桥水：美国物价只是温和上涨，“大通胀”不会重演

华尔街见闻2021-06-22

作者：于旭东近日，全球最大的对冲基金——桥水基金表示，1970 年代的大通胀不会重演。据英国《金融时报》，桥水基金联席首席投资官Bob Prince表示，在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨，虽然在短期内会出现一些通胀，但它是极其温和的。 Prince同时表示，私人部门信贷支出导致大通胀的可能性不大，但在当前环境下，政府不得不大力推行财政刺激措施来推动通胀，不过这是一种全球现象，而...

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jackchua
2021-06-23
jackchua
哇
PYee
2021-06-22
PYee
好的
sky老夫子
2021-06-22
sky老夫子
good

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Prince表示，在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨，虽然在短期内会出现一些通胀，但它是极其温和的。\nPrince同时表示，私人部门信贷支出导致大通胀的可能性不大，但在当前环境下，政府不得不大力推行财政刺激措施来推动通胀，不过这是一种全球现象，而...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":null,"article_id":"1174110953","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee6b1c1000963b20e214151e82a026e"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174110953","pubTimestamp":1624365882,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Bridge Water: US prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e828835b955bdcbc1ba3b37016f5d09","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：于旭东\n近日，全球最大的对冲基金——桥水基金表示，1970 年代的大通胀不会重演。\n据英国《金融时报》，桥水基金联席首席投资官Bob Prince表示，在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨，虽然在短期内会出现一些通胀，但它是极其温和的。\nPrince同时表示，私人部门信贷支出导致大通胀的可能性不大，但在当前环境下，政府不得不大力推行财政刺激措施来推动通胀，不过这是一种全球现象，而不仅仅是美国的现象。\n在Prince发出上述言论之际，华尔街正就经济复苏、天量财政和货币刺激措施以及供应链问题是否会导致商品和服务价格持续上涨进行激烈的辩论。\n而此前，美国CPI以5%的同比增速飙升，并创下13年来最大涨幅，引发了市场对通胀的担忧。\n尽管如此， 不仅是Prince认为通胀的上扬仅是暂时事件，本月接受美国银行调查的基金经理中有超过70%的人也预计通胀上升不会是永久性的。\n市场减少通胀押注\n不仅投资经理们认为通胀是暂时的，整个市场也在押注通胀的消弭。\n目前，10年期美国盈亏平衡通胀率的趋势显示，投资者已减少对较长期通胀的押注。\n\n上周，美联储表示，他们正在密切关注不断上升的通胀指标，并可能最快在2023年加息，这比他们之前的预期提前了一年。\n即便如此，金融市场对美联储措辞的转变做出了截然相反的反应，10年期盈亏平衡通胀率跌至3月初以来的最低水平，毕竟鲍威尔也从未提及真正的taper和加息时间表。鲍威尔八面玲珑的措辞也一直在表明，美联储依旧认为目前的通胀是昙花一现。\n很显然，市场更愿意相信这样的措辞。\n1970年代的大通胀是否将重来？\n当然，在目前的环境下，很多人愿意将目前的通胀预期和上世纪70年的大通胀来相比。\n在那个年代，由于过度宽松的货币政策和食品、能源价格的突飞猛进，美国CPI从1965年的不到2%飙升至70年代的10%以上，并造成名义利率高企，企业融资成本居高不下，并严重损害了经济，也形成了一个无法逆转的经济周期，导致美联储决策者一度无法控制经济。\nPrince表示，尽管他对通胀的担忧不大，但他仍然在寻找危险信号，包括持续劳动力工资增长，这些数据变化可能是恶性通胀“自我强化周期”的先导指标。Prince认为目前还没有越过那个临界点，但不能排除这样的可能性。\nPrince补充说，美联储的政策的转变不会消除“经济体系的惯性”，因为目前储蓄率仍然很高，并且可以在未来几个月为消费者的支出提供源源不断的弹药，即便央行taper，整个经济系统中仍有大量潜在的支出在积聚。\n尽管如此，Prince预计目前足足有49万亿美元的美国股票市场的零售交易额不会以之前的速度继续激增。此前由于疫情，美国股市成为越来越多人的蓄水池，值得一提的是，其中包含了很多来自美国财政部的失业纾困金。\n大多数理论认为，通胀来袭的主要原因是过度宽松的货币政策，即一种货币现象。而美联储决策者一直通过试图“投机取巧”的方法让经济过热以避免衰退，但却常常因为“厄运”和技术错误导致价格“不稳定”。\n普林斯顿经济学家、前美联储高级官员Alan Stuart Blinder认为，市场里有许多央行无法控制的因素，包括1970年代食品和能源价格的冲击，而尼克松时代对工资价格管制的终结也加剧了通胀之火。\n但对于通胀来说，以什么样的原因开始，就会以什么样的原因结束。\n70年代的那场大通胀，终结始于1979年10月6日，当时美联储史上最强“鹰派”主席保罗·沃尔克开始积极收紧货币政策，此举使市场利率在次年4月一路飙升至17.6%，到1982 年甚至达到了更高的水准。激进的政策引发了美国经济两次衰退并导致失业率飙升，但最终美国迎来了一个通胀更为温和的美好时代。\n很显然，鲍威尔没有这样的魄力，而美国的通胀将走向何方？一切都掌握在美联储手里。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":129777561,"gmtCreate":1624401641553,"gmtModify":1703835375299,"author":{"id":"3569654227417595","authorId":"3569654227417595","name":"jackchua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de06fbbe46e69b9364b5c8fd2f03f09","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569654227417595","authorIdStr":"3569654227417595"},"htmlText":"哇","listText":"哇","text":"哇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129777561","repostId":1174110953,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174110953","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624365882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174110953?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 20:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174110953","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨。","content":"<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>Recently, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, stated that the great inflation of the 1970s will not repeat itself.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Fund, said that in the long run, the forces of deflation will ultimately curb recent price increases. Although there will be some inflation in the short term, it is extremely moderate.</p><p>Prince also said that it is unlikely that private sector credit spending will lead to big inflation, but in the current environment, the government has to vigorously implement fiscal stimulus measures to promote inflation, but this is a global phenomenon, not just a phenomenon in the United States.</p><p>Prince's comments come amid a heated debate on Wall Street over whether the economic recovery, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and supply chain issues will lead to sustained price increases for goods and services.</p><p>Previously, the U.S. CPI soared at a year-on-year growth rate of 5%, the largest increase in 13 years, triggering market concerns about inflation.</p><p>Still, not only does Prince believe the rise in inflation is only a temporary event, but more than 70% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America this month also don't expect the rise to be permanent.</p><p>Markets reduce inflation bets</p><p>Not only do investment managers believe that inflation is temporary, but the entire market is also betting on its elimination.</p><p>Currently, the trend in the 10-year U.S. breakeven inflation rate shows that investors have reduced their bets on longer-term inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6113e28c1126c2cbf7a8fc8641b1b4c9\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last week, the Fed said they were keeping a close eye on rising inflation measures and could rate hike as soon as 2023, a year earlier than they had previously expected.</p><p>Even so, financial markets reacted diametrically oppositely to the Fed's shift in rhetoric, with 10-year breakeven inflation falling to its lowest level since early March, after all, Powell never mentioned a real taper and rate hike timeline. Powell's versatile rhetoric has also been indicating that the Fed still believes that current inflation is a flash in the pan.</p><p>Obviously, the market prefers to believe such wording.</p><p>Will the great inflation of the 1970s come back again?</p><p>Of course, in the current environment, many people are willing to compare current inflation expectations with the Great Inflation of 1970s.</p><p>At that time, due to the excessively loose monetary policy and the rapid increase of food and energy prices, the CPI of the United States soared from less than 2% in 1965 to more than 10% in the 1970s, resulting in high nominal interest rates and high corporate financing costs. It also seriously damaged the economy and formed an irreversible economic cycle, resulting in the Fed policymakers being unable to control the economy for a time.</p><p>Prince said that while his concerns about inflation are modest, he is still looking for red flags, including continued labor wage growth, and these data changes may be a leading indicator of a \"self-reinforcing cycle\" of hyperinflation. Prince believes that the tipping point has not been crossed yet, but can't rule out such a possibility.</p><p>Prince added that the shift in the Fed's policy will not eliminate \"the inertia of the economic system\" because the savings rate remains high and can provide a steady stream of ammunition for consumer spending in the coming months, even if the central bank tapers, the entire economy There is still a lot of potential spending accumulating in the system.</p><p>Nevertheless, Prince does not expect retail transactions in the US stock market, which currently has a full $49 trillion, to continue to surge at the previous rate. Previously, due to the epidemic, the U.S. stock market has become a reservoir for more and more people. It is worth mentioning that it contains a lot of unemployment relief funds from the U.S. Treasury Department.</p><p>Most theories suggest that the main reason inflation strikes is overly loose monetary policy, a monetary phenomenon. Fed policymakers have been trying to overheat the economy by \"opportunistic\" methods to avoid recession, but often because of \"bad luck\" and technical errors, prices are \"unstable\".</p><p>Princeton economist and former senior Federal Reserve official Alan Stuart Blinder believes that there are many factors in the market beyond the control of the central bank, including the impact of food and energy prices in the 1970s, and the end of wage and price controls in the Nixon era also exacerbated the inflation fire.</p><p>But for inflation, what causes it starts with will end with what causes it starts with.</p><p>The end of the great inflation in the 1970s began on October 6, 1979, when Paul Volcker, the strongest \"hawkish\" chairman in the history of the Federal Reserve, began to actively tighten monetary policy, which caused market interest rates to fall in April of the following year. It soared to 17.6%, and even reached higher levels by 1982. Aggressive policies triggered two recessions in the U.S. economy and caused unemployment to soar, but ultimately the U.S. ushered in a beautiful era of milder inflation.</p><p>Obviously, Powell does not have such courage, and where will inflation in the United States go? It's all in the hands of the Federal Reserve.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 20:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>Recently, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, stated that the great inflation of the 1970s will not repeat itself.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Fund, said that in the long run, the forces of deflation will ultimately curb recent price increases. Although there will be some inflation in the short term, it is extremely moderate.</p><p>Prince also said that it is unlikely that private sector credit spending will lead to big inflation, but in the current environment, the government has to vigorously implement fiscal stimulus measures to promote inflation, but this is a global phenomenon, not just a phenomenon in the United States.</p><p>Prince's comments come amid a heated debate on Wall Street over whether the economic recovery, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and supply chain issues will lead to sustained price increases for goods and services.</p><p>Previously, the U.S. CPI soared at a year-on-year growth rate of 5%, the largest increase in 13 years, triggering market concerns about inflation.</p><p>Still, not only does Prince believe the rise in inflation is only a temporary event, but more than 70% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America this month also don't expect the rise to be permanent.</p><p>Markets reduce inflation bets</p><p>Not only do investment managers believe that inflation is temporary, but the entire market is also betting on its elimination.</p><p>Currently, the trend in the 10-year U.S. breakeven inflation rate shows that investors have reduced their bets on longer-term inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6113e28c1126c2cbf7a8fc8641b1b4c9\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last week, the Fed said they were keeping a close eye on rising inflation measures and could rate hike as soon as 2023, a year earlier than they had previously expected.</p><p>Even so, financial markets reacted diametrically oppositely to the Fed's shift in rhetoric, with 10-year breakeven inflation falling to its lowest level since early March, after all, Powell never mentioned a real taper and rate hike timeline. Powell's versatile rhetoric has also been indicating that the Fed still believes that current inflation is a flash in the pan.</p><p>Obviously, the market prefers to believe such wording.</p><p>Will the great inflation of the 1970s come back again?</p><p>Of course, in the current environment, many people are willing to compare current inflation expectations with the Great Inflation of 1970s.</p><p>At that time, due to the excessively loose monetary policy and the rapid increase of food and energy prices, the CPI of the United States soared from less than 2% in 1965 to more than 10% in the 1970s, resulting in high nominal interest rates and high corporate financing costs. It also seriously damaged the economy and formed an irreversible economic cycle, resulting in the Fed policymakers being unable to control the economy for a time.</p><p>Prince said that while his concerns about inflation are modest, he is still looking for red flags, including continued labor wage growth, and these data changes may be a leading indicator of a \"self-reinforcing cycle\" of hyperinflation. Prince believes that the tipping point has not been crossed yet, but can't rule out such a possibility.</p><p>Prince added that the shift in the Fed's policy will not eliminate \"the inertia of the economic system\" because the savings rate remains high and can provide a steady stream of ammunition for consumer spending in the coming months, even if the central bank tapers, the entire economy There is still a lot of potential spending accumulating in the system.</p><p>Nevertheless, Prince does not expect retail transactions in the US stock market, which currently has a full $49 trillion, to continue to surge at the previous rate. Previously, due to the epidemic, the U.S. stock market has become a reservoir for more and more people. It is worth mentioning that it contains a lot of unemployment relief funds from the U.S. Treasury Department.</p><p>Most theories suggest that the main reason inflation strikes is overly loose monetary policy, a monetary phenomenon. Fed policymakers have been trying to overheat the economy by \"opportunistic\" methods to avoid recession, but often because of \"bad luck\" and technical errors, prices are \"unstable\".</p><p>Princeton economist and former senior Federal Reserve official Alan Stuart Blinder believes that there are many factors in the market beyond the control of the central bank, including the impact of food and energy prices in the 1970s, and the end of wage and price controls in the Nixon era also exacerbated the inflation fire.</p><p>But for inflation, what causes it starts with will end with what causes it starts with.</p><p>The end of the great inflation in the 1970s began on October 6, 1979, when Paul Volcker, the strongest \"hawkish\" chairman in the history of the Federal Reserve, began to actively tighten monetary policy, which caused market interest rates to fall in April of the following year. It soared to 17.6%, and even reached higher levels by 1982. Aggressive policies triggered two recessions in the U.S. economy and caused unemployment to soar, but ultimately the U.S. ushered in a beautiful era of milder inflation.</p><p>Obviously, Powell does not have such courage, and where will inflation in the United States go? It's all in the hands of the Federal Reserve.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee6b1c1000963b20e214151e82a026e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174110953","content_text":"作者：于旭东\n近日，全球最大的对冲基金——桥水基金表示，1970 年代的大通胀不会重演。\n据英国《金融时报》，桥水基金联席首席投资官Bob Prince表示，在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨，虽然在短期内会出现一些通胀，但它是极其温和的。\nPrince同时表示，私人部门信贷支出导致大通胀的可能性不大，但在当前环境下，政府不得不大力推行财政刺激措施来推动通胀，不过这是一种全球现象，而不仅仅是美国的现象。\n在Prince发出上述言论之际，华尔街正就经济复苏、天量财政和货币刺激措施以及供应链问题是否会导致商品和服务价格持续上涨进行激烈的辩论。\n而此前，美国CPI以5%的同比增速飙升，并创下13年来最大涨幅，引发了市场对通胀的担忧。\n尽管如此， 不仅是Prince认为通胀的上扬仅是暂时事件，本月接受美国银行调查的基金经理中有超过70%的人也预计通胀上升不会是永久性的。\n市场减少通胀押注\n不仅投资经理们认为通胀是暂时的，整个市场也在押注通胀的消弭。\n目前，10年期美国盈亏平衡通胀率的趋势显示，投资者已减少对较长期通胀的押注。\n\n上周，美联储表示，他们正在密切关注不断上升的通胀指标，并可能最快在2023年加息，这比他们之前的预期提前了一年。\n即便如此，金融市场对美联储措辞的转变做出了截然相反的反应，10年期盈亏平衡通胀率跌至3月初以来的最低水平，毕竟鲍威尔也从未提及真正的taper和加息时间表。鲍威尔八面玲珑的措辞也一直在表明，美联储依旧认为目前的通胀是昙花一现。\n很显然，市场更愿意相信这样的措辞。\n1970年代的大通胀是否将重来？\n当然，在目前的环境下，很多人愿意将目前的通胀预期和上世纪70年的大通胀来相比。\n在那个年代，由于过度宽松的货币政策和食品、能源价格的突飞猛进，美国CPI从1965年的不到2%飙升至70年代的10%以上，并造成名义利率高企，企业融资成本居高不下，并严重损害了经济，也形成了一个无法逆转的经济周期，导致美联储决策者一度无法控制经济。\nPrince表示，尽管他对通胀的担忧不大，但他仍然在寻找危险信号，包括持续劳动力工资增长，这些数据变化可能是恶性通胀“自我强化周期”的先导指标。Prince认为目前还没有越过那个临界点，但不能排除这样的可能性。\nPrince补充说，美联储的政策的转变不会消除“经济体系的惯性”，因为目前储蓄率仍然很高，并且可以在未来几个月为消费者的支出提供源源不断的弹药，即便央行taper，整个经济系统中仍有大量潜在的支出在积聚。\n尽管如此，Prince预计目前足足有49万亿美元的美国股票市场的零售交易额不会以之前的速度继续激增。此前由于疫情，美国股市成为越来越多人的蓄水池，值得一提的是，其中包含了很多来自美国财政部的失业纾困金。\n大多数理论认为，通胀来袭的主要原因是过度宽松的货币政策，即一种货币现象。而美联储决策者一直通过试图“投机取巧”的方法让经济过热以避免衰退，但却常常因为“厄运”和技术错误导致价格“不稳定”。\n普林斯顿经济学家、前美联储高级官员Alan Stuart Blinder认为，市场里有许多央行无法控制的因素，包括1970年代食品和能源价格的冲击，而尼克松时代对工资价格管制的终结也加剧了通胀之火。\n但对于通胀来说，以什么样的原因开始，就会以什么样的原因结束。\n70年代的那场大通胀，终结始于1979年10月6日，当时美联储史上最强“鹰派”主席保罗·沃尔克开始积极收紧货币政策，此举使市场利率在次年4月一路飙升至17.6%，到1982 年甚至达到了更高的水准。激进的政策引发了美国经济两次衰退并导致失业率飙升，但最终美国迎来了一个通胀更为温和的美好时代。\n很显然，鲍威尔没有这样的魄力，而美国的通胀将走向何方？一切都掌握在美联储手里。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":129670436,"gmtCreate":1624372292625,"gmtModify":1703834799588,"author":{"id":"3575072609147303","authorId":"3575072609147303","name":"PYee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575072609147303","authorIdStr":"3575072609147303"},"htmlText":"好的","listText":"好的","text":"好的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129670436","repostId":1174110953,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174110953","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624365882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174110953?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 20:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174110953","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨。","content":"<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>Recently, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, stated that the great inflation of the 1970s will not repeat itself.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Fund, said that in the long run, the forces of deflation will ultimately curb recent price increases. Although there will be some inflation in the short term, it is extremely moderate.</p><p>Prince also said that it is unlikely that private sector credit spending will lead to big inflation, but in the current environment, the government has to vigorously implement fiscal stimulus measures to promote inflation, but this is a global phenomenon, not just a phenomenon in the United States.</p><p>Prince's comments come amid a heated debate on Wall Street over whether the economic recovery, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and supply chain issues will lead to sustained price increases for goods and services.</p><p>Previously, the U.S. CPI soared at a year-on-year growth rate of 5%, the largest increase in 13 years, triggering market concerns about inflation.</p><p>Still, not only does Prince believe the rise in inflation is only a temporary event, but more than 70% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America this month also don't expect the rise to be permanent.</p><p>Markets reduce inflation bets</p><p>Not only do investment managers believe that inflation is temporary, but the entire market is also betting on its elimination.</p><p>Currently, the trend in the 10-year U.S. breakeven inflation rate shows that investors have reduced their bets on longer-term inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6113e28c1126c2cbf7a8fc8641b1b4c9\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last week, the Fed said they were keeping a close eye on rising inflation measures and could rate hike as soon as 2023, a year earlier than they had previously expected.</p><p>Even so, financial markets reacted diametrically oppositely to the Fed's shift in rhetoric, with 10-year breakeven inflation falling to its lowest level since early March, after all, Powell never mentioned a real taper and rate hike timeline. Powell's versatile rhetoric has also been indicating that the Fed still believes that current inflation is a flash in the pan.</p><p>Obviously, the market prefers to believe such wording.</p><p>Will the great inflation of the 1970s come back again?</p><p>Of course, in the current environment, many people are willing to compare current inflation expectations with the Great Inflation of 1970s.</p><p>At that time, due to the excessively loose monetary policy and the rapid increase of food and energy prices, the CPI of the United States soared from less than 2% in 1965 to more than 10% in the 1970s, resulting in high nominal interest rates and high corporate financing costs. It also seriously damaged the economy and formed an irreversible economic cycle, resulting in the Fed policymakers being unable to control the economy for a time.</p><p>Prince said that while his concerns about inflation are modest, he is still looking for red flags, including continued labor wage growth, and these data changes may be a leading indicator of a \"self-reinforcing cycle\" of hyperinflation. Prince believes that the tipping point has not been crossed yet, but can't rule out such a possibility.</p><p>Prince added that the shift in the Fed's policy will not eliminate \"the inertia of the economic system\" because the savings rate remains high and can provide a steady stream of ammunition for consumer spending in the coming months, even if the central bank tapers, the entire economy There is still a lot of potential spending accumulating in the system.</p><p>Nevertheless, Prince does not expect retail transactions in the US stock market, which currently has a full $49 trillion, to continue to surge at the previous rate. Previously, due to the epidemic, the U.S. stock market has become a reservoir for more and more people. It is worth mentioning that it contains a lot of unemployment relief funds from the U.S. Treasury Department.</p><p>Most theories suggest that the main reason inflation strikes is overly loose monetary policy, a monetary phenomenon. Fed policymakers have been trying to overheat the economy by \"opportunistic\" methods to avoid recession, but often because of \"bad luck\" and technical errors, prices are \"unstable\".</p><p>Princeton economist and former senior Federal Reserve official Alan Stuart Blinder believes that there are many factors in the market beyond the control of the central bank, including the impact of food and energy prices in the 1970s, and the end of wage and price controls in the Nixon era also exacerbated the inflation fire.</p><p>But for inflation, what causes it starts with will end with what causes it starts with.</p><p>The end of the great inflation in the 1970s began on October 6, 1979, when Paul Volcker, the strongest \"hawkish\" chairman in the history of the Federal Reserve, began to actively tighten monetary policy, which caused market interest rates to fall in April of the following year. It soared to 17.6%, and even reached higher levels by 1982. Aggressive policies triggered two recessions in the U.S. economy and caused unemployment to soar, but ultimately the U.S. ushered in a beautiful era of milder inflation.</p><p>Obviously, Powell does not have such courage, and where will inflation in the United States go? It's all in the hands of the Federal Reserve.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 20:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>Recently, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, stated that the great inflation of the 1970s will not repeat itself.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Fund, said that in the long run, the forces of deflation will ultimately curb recent price increases. Although there will be some inflation in the short term, it is extremely moderate.</p><p>Prince also said that it is unlikely that private sector credit spending will lead to big inflation, but in the current environment, the government has to vigorously implement fiscal stimulus measures to promote inflation, but this is a global phenomenon, not just a phenomenon in the United States.</p><p>Prince's comments come amid a heated debate on Wall Street over whether the economic recovery, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and supply chain issues will lead to sustained price increases for goods and services.</p><p>Previously, the U.S. CPI soared at a year-on-year growth rate of 5%, the largest increase in 13 years, triggering market concerns about inflation.</p><p>Still, not only does Prince believe the rise in inflation is only a temporary event, but more than 70% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America this month also don't expect the rise to be permanent.</p><p>Markets reduce inflation bets</p><p>Not only do investment managers believe that inflation is temporary, but the entire market is also betting on its elimination.</p><p>Currently, the trend in the 10-year U.S. breakeven inflation rate shows that investors have reduced their bets on longer-term inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6113e28c1126c2cbf7a8fc8641b1b4c9\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last week, the Fed said they were keeping a close eye on rising inflation measures and could rate hike as soon as 2023, a year earlier than they had previously expected.</p><p>Even so, financial markets reacted diametrically oppositely to the Fed's shift in rhetoric, with 10-year breakeven inflation falling to its lowest level since early March, after all, Powell never mentioned a real taper and rate hike timeline. Powell's versatile rhetoric has also been indicating that the Fed still believes that current inflation is a flash in the pan.</p><p>Obviously, the market prefers to believe such wording.</p><p>Will the great inflation of the 1970s come back again?</p><p>Of course, in the current environment, many people are willing to compare current inflation expectations with the Great Inflation of 1970s.</p><p>At that time, due to the excessively loose monetary policy and the rapid increase of food and energy prices, the CPI of the United States soared from less than 2% in 1965 to more than 10% in the 1970s, resulting in high nominal interest rates and high corporate financing costs. It also seriously damaged the economy and formed an irreversible economic cycle, resulting in the Fed policymakers being unable to control the economy for a time.</p><p>Prince said that while his concerns about inflation are modest, he is still looking for red flags, including continued labor wage growth, and these data changes may be a leading indicator of a \"self-reinforcing cycle\" of hyperinflation. Prince believes that the tipping point has not been crossed yet, but can't rule out such a possibility.</p><p>Prince added that the shift in the Fed's policy will not eliminate \"the inertia of the economic system\" because the savings rate remains high and can provide a steady stream of ammunition for consumer spending in the coming months, even if the central bank tapers, the entire economy There is still a lot of potential spending accumulating in the system.</p><p>Nevertheless, Prince does not expect retail transactions in the US stock market, which currently has a full $49 trillion, to continue to surge at the previous rate. Previously, due to the epidemic, the U.S. stock market has become a reservoir for more and more people. It is worth mentioning that it contains a lot of unemployment relief funds from the U.S. Treasury Department.</p><p>Most theories suggest that the main reason inflation strikes is overly loose monetary policy, a monetary phenomenon. Fed policymakers have been trying to overheat the economy by \"opportunistic\" methods to avoid recession, but often because of \"bad luck\" and technical errors, prices are \"unstable\".</p><p>Princeton economist and former senior Federal Reserve official Alan Stuart Blinder believes that there are many factors in the market beyond the control of the central bank, including the impact of food and energy prices in the 1970s, and the end of wage and price controls in the Nixon era also exacerbated the inflation fire.</p><p>But for inflation, what causes it starts with will end with what causes it starts with.</p><p>The end of the great inflation in the 1970s began on October 6, 1979, when Paul Volcker, the strongest \"hawkish\" chairman in the history of the Federal Reserve, began to actively tighten monetary policy, which caused market interest rates to fall in April of the following year. It soared to 17.6%, and even reached higher levels by 1982. Aggressive policies triggered two recessions in the U.S. economy and caused unemployment to soar, but ultimately the U.S. ushered in a beautiful era of milder inflation.</p><p>Obviously, Powell does not have such courage, and where will inflation in the United States go? It's all in the hands of the Federal Reserve.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee6b1c1000963b20e214151e82a026e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174110953","content_text":"作者：于旭东\n近日，全球最大的对冲基金——桥水基金表示，1970 年代的大通胀不会重演。\n据英国《金融时报》，桥水基金联席首席投资官Bob Prince表示，在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨，虽然在短期内会出现一些通胀，但它是极其温和的。\nPrince同时表示，私人部门信贷支出导致大通胀的可能性不大，但在当前环境下，政府不得不大力推行财政刺激措施来推动通胀，不过这是一种全球现象，而不仅仅是美国的现象。\n在Prince发出上述言论之际，华尔街正就经济复苏、天量财政和货币刺激措施以及供应链问题是否会导致商品和服务价格持续上涨进行激烈的辩论。\n而此前，美国CPI以5%的同比增速飙升，并创下13年来最大涨幅，引发了市场对通胀的担忧。\n尽管如此， 不仅是Prince认为通胀的上扬仅是暂时事件，本月接受美国银行调查的基金经理中有超过70%的人也预计通胀上升不会是永久性的。\n市场减少通胀押注\n不仅投资经理们认为通胀是暂时的，整个市场也在押注通胀的消弭。\n目前，10年期美国盈亏平衡通胀率的趋势显示，投资者已减少对较长期通胀的押注。\n\n上周，美联储表示，他们正在密切关注不断上升的通胀指标，并可能最快在2023年加息，这比他们之前的预期提前了一年。\n即便如此，金融市场对美联储措辞的转变做出了截然相反的反应，10年期盈亏平衡通胀率跌至3月初以来的最低水平，毕竟鲍威尔也从未提及真正的taper和加息时间表。鲍威尔八面玲珑的措辞也一直在表明，美联储依旧认为目前的通胀是昙花一现。\n很显然，市场更愿意相信这样的措辞。\n1970年代的大通胀是否将重来？\n当然，在目前的环境下，很多人愿意将目前的通胀预期和上世纪70年的大通胀来相比。\n在那个年代，由于过度宽松的货币政策和食品、能源价格的突飞猛进，美国CPI从1965年的不到2%飙升至70年代的10%以上，并造成名义利率高企，企业融资成本居高不下，并严重损害了经济，也形成了一个无法逆转的经济周期，导致美联储决策者一度无法控制经济。\nPrince表示，尽管他对通胀的担忧不大，但他仍然在寻找危险信号，包括持续劳动力工资增长，这些数据变化可能是恶性通胀“自我强化周期”的先导指标。Prince认为目前还没有越过那个临界点，但不能排除这样的可能性。\nPrince补充说，美联储的政策的转变不会消除“经济体系的惯性”，因为目前储蓄率仍然很高，并且可以在未来几个月为消费者的支出提供源源不断的弹药，即便央行taper，整个经济系统中仍有大量潜在的支出在积聚。\n尽管如此，Prince预计目前足足有49万亿美元的美国股票市场的零售交易额不会以之前的速度继续激增。此前由于疫情，美国股市成为越来越多人的蓄水池，值得一提的是，其中包含了很多来自美国财政部的失业纾困金。\n大多数理论认为，通胀来袭的主要原因是过度宽松的货币政策，即一种货币现象。而美联储决策者一直通过试图“投机取巧”的方法让经济过热以避免衰退，但却常常因为“厄运”和技术错误导致价格“不稳定”。\n普林斯顿经济学家、前美联储高级官员Alan Stuart Blinder认为，市场里有许多央行无法控制的因素，包括1970年代食品和能源价格的冲击，而尼克松时代对工资价格管制的终结也加剧了通胀之火。\n但对于通胀来说，以什么样的原因开始，就会以什么样的原因结束。\n70年代的那场大通胀，终结始于1979年10月6日，当时美联储史上最强“鹰派”主席保罗·沃尔克开始积极收紧货币政策，此举使市场利率在次年4月一路飙升至17.6%，到1982 年甚至达到了更高的水准。激进的政策引发了美国经济两次衰退并导致失业率飙升，但最终美国迎来了一个通胀更为温和的美好时代。\n很显然，鲍威尔没有这样的魄力，而美国的通胀将走向何方？一切都掌握在美联储手里。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":129833561,"gmtCreate":1624368559753,"gmtModify":1703834559822,"author":{"id":"3585711731655298","authorId":"3585711731655298","name":"sky老夫子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6bc4b535fe31e2cb1d2b45246766d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3585711731655298","authorIdStr":"3585711731655298"},"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129833561","repostId":1174110953,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174110953","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624365882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174110953?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 20:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174110953","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨。","content":"<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>Recently, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, stated that the great inflation of the 1970s will not repeat itself.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Fund, said that in the long run, the forces of deflation will ultimately curb recent price increases. Although there will be some inflation in the short term, it is extremely moderate.</p><p>Prince also said that it is unlikely that private sector credit spending will lead to big inflation, but in the current environment, the government has to vigorously implement fiscal stimulus measures to promote inflation, but this is a global phenomenon, not just a phenomenon in the United States.</p><p>Prince's comments come amid a heated debate on Wall Street over whether the economic recovery, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and supply chain issues will lead to sustained price increases for goods and services.</p><p>Previously, the U.S. CPI soared at a year-on-year growth rate of 5%, the largest increase in 13 years, triggering market concerns about inflation.</p><p>Still, not only does Prince believe the rise in inflation is only a temporary event, but more than 70% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America this month also don't expect the rise to be permanent.</p><p>Markets reduce inflation bets</p><p>Not only do investment managers believe that inflation is temporary, but the entire market is also betting on its elimination.</p><p>Currently, the trend in the 10-year U.S. breakeven inflation rate shows that investors have reduced their bets on longer-term inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6113e28c1126c2cbf7a8fc8641b1b4c9\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last week, the Fed said they were keeping a close eye on rising inflation measures and could rate hike as soon as 2023, a year earlier than they had previously expected.</p><p>Even so, financial markets reacted diametrically oppositely to the Fed's shift in rhetoric, with 10-year breakeven inflation falling to its lowest level since early March, after all, Powell never mentioned a real taper and rate hike timeline. Powell's versatile rhetoric has also been indicating that the Fed still believes that current inflation is a flash in the pan.</p><p>Obviously, the market prefers to believe such wording.</p><p>Will the great inflation of the 1970s come back again?</p><p>Of course, in the current environment, many people are willing to compare current inflation expectations with the Great Inflation of 1970s.</p><p>At that time, due to the excessively loose monetary policy and the rapid increase of food and energy prices, the CPI of the United States soared from less than 2% in 1965 to more than 10% in the 1970s, resulting in high nominal interest rates and high corporate financing costs. It also seriously damaged the economy and formed an irreversible economic cycle, resulting in the Fed policymakers being unable to control the economy for a time.</p><p>Prince said that while his concerns about inflation are modest, he is still looking for red flags, including continued labor wage growth, and these data changes may be a leading indicator of a \"self-reinforcing cycle\" of hyperinflation. Prince believes that the tipping point has not been crossed yet, but can't rule out such a possibility.</p><p>Prince added that the shift in the Fed's policy will not eliminate \"the inertia of the economic system\" because the savings rate remains high and can provide a steady stream of ammunition for consumer spending in the coming months, even if the central bank tapers, the entire economy There is still a lot of potential spending accumulating in the system.</p><p>Nevertheless, Prince does not expect retail transactions in the US stock market, which currently has a full $49 trillion, to continue to surge at the previous rate. Previously, due to the epidemic, the U.S. stock market has become a reservoir for more and more people. It is worth mentioning that it contains a lot of unemployment relief funds from the U.S. Treasury Department.</p><p>Most theories suggest that the main reason inflation strikes is overly loose monetary policy, a monetary phenomenon. Fed policymakers have been trying to overheat the economy by \"opportunistic\" methods to avoid recession, but often because of \"bad luck\" and technical errors, prices are \"unstable\".</p><p>Princeton economist and former senior Federal Reserve official Alan Stuart Blinder believes that there are many factors in the market beyond the control of the central bank, including the impact of food and energy prices in the 1970s, and the end of wage and price controls in the Nixon era also exacerbated the inflation fire.</p><p>But for inflation, what causes it starts with will end with what causes it starts with.</p><p>The end of the great inflation in the 1970s began on October 6, 1979, when Paul Volcker, the strongest \"hawkish\" chairman in the history of the Federal Reserve, began to actively tighten monetary policy, which caused market interest rates to fall in April of the following year. It soared to 17.6%, and even reached higher levels by 1982. Aggressive policies triggered two recessions in the U.S. economy and caused unemployment to soar, but ultimately the U.S. ushered in a beautiful era of milder inflation.</p><p>Obviously, Powell does not have such courage, and where will inflation in the United States go? It's all in the hands of the Federal Reserve.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBridgewater: U.S. prices are only rising moderately, and \"big inflation\" will not repeat itself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 20:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>Recently, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, stated that the great inflation of the 1970s will not repeat itself.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Fund, said that in the long run, the forces of deflation will ultimately curb recent price increases. Although there will be some inflation in the short term, it is extremely moderate.</p><p>Prince also said that it is unlikely that private sector credit spending will lead to big inflation, but in the current environment, the government has to vigorously implement fiscal stimulus measures to promote inflation, but this is a global phenomenon, not just a phenomenon in the United States.</p><p>Prince's comments come amid a heated debate on Wall Street over whether the economic recovery, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and supply chain issues will lead to sustained price increases for goods and services.</p><p>Previously, the U.S. CPI soared at a year-on-year growth rate of 5%, the largest increase in 13 years, triggering market concerns about inflation.</p><p>Still, not only does Prince believe the rise in inflation is only a temporary event, but more than 70% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America this month also don't expect the rise to be permanent.</p><p>Markets reduce inflation bets</p><p>Not only do investment managers believe that inflation is temporary, but the entire market is also betting on its elimination.</p><p>Currently, the trend in the 10-year U.S. breakeven inflation rate shows that investors have reduced their bets on longer-term inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6113e28c1126c2cbf7a8fc8641b1b4c9\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last week, the Fed said they were keeping a close eye on rising inflation measures and could rate hike as soon as 2023, a year earlier than they had previously expected.</p><p>Even so, financial markets reacted diametrically oppositely to the Fed's shift in rhetoric, with 10-year breakeven inflation falling to its lowest level since early March, after all, Powell never mentioned a real taper and rate hike timeline. Powell's versatile rhetoric has also been indicating that the Fed still believes that current inflation is a flash in the pan.</p><p>Obviously, the market prefers to believe such wording.</p><p>Will the great inflation of the 1970s come back again?</p><p>Of course, in the current environment, many people are willing to compare current inflation expectations with the Great Inflation of 1970s.</p><p>At that time, due to the excessively loose monetary policy and the rapid increase of food and energy prices, the CPI of the United States soared from less than 2% in 1965 to more than 10% in the 1970s, resulting in high nominal interest rates and high corporate financing costs. It also seriously damaged the economy and formed an irreversible economic cycle, resulting in the Fed policymakers being unable to control the economy for a time.</p><p>Prince said that while his concerns about inflation are modest, he is still looking for red flags, including continued labor wage growth, and these data changes may be a leading indicator of a \"self-reinforcing cycle\" of hyperinflation. Prince believes that the tipping point has not been crossed yet, but can't rule out such a possibility.</p><p>Prince added that the shift in the Fed's policy will not eliminate \"the inertia of the economic system\" because the savings rate remains high and can provide a steady stream of ammunition for consumer spending in the coming months, even if the central bank tapers, the entire economy There is still a lot of potential spending accumulating in the system.</p><p>Nevertheless, Prince does not expect retail transactions in the US stock market, which currently has a full $49 trillion, to continue to surge at the previous rate. Previously, due to the epidemic, the U.S. stock market has become a reservoir for more and more people. It is worth mentioning that it contains a lot of unemployment relief funds from the U.S. Treasury Department.</p><p>Most theories suggest that the main reason inflation strikes is overly loose monetary policy, a monetary phenomenon. Fed policymakers have been trying to overheat the economy by \"opportunistic\" methods to avoid recession, but often because of \"bad luck\" and technical errors, prices are \"unstable\".</p><p>Princeton economist and former senior Federal Reserve official Alan Stuart Blinder believes that there are many factors in the market beyond the control of the central bank, including the impact of food and energy prices in the 1970s, and the end of wage and price controls in the Nixon era also exacerbated the inflation fire.</p><p>But for inflation, what causes it starts with will end with what causes it starts with.</p><p>The end of the great inflation in the 1970s began on October 6, 1979, when Paul Volcker, the strongest \"hawkish\" chairman in the history of the Federal Reserve, began to actively tighten monetary policy, which caused market interest rates to fall in April of the following year. It soared to 17.6%, and even reached higher levels by 1982. Aggressive policies triggered two recessions in the U.S. economy and caused unemployment to soar, but ultimately the U.S. ushered in a beautiful era of milder inflation.</p><p>Obviously, Powell does not have such courage, and where will inflation in the United States go? It's all in the hands of the Federal Reserve.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee6b1c1000963b20e214151e82a026e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174110953","content_text":"作者：于旭东\n近日，全球最大的对冲基金——桥水基金表示，1970 年代的大通胀不会重演。\n据英国《金融时报》，桥水基金联席首席投资官Bob Prince表示，在长期，通货紧缩的力量最终会抑制近期的价格上涨，虽然在短期内会出现一些通胀，但它是极其温和的。\nPrince同时表示，私人部门信贷支出导致大通胀的可能性不大，但在当前环境下，政府不得不大力推行财政刺激措施来推动通胀，不过这是一种全球现象，而不仅仅是美国的现象。\n在Prince发出上述言论之际，华尔街正就经济复苏、天量财政和货币刺激措施以及供应链问题是否会导致商品和服务价格持续上涨进行激烈的辩论。\n而此前，美国CPI以5%的同比增速飙升，并创下13年来最大涨幅，引发了市场对通胀的担忧。\n尽管如此， 不仅是Prince认为通胀的上扬仅是暂时事件，本月接受美国银行调查的基金经理中有超过70%的人也预计通胀上升不会是永久性的。\n市场减少通胀押注\n不仅投资经理们认为通胀是暂时的，整个市场也在押注通胀的消弭。\n目前，10年期美国盈亏平衡通胀率的趋势显示，投资者已减少对较长期通胀的押注。\n\n上周，美联储表示，他们正在密切关注不断上升的通胀指标，并可能最快在2023年加息，这比他们之前的预期提前了一年。\n即便如此，金融市场对美联储措辞的转变做出了截然相反的反应，10年期盈亏平衡通胀率跌至3月初以来的最低水平，毕竟鲍威尔也从未提及真正的taper和加息时间表。鲍威尔八面玲珑的措辞也一直在表明，美联储依旧认为目前的通胀是昙花一现。\n很显然，市场更愿意相信这样的措辞。\n1970年代的大通胀是否将重来？\n当然，在目前的环境下，很多人愿意将目前的通胀预期和上世纪70年的大通胀来相比。\n在那个年代，由于过度宽松的货币政策和食品、能源价格的突飞猛进，美国CPI从1965年的不到2%飙升至70年代的10%以上，并造成名义利率高企，企业融资成本居高不下，并严重损害了经济，也形成了一个无法逆转的经济周期，导致美联储决策者一度无法控制经济。\nPrince表示，尽管他对通胀的担忧不大，但他仍然在寻找危险信号，包括持续劳动力工资增长，这些数据变化可能是恶性通胀“自我强化周期”的先导指标。Prince认为目前还没有越过那个临界点，但不能排除这样的可能性。\nPrince补充说，美联储的政策的转变不会消除“经济体系的惯性”，因为目前储蓄率仍然很高，并且可以在未来几个月为消费者的支出提供源源不断的弹药，即便央行taper，整个经济系统中仍有大量潜在的支出在积聚。\n尽管如此，Prince预计目前足足有49万亿美元的美国股票市场的零售交易额不会以之前的速度继续激增。此前由于疫情，美国股市成为越来越多人的蓄水池，值得一提的是，其中包含了很多来自美国财政部的失业纾困金。\n大多数理论认为，通胀来袭的主要原因是过度宽松的货币政策，即一种货币现象。而美联储决策者一直通过试图“投机取巧”的方法让经济过热以避免衰退，但却常常因为“厄运”和技术错误导致价格“不稳定”。\n普林斯顿经济学家、前美联储高级官员Alan Stuart Blinder认为，市场里有许多央行无法控制的因素，包括1970年代食品和能源价格的冲击，而尼克松时代对工资价格管制的终结也加剧了通胀之火。\n但对于通胀来说，以什么样的原因开始，就会以什么样的原因结束。\n70年代的那场大通胀，终结始于1979年10月6日，当时美联储史上最强“鹰派”主席保罗·沃尔克开始积极收紧货币政策，此举使市场利率在次年4月一路飙升至17.6%，到1982 年甚至达到了更高的水准。激进的政策引发了美国经济两次衰退并导致失业率飙升，但最终美国迎来了一个通胀更为温和的美好时代。\n很显然，鲍威尔没有这样的魄力，而美国的通胀将走向何方？一切都掌握在美联储手里。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":26,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1174110953","isCrawlerRequest":true}