美联储“鹰鸽难定”，美股开年大反弹只是“昙花一现”？

华尔街见闻2023-02-15

尽管美股反弹迅猛，但已有多家投行发出了警告，认为反弹不可持续。随着通胀见顶、美联储转向预期升温，美股在2023年初迎来大逆转。但涨势能否维持全年，依然面临诸多考验。截至1月收官，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨11%，为2001年1月以来最佳开局，标普500和道琼斯指数当月分别上涨6.2%和2.8%。去年，在美联储大刀阔斧的加息下，美股经历了2008年金融危机以来最为糟糕的一年；债市也一溃千里，...

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嘞撸虎7
2023-02-15
嘞撸虎7
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yuliang559
2023-02-15
yuliang559
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- yuliang559:
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hangyuliang
2023-02-15
hangyuliang
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- hangyuliang:
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Kostin策略师团队表示，美股过去一个月的强劲反弹可能已是强弩之末，年内再无上行空间。他们认为，今年迄今累计涨逾7%的标普500已经准确释放出了经济增长好于预期的信号，美债收益率下降也是如此。被誉为“华尔街最准分析师”的美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett也发出了警告，他认为今年年初美股的涨势已接近尾声，衰退正慢慢逼近，投资者应开始警惕美股将被大量抛售的风险。在最新的一份报告中，Hartnett警告称，美股涨势已经过头，认为标普500将在2月中旬触及高点，如果下半年美国经济增长乏力，投资者将会经历惨烈的下跌。债市相对乐观相比之下，分析师们对债市的看法还算乐观，原因在于即便美联储继续加息，也不太可能像2022年那样激进，这对债券的影响将更加温和。美联储去年七次上调基准利率，将利率上调至 4.25% 至 4.5%，这是自 1980 年代初以来最激进的政策举措。根据芝商所美联储观察工具FedWatch的预测来看，3月加息25个基点的概率接近88%。图：3月23日美联储会议的利率预测概率(截至2023年2月14日)分析师认为，随着加息节奏放缓甚至停止，债市回报不一定会转正，但相对于股票，债券可能会重新成为投资组合稳定器和多元化工具。高盛预测，2023年债券收益率将超过股票股息，并且认为一旦发生衰退债市更是一个安全港。因此，投资者亦可考虑运用芝商所旗下的微型E-迷你股指期货合约来对冲美股潜在的回落风险。这是小规模合约，让交易者更容易进入期货市场。小规模合约具备与标准期货合约相同的资本效益、灵活性和多样化潜力，交易者只需支付一小部分的保证金，即可在流动性最强的市场进行交易。芝商所的微型E-迷你股指系列合约为交易者交易股指期货提供了更多便利。2022年第四季度，所有四种微型E-mini期货的日均成交量均达到300万份合约（看下图）。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9954565150,"gmtCreate":1676471854971,"gmtModify":1676471858827,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954565150","repostId":1177778264,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9954530199,"gmtCreate":1676447001811,"gmtModify":1676447005369,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954530199","repostId":1177778264,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105802443,"gmtCreate":1676447007803,"gmtModify":1676447010996,"authorId":3581663680495191,"author":{"id":3581663680495191,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorId":3581663680495191,"name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9954530199,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9954597416,"gmtCreate":1676446590836,"gmtModify":1676446594275,"author":{"id":"3581648325885484","authorId":"3581648325885484","name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581648325885484","authorIdStr":"3581648325885484"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954597416","repostId":1177778264,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105802430,"gmtCreate":1676446597626,"gmtModify":1676446620688,"authorId":3581648325885484,"author":{"id":3581648325885484,"idStr":"3581648325885484","authorId":3581648325885484,"name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9954597416,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":35,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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