true driverless driving; The mass production plan of Robotaxi's exclusive product Cybercab is on track this year; Laying the first generation production line of humanoid robot Optimus; The company has reached an agreement with xAI to invest approximately US $2 billion, which brings the market narrative back to \"AI + robots bring long-term optional premiums.\"Tesla also said that Robotaxi's exclusive products Cybercab, Semi truck, and the new version of the energy storage system Megapack 3 released in September last year will all start mass production in 2026 as planned, reconfirming the mass production time mentioned in the third quarter financial report plan.<h2 id=\"id_2133268308\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Q4 revenue turns from increase to decrease, energy business is the highlight</h2>Tesla fell about 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter to US $24.901 billion, basically within Wall Street's expected range of around US $25 billion or slightly lower than expected. In other words, there were no big surprises in revenue, neither significantly higher than expected nor far worse than expected.For the whole year of 2025, Tesla's revenue was US $94.827 billion, a decrease of 3% from the previous year, the first annual revenue decline in the company's history.Among the main businesses, automobile revenue in the fourth quarter was US $17.693 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, while an increase of 6% in the third quarter; Energy power generation and energy storage business revenue was US $3.837 billion, a year-on-year growth slowing down from 44% in the third quarter to 25%, and service and other business revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to US $3.371 billion. Energy and services offset part of the impact of the decline in vehicle revenue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d283a01953b5cb6f2494116e3130fce\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1438\"/>The decline in delivery is one of the direct triggers of this decline in revenue and automobile profit. Although Tesla said its delivery volume in the APAC region hit a record, the overall delivery volume fell 16% year-on-year to 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter. The market's previous concerns about delivery have accumulated, and investors are more concerned about whether the company can re-match production capacity with demand in 2026 (such as Cybercab, Semi mass production rhythm) to restore scale effects.In the fourth quarter, the deployed installed capacity of the energy storage business reached a record 14.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29%, and energy gross profit hit a record high in a single quarter. Tesla said it will continue to advance its plan to mass-produce Megapack3/Megablock in 2026.The energy business is no longer just a \"growth episode\", but a stable business line that can resist seasonal/policy fluctuations on the automotive side in the short term; As a result, the market's confidence in Tesla's ability to \"diversify growth\" has increased, which is also an important driving force for the after-hours stock price reaction.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ad218deb5d19ed1727de6cd359ea71\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1323\" tg-height=\"705\"/><h2 id=\"id_1660784080\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Q4 gross profit margin improves, operating expenses rise, swallows up some profits</h2>Tesla's total gross profit under GAAP in the fourth quarter increased by 20% year-on-year to US $5.009 billion, and its gross profit margin rose from 18% in the third quarter to 20.1%, a year-on-year increase of 386 basis points; The operating profit for the quarter fell 11% year-on-year to US $1.409 billion, a decline much lower than the 40% in the third quarter, and the operating profit margin was 5.7%. Tesla pointed out that research and development (R&D) and AI project investment, SBC (equity incentive) and other expenditures raised operating expenses.Tesla's earnings per share (EPS) under the GAAP caliber in the fourth quarter was US $0.24, and EPS under the non-GAAP caliber was US $0.5, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, which was moderate from the 31% decline in the third quarter.The mainstream expected fourth-quarter EPS is distributed in the range of US $0.3 to US $0.5, and the caliber of different institutions varies greatly. From this point of view, Tesla's GAAP caliber EPS is lower than some more optimistic estimates, but the non-GAAP caliber EPS is close to or exceeds the expectations of some institutions and higher than the $0.45 expected by the Bloomberg survey.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c63b8c73b03b586b218631572cb5f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1361\" tg-height=\"672\"/>The market focuses on whether the gross profit of automobiles can be maintained, and when AI/robot R&D investment will see leverage. At present, the gross profit of automobiles shows some improvement under the influence of sub-product, pricing and mix, but the high SBC and AI project expenditure has compressed the current GAAP profit. Most analysts' previous EPS estimates have taken these expenditures into account, and the deviation of actual EPS depends on the caliber of different institutions for non-GAAP projects.<h2 id=\"id_3598672790\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Continue to Bet on 'Physical AI': Robotaxi, FSD, Optimus Progress and Investment in xAI</h2>In terms of Robotaxi, Tesla revealed that it will begin testing the provision of Robotaxi services without safety supervisors in Austin in December 2025, and will begin providing limited vehicle services without safety supervisors in Austin in January 2026. The company also operates services with security officers in the Bay Area and has covered San Jose Airport. Subsequent expansion at other airports requires permission.The Robotaxi iOS application has \"no waitlist\" in the company's service area, and the company has listed that it plans to cover the service to multiple cities in the United States in the first half of 2026, including: Dallas and Houston in Texas, Phoenix in Arizona, Miami, Orlando and Tampa in Florida, Las Vegas, Nevada. The company's \"unsupervised Robotaxi put into commercial operations\" is also included in the delivery indicators of the CEO Performance Award.In terms of autonomous driving assistance system FSD, Tesla said that the FSD v14 version has brought more comprehensive functions such as assisted driving and \"finding parking spaces/automatic parking\", and said that the global fleet can collect the equivalent of more than 500 years of continuous driving every day. The amount of data (used for training). The company will also promote the Supervised version of FSD (Supervised) to South Korea in 2025 and provide \"ride experience\" in several European countries.FSD's subscription-based revenue will \"continue to grow quarter-on-quarter and double year-on-year\" in 2025. Starting from this quarter, the company will gradually withdraw the one-time paid purchase option and switch to monthly subscriptions. In the fourth quarter, FSD's active subscribers increased by 38% year-on-year to 1.1 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57210074f695001b0080e46095008d73\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1292\" tg-height=\"716\"/>In terms of robots, Tesla said that Optimus will continue to undergo major upgrades in 2025, including the latest hand design, and the third-generation Optimus Gen-3 is the first design \"for large-scale mass production\"; The company has begun to prepare the supply chain and production line for the first production line, with the goal of \"starting the mass production line before the end of 2026\", and the long-term production capacity target is to eventually reach 1 million units a year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8a17e0ab45ad7bca340627faad86429\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1216\" tg-height=\"704\"/>In terms of investment in the AI field, Tesla announced that it has reached a framework agreement with Musk's AI startup xAI, and agreed to subscribe for xAI's E-series preferred shares rights with approximately US $2 billion. Completed in the first quarter of the year.Tesla said that this investment belongs to the company's Master Plan Part IV framework, which aims to establish a foundation for cooperation in AI products and services in the physical world. Tesla is developing products and services that integrate AI into the real world. At the same time, xAI is developing leading digital AI products and services, such as its large language model Grok.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80814a019f1f5d3ea388f9f96b90ccf4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1306\" tg-height=\"681\"/>wind</body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Q4 profit is higher than expected, and it begins to partially truly drive without driving. It invests 2 billion in xAI, and Cybecab and robots are waiting for mass production</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Q4 profit is higher than expected, and it begins to partially truly drive without driving. It invests 2 billion in xAI, and Cybecab and robots are waiting for mass production\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2026-01-29 05:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>In Q4, Tesla's revenue turned from an increase to a decrease of 3% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, and its first annual revenue declined. The EPS profit fell by 17% in the quarter, which was still stronger than expected. The gross profit margin rose above 20%, and the energy storage deployment increased by 29% to a new high of 14.2 GWh; Limited availability of Robotaxi without safety supervisors in Austin begins in January; Cybercab, Semi truck, and energy storage system Megapack 3 all start mass production this year as planned; The first-generation production line of Optimus is being laid, and it is targeted to start mass production by the end of this year; It is expected to complete the subscription of xAI shares of US $2 billion in Q1. The stock price once rose by more than 4% after hours. Executives said capital expenditures exceeded $20 billion this year, and the stock price has given up most of its gains.【<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/live/1854762639318377/\" title=\"特斯拉2025年四季度业绩电话会议\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Tesla's fourth quarter 2025 results conference call</a>】<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26f67bc0e812b5e943574a9e31bf1b40\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/>Tesla's revenue in the fourth quarter turned from a double-digit year-on-year increase in the third quarter to a decline. The delivery of electric vehicles declined for the second consecutive year, which became the main reason for the pressure on revenue and automobile gross profit, but EPS profit was higher than expected. The energy and service business continued to increase its volume, disclosing the progress of investing in \"physical AI\" related businesses such as xAI and driverless taxi Robotaxi.After the financial report was announced after the hours, the stock price jumped after the hours, with an increase of more than 4% after the hours. The after-hours rise is more like Tesla's short-term performance is not too bad, and the long-term narrative-Robotaxi/Optimus/xAI continues to provide imagination for valuation. During the earnings conference call, Tesla executives said that capital expenditures for the whole year of 2026 will exceed US $20 billion. Since then, the stock price has given up most of its after-hours gains. ‘’<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c767000cf5b8b0692adfc57c7bdec0f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"430\"/>Although Tesla's revenue in the fourth quarter turned from a double-digit year-on-year increase in the third quarter to a decline, the installed capacity of energy storage deployment hit a record, which should be regarded by the market as a \"hard support\" to hedge the downturn of the automotive side in the short term. More importantly, Tesla emphasizes the progress of \"physical AI\" and foreign investment.Tesla disclosed that starting this month, it will remove human safety supervisors from some Robotaxi service vehicles in Austin, Texas, and begin to move towards true driverless driving; The mass production plan of Robotaxi's exclusive product Cybercab is on track this year; Laying the first generation production line of humanoid robot Optimus; The company has reached an agreement with xAI to invest approximately US $2 billion, which brings the market narrative back to \"AI + robots bring long-term optional premiums.\"Tesla also said that Robotaxi's exclusive products Cybercab, Semi truck, and the new version of the energy storage system Megapack 3 released in September last year will all start mass production in 2026 as planned, reconfirming the mass production time mentioned in the third quarter financial report plan.<h2 id=\"id_2133268308\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Q4 revenue turns from increase to decrease, energy business is the highlight</h2>Tesla fell about 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter to US $24.901 billion, basically within Wall Street's expected range of around US $25 billion or slightly lower than expected. In other words, there were no big surprises in revenue, neither significantly higher than expected nor far worse than expected.For the whole year of 2025, Tesla's revenue was US $94.827 billion, a decrease of 3% from the previous year, the first annual revenue decline in the company's history.Among the main businesses, automobile revenue in the fourth quarter was US $17.693 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, while an increase of 6% in the third quarter; Energy power generation and energy storage business revenue was US $3.837 billion, a year-on-year growth slowing down from 44% in the third quarter to 25%, and service and other business revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to US $3.371 billion. Energy and services offset part of the impact of the decline in vehicle revenue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d283a01953b5cb6f2494116e3130fce\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1438\"/>The decline in delivery is one of the direct triggers of this decline in revenue and automobile profit. Although Tesla said its delivery volume in the APAC region hit a record, the overall delivery volume fell 16% year-on-year to 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter. The market's previous concerns about delivery have accumulated, and investors are more concerned about whether the company can re-match production capacity with demand in 2026 (such as Cybercab, Semi mass production rhythm) to restore scale effects.In the fourth quarter, the deployed installed capacity of the energy storage business reached a record 14.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29%, and energy gross profit hit a record high in a single quarter. Tesla said it will continue to advance its plan to mass-produce Megapack3/Megablock in 2026.The energy business is no longer just a \"growth episode\", but a stable business line that can resist seasonal/policy fluctuations on the automotive side in the short term; As a result, the market's confidence in Tesla's ability to \"diversify growth\" has increased, which is also an important driving force for the after-hours stock price reaction.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ad218deb5d19ed1727de6cd359ea71\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1323\" tg-height=\"705\"/><h2 id=\"id_1660784080\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Q4 gross profit margin improves, operating expenses rise, swallows up some profits</h2>Tesla's total gross profit under GAAP in the fourth quarter increased by 20% year-on-year to US $5.009 billion, and its gross profit margin rose from 18% in the third quarter to 20.1%, a year-on-year increase of 386 basis points; The operating profit for the quarter fell 11% year-on-year to US $1.409 billion, a decline much lower than the 40% in the third quarter, and the operating profit margin was 5.7%. Tesla pointed out that research and development (R&D) and AI project investment, SBC (equity incentive) and other expenditures raised operating expenses.Tesla's earnings per share (EPS) under the GAAP caliber in the fourth quarter was US $0.24, and EPS under the non-GAAP caliber was US $0.5, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, which was moderate from the 31% decline in the third quarter.The mainstream expected fourth-quarter EPS is distributed in the range of US $0.3 to US $0.5, and the caliber of different institutions varies greatly. From this point of view, Tesla's GAAP caliber EPS is lower than some more optimistic estimates, but the non-GAAP caliber EPS is close to or exceeds the expectations of some institutions and higher than the $0.45 expected by the Bloomberg survey.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c63b8c73b03b586b218631572cb5f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1361\" tg-height=\"672\"/>The market focuses on whether the gross profit of automobiles can be maintained, and when AI/robot R&D investment will see leverage. At present, the gross profit of automobiles shows some improvement under the influence of sub-product, pricing and mix, but the high SBC and AI project expenditure has compressed the current GAAP profit. Most analysts' previous EPS estimates have taken these expenditures into account, and the deviation of actual EPS depends on the caliber of different institutions for non-GAAP projects.<h2 id=\"id_3598672790\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Continue to Bet on 'Physical AI': Robotaxi, FSD, Optimus Progress and Investment in xAI</h2>In terms of Robotaxi, Tesla revealed that it will begin testing the provision of Robotaxi services without safety supervisors in Austin in December 2025, and will begin providing limited vehicle services without safety supervisors in Austin in January 2026. The company also operates services with security officers in the Bay Area and has covered San Jose Airport. Subsequent expansion at other airports requires permission.The Robotaxi iOS application has \"no waitlist\" in the company's service area, and the company has listed that it plans to cover the service to multiple cities in the United States in the first half of 2026, including: Dallas and Houston in Texas, Phoenix in Arizona, Miami, Orlando and Tampa in Florida, Las Vegas, Nevada. The company's \"unsupervised Robotaxi put into commercial operations\" is also included in the delivery indicators of the CEO Performance Award.In terms of autonomous driving assistance system FSD, Tesla said that the FSD v14 version has brought more comprehensive functions such as assisted driving and \"finding parking spaces/automatic parking\", and said that the global fleet can collect the equivalent of more than 500 years of continuous driving every day. The amount of data (used for training). The company will also promote the Supervised version of FSD (Supervised) to South Korea in 2025 and provide \"ride experience\" in several European countries.FSD's subscription-based revenue will \"continue to grow quarter-on-quarter and double year-on-year\" in 2025. Starting from this quarter, the company will gradually withdraw the one-time paid purchase option and switch to monthly subscriptions. In the fourth quarter, FSD's active subscribers increased by 38% year-on-year to 1.1 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57210074f695001b0080e46095008d73\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1292\" tg-height=\"716\"/>In terms of robots, Tesla said that Optimus will continue to undergo major upgrades in 2025, including the latest hand design, and the third-generation Optimus Gen-3 is the first design \"for large-scale mass production\"; The company has begun to prepare the supply chain and production line for the first production line, with the goal of \"starting the mass production line before the end of 2026\", and the long-term production capacity target is to eventually reach 1 million units a year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8a17e0ab45ad7bca340627faad86429\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1216\" tg-height=\"704\"/>In terms of investment in the AI field, Tesla announced that it has reached a framework agreement with Musk's AI startup xAI, and agreed to subscribe for xAI's E-series preferred shares rights with approximately US $2 billion. Completed in the first quarter of the year.Tesla said that this investment belongs to the company's Master Plan Part IV framework, which aims to establish a foundation for cooperation in AI products and services in the physical world. Tesla is developing products and services that integrate AI into the real world. At the same time, xAI is developing leading digital AI products and services, such as its large language model Grok.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80814a019f1f5d3ea388f9f96b90ccf4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1306\" tg-height=\"681\"/>wind</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764408\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764408","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171505578","content_text":"Q4特斯拉营收同比由增转降3%、略低于预期、首次年度营收下滑，当季EPS盈利降17%仍强于预期，毛利率升破20%，储能部署增29%至新高14.2GWh；1月开始在奥斯汀限量提供无安全监督员的Robotaxi；Cybercab、Semi卡车、储能系统Megapack 3均按计划今年开始量产；Optimus第一代生产线正铺设，目标今年底开始量产；预计Q1完成20亿美元认购xAI股票。股价盘后一度涨超4%。高管称今年资本支出超200亿美元，股价曾回吐多数涨幅。【特斯拉2025年四季度业绩电话会议】特斯拉四季度营收由三季度的两位数同比大增转为下滑，电动车交付量连续第二年下滑，成为营收与汽车毛利承压的主要原因，但EPS盈利高于预期，能源与服务业务继续放量，披露投资xAI、无人驾驶出租车Robotaxi等“物理 AI”相关业务的进展。盘后公布财报后，股价盘后跳涨，盘后涨幅曾超过4%。盘后上涨更像是源于特斯拉短期的业绩并没有太差，长期的叙事——Robotaxi/Optimus/xAI方面继续给估值提供想象空间。业绩电话会上，特斯拉高管称2026年全年资本支出将超过200亿美元。此后股价曾回吐盘后多数涨幅。‘’虽然特斯拉四季度营收由三季度的两位数同比大增转为下滑，但储能部署装机量创纪录，应被市场视为短期内对冲汽车端下行的“硬支撑”。更重要的是，特斯拉强调“物理 AI”进展与对外投资。特斯拉披露，从本月开始，在得州奥斯汀的部分Robotaxi服务车辆上移除人类安全监督员，开始迈向真正的无人驾驶；Robotaxi专属的产品Cybercab的今年量产计划处于正轨；在铺设人形机器人Optimus的第一代生产线；公司已与xAI 达成投资约20亿美元的协议，这把市场叙事又拉回到“AI+机器人带来长期可选项溢价”。特斯拉还称，Robotaxi的专属产品Cybercab、Semi卡车、去年9月发布的新版储能系统Megapack 3均按计划将于2026年开始量产，再次确认了发布三季度财报时提到的量产时间计划。Q4营收由增转降 能源业务是亮点特斯拉四季度同比降约3%，至249.01亿美元，基本处于250亿美元左右的华尔街预期区间内或略低于预期。换言之，营收并未出现很大意外，既非显著高于预期，也非远逊预期。2025年全年，特斯拉营收948.27亿美元，较上年下降3%，为公司史上首次年度营收下滑。主要业务中，四季度汽车营收176.93亿美元，同比下降10%，而三季度增长6%；能源发电与储能业务收入38.37亿美元，同比增长由三季度的44%放缓至25%，服务与其他业务收入同比增长18%至33.71亿美元。能源与服务对冲了整车营收下行的部分影响。交付下滑是本次营收与汽车盈利下降的直接触发因素之一。虽然特斯拉称在APAC 地区的交付量创记录，但总体交付量四季度同比下降16%至41.8227万辆。市场此前对交付的担忧已有积累，投资者更关注公司是否能在 2026 年把产能与需求重新匹配（例如 Cybercab、Semi 量产节奏）以恢复规模化效应。四季度储能业务部署装机量达到创纪录的14.2GWh，同比增长29%，能源毛利单季度创历史新高。特斯拉称，继续推进 Megapack3 / Megablock于2026年量产的计划。能源业务不再只是“增长插曲”，而是能在短期对抗汽车端季节性/政策性波动的稳健业务线；市场因此对特斯拉“多元化增长”能力的信心增强，亦是盘后股价反应的一个重要推动力。Q4毛利率改善  营业费用抬升吞噬部分利润特斯拉四季度GAAP口径下总毛利同比增长20%至50.09亿美元，毛利率由三季度的18%升至20.1%，同比提高386个基点；当季营业利润同比下降11%至14.09亿美元，降幅远低于三季度的40%，营业利润率5.7%。特斯拉指出研发（R&D）与 AI 项目投入、SBC（股权激励）等支出抬升营业费用。特斯拉四季度GAAP口径下每股收益（EPS）为0.24美元，非GAAP口径下EPS为0.5美元，同比下降17%、较三季度的31%的降幅缓和。主流预期的四季度EPS分布在0.3到0.5美元区间，不同机构口径差异较大。以此看来，特斯拉公布的 GAAP口径EPS 低于某些较乐观的点估，但非GAAP口径EPS 接近或超过部分机构预期，高于彭博调查预期的0.45美元。市场把焦点放在汽车毛利能否维持，以及AI/机器人研发投入何时见到杠杆作用。目前汽车毛利在分产品、定价与 mix 的影响下显示部分改善，但高额的 SBC和 AI 项目支出压缩了当期 GAAP 利润。多数分析师此前对 EPS 的估计已经把这些支出考虑在内，实际 EPS 的偏差取决于不同机构对非 GAAP 项目的口径。继续押注“物理AI”：Robotaxi、FSD、Optimus进展及投资xAIRobotaxi方面，特斯拉透露，2025年12月在奥斯汀开始测试提供无安全监督员的Robotaxi服务，并于2026年1月开始在奥斯汀提供有限度的无安全监督员车辆服务。公司同时在湾区运营有带安全员的服务，并已覆盖圣何塞机场，后续在其他机场扩展需获许可。Robotaxi iOS 应用在公司服务区域“不再有候补名单”（no waitlist），且公司已列出，计划2026年上半年将服务覆盖到美国多个城市，包括：得州的达拉斯和休斯顿、亚利桑那州的凤凰城、佛罗里达州的迈阿密、奥兰多和Tampa、内华达州的拉斯维加斯。公司把“无监督 Robotaxi 放入商业运营”也计入了 CEO 绩效奖的交付指标口径。自动驾驶辅助系统FSD方面，特斯拉称，FSD v14 版已带来更全面的辅助驾驶与“找停车位/自动泊车”等功能，并表示全球车队能每天收集相当于超过500 年连续驾驶的数据量（用于训练）。公司还在 2025 年把 监督版FSD（Supervised）推广到韩国，并在欧洲数国提供“乘车体验”。FSD 的订阅制收入在2025 年“连续环比增长并且同比翻倍”，公司从本季开始逐步把一次性付费购置选项退场，转为月度订阅为主。四季度，FSD的活跃订阅用户同比增长38%至110万。机器人方面，特斯拉称，Optimus 在 2025 年继续重大升级，包括最新手部设计，第三代Optimus Gen-3 为首个“面向规模化量产”的设计；公司已开始为首条生产线做供应链与产线准备，目标“在2026年底前启动量产线”，长期产能目标为最终达到一年100万台。AI领域投资方面，特斯拉公布，与马斯克旗下AI初创公司xAI达成框架协议，并同意以约20亿美元的资金认购xAI的E系列优先股，交易需满足常规监管条件，预计在2026年一季度完成。特斯拉称，此投资属于公司的总体规划第四部分（Master Plan Part IV）框架，旨在为物理世界的AI 产品与服务建立合作基础。特斯拉正在开发将AI融入现实世界的产品和服务。同时，xAI正在开发领先的数字AI产品和服务，例如其大语言模型Grok。风","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1171505578","isCrawlerRequest":true}