Facing the unstoppable tide of AI, Elon Musk has laid out an aggressive timeline and a pragmatic regulatory approach: AI is expected to surpass human intelligence within five years, and top industry companies should immediately establish a "mutual review" mechanism for models to safeguard against safety risks.
Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk sat down for an exclusive interview with Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief of The Economist. In this conversation, Musk not only offered his latest assessment of when AI will surpass human intelligence and the potential risks involved, but also detailed for the first time his vision for regulating leading AI large-model developers. He also candidly discussed the personal rivalries among key figures in Silicon Valley's AI giants.
AI to Surpass Human Intelligence in 5 Years, 10% to 20% Chance of Ending Humanity, Musk 'Has to Board the Ship'
The market is closely watching the timeline for AGI's arrival. On this, Musk offered an extremely clear and aggressive forecast: "In about five years, the intelligence level of AI could surpass that of humans."
Accompanying this intelligence explosion is the loss of control. When asked if humans will still be in control in 10 years, Musk bluntly said it's "unlikely." He used a harsh but vivid biological analogy to explain the logic: "If the intelligence gap between AI and humans is far greater than the gap between humans and chimpanzees, it's hard to imagine that chimpanzees would be dominant. We are essentially just an evolved version of chimpanzees; not long ago, we were eating bananas in the jungle."
Musk has previously warned multiple times that AI could lead to human extinction. In this interview, when asked if the probability of AI ending humanity is still between 10% and 20%, Musk did not deny the risk but chose a fatalistic optimism.
He used a rocket launch analogy to create a vivid image. When the host asked, "If your rocket had a 10% to 20% chance of exploding and killing you, would you still get on it?" Musk replied affirmatively: "Yes. The only thing we can do is try to minimize the probability of a bad outcome."
He further explained the reality of why he had to "board the ship": "The development of AI and robotics seems unstoppable. Even if I wanted to stop it, I couldn't." He believes that since it can't be stopped, the best option is to be in the thick of it to influence the outcome, "and the most likely result is that it brings enormous benefits to everyone." Excluding extreme factors like global thermonuclear war, Musk predicts that by around 2036, humanity is most likely to enter an "era of material abundance, where everyone can have everything they want."
Calls for AI 'Mutual Review Mechanism': Leveraging Commercial Competition to Ensure Honesty
As AI giants like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic intensify their arms race in foundational large models, how to effectively regulate has become a market focus. In this interview, Musk proposed a very practical plan: let competitors review each other's models.
Musk revealed that he has had long discussions with DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis. He believes the most urgent thing is to "have those leading AI companies at least hold regular meetings or exchanges to discuss any safety-related issues, perhaps weekly or bi-weekly."
Musk pointed out that government officials lack deep technical backgrounds and struggle to judge whether a frontier model should be released. Therefore, the commercial competition between giants should be leveraged to ensure safety: "For competitors, just give them a week or two to review a new model, and they can find problems in it, thereby incentivizing all competitors to stay honest."
The core logic of this mechanism is that "highly competitive companies can recognize that something might be a safety risk, so they won't hesitate to point out that the release of a competitor's model should be delayed." If a company refuses to address the risk, the government would then need to step in. Musk stressed that this mechanism must be established immediately, and that the industry saying "within six months" is far too long, as breakthroughs in AI are happening multiple times a day.
Criticizes OpenAI for Betraying Its Original Mission, but Willing to Set Aside Personal Differences for the World's Sake
When discussing the barriers to cooperation in the AI industry, Musk did not hide his dissatisfaction with Sam Altman, the current CEO of OpenAI. This blunt statement revealed the root of the lack of trust among top AI labs.
"I don't like Sam Altman because OpenAI was originally intended to be an open-source AI company, a company that was supposed to belong to the world. But somehow, it turned into a closed-source, for-profit company worth $800 billion," Musk said. He stated that this completely violated the original intent of his donations.
Musk also revealed inside information about Anthropic (one of the highest-valued AI startups, founded by former core OpenAI members): "Dario (Anthropic CEO) doesn't like Sam Altman either. In fact, the Anthropic team left OpenAI because they didn't trust Sam Altman; otherwise, they would still be working at OpenAI."
Despite the strong personal animosity among the giants, Musk showed a conciliatory attitude at the end of the interview. He described the Anthropic team as "people with principles who care about the future of the world." To advance the establishment of an AI safety mutual review mechanism, Musk called for: "For the good of the world, let's put our personal differences aside."
Comments