According to an article by Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, against the backdrop of a pressured overall auto market in October 2026 and a year-on-year decline in retail sales, the strong performance of exports became a key variable supporting automakers' sales volumes.
The export structure clearly shows a characteristic of "mid-to-low-priced mainstream models," which directly contributed to mainstream self-owned brands performing more prominently amid divergent business results.
Specifically, October passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 928,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 69%, with exports accounting for 35% of manufacturers' sales volume (compared to 19% last year).
Among these, new energy passenger vehicle exports totaled 582,000 units, surging 145% year-on-year, with A00+A0 segment pure electric vehicles accounting for 56% of pure electric exports.
Since export models are predominantly mid-to-low-priced mainstream vehicles, self-owned brands that focus on value-for-money and economies of scale — such as BYD Company Limited (01211), Chery Auto (09973), and Geely Auto (00175) — demonstrated greater sales resilience driven by exports, while automakers relying on high-end or purely fuel-powered models faced greater pressure.
This reflects the core logic of the current auto market: under the pattern of "domestic stock competition and overseas incremental breakthroughs," the structural dividend of exports is reshaping the competitive ranking of self-owned brands.
The most prominent feature of the October auto market was "a peak season that fell short," with the traditional "Silver October" significantly lacking luster. Because the Mid-Autumn Festival fell in September, October had more selling days, resulting in better performance compared to September.
After the autumn harvest when income is secured and weather turns colder, vehicle usage demand should become more prominent, but this year the purchasing performance of first-time buyers who support autumn and winter market growth was relatively poor. The sluggishness of the A00 and A segments indicates that recent policies have mainly been supporting consumption upgrades, and the raised threshold for subsidy qualifications has somewhat suppressed the car purchasing demand of those without vehicles.
The fuel vehicle market has long lacked new product launches, and rising usage costs are not conducive to the full release of first-time buyers' purchasing power.
1. Recent Narrow Passenger Vehicle Retail Trends
October national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.64 million units, with August to October continuing to strengthen from low levels but not exceeding March retail sales.
The reasons for low October sales are multifaceted, mainly the impact of high oil prices, with the deeper reason being low consumption capacity and willingness. In October 2026, national passenger vehicle retail sales totaled 1.643 million units, down 27% year-on-year and up 1% month-on-month; cumulative passenger vehicle retail sales from January to October reached 16.62 million units, down 23% year-on-year.
In October 2026, the domestic passenger vehicle market showed an operating trend of continued overall pressure, month-on-month strengthening, and extreme structural differentiation.
2. Recent Narrow Passenger Vehicle Wholesale Trends
October national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume reached 2.63 million units, a significant decline compared to the same period. The trend in October over the years has been relatively strong; this year domestic sales were sluggish but exports grew at a high rate, so overall performance returned to stability.
Due to super-strong exports and low domestic wholesale, inventory destocking was effective, and channel pressure improved significantly. October national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume was 2.633 million units, down 10.2% year-on-year and up 3.3% month-on-month. Boosted by the export surge, October passenger vehicle wholesale year-on-year growth rate was 17 percentage points higher than the retail growth rate.
3. Recent Narrow Passenger Vehicle Production Trends
Passenger vehicle production cuts in 2026 were relatively large. Production increases in September and October were relatively stable, forming a sharp contrast with the strong surge in 2025.
This year's continued export strength led October production to a relative new high for the year, but the year-on-year trend declined enormously. October passenger vehicle production was 2.65 million units, down 10% year-on-year, with cumulative production down 7% in 2026, a significant decline under the ultra-high base of October 2025.
4. Recent Narrow Passenger Vehicle Export Trends
October exports rebounded slightly from September, but had been basically strengthening for four consecutive months. The high-speed month-on-month upward trend has changed, and the market is gradually entering a stable period.
October passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 928,000 units, up 68.5% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month, accounting for 35% of passenger vehicle manufacturer sales (36% last month, 19% in the same period of 2025).
5. Monthly Production-Sales-Inventory Change Characteristics
Due to greater market operating pressure in October, October manufacturer wholesale was 21,000 units lower than production, while monthly domestic manufacturer wholesale exceeded domestic retail by 63,000 units.
This year's destocking characteristics are prominent. From January to October, total passenger vehicle industry inventory decreased by 600,000 units (compared to a decrease of 70,000 units in the same period of 2025, 940,000 units in 2024, and 110,000 units in 2023).
6. Narrow Passenger Vehicle Growth Characteristics by Segment
In October 2026, passenger vehicle retail declined 27% while wholesale declined 10%, with retail significantly weaker than wholesale growth, forming a "cold inside, hot outside" pattern. Entry-level consumption was hit hard.
Due to the impact of high oil prices and the suspension of subsidies causing retail decline, October A-segment sedan retail and A00-segment sedan retail were both relatively low. A0-segment sedans and high-end models became the main retail drivers in October, with SUVs showing strong high-end performance, and among sedans, mainly A0-segment sedan sales rebounded.
7. Narrow Passenger Vehicle Growth Characteristics by Country of Origin
October self-owned brand retail was 1.21 million units, down 22% year-on-year and up 7% month-on-month. The domestic retail share of self-owned brands for the month was 73.4%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, self-owned brands performed relatively steadily in the new energy market and export market.
October mainstream joint venture brand retail was 320,000 units, down 38% year-on-year and up 2% month-on-month. October German brand retail share was 12.6%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year; Japanese brand retail share was 10.2%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year; American brand market retail share was 2.7%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. October luxury car retail was 110,000 units, down 39% year-on-year and down 34% month-on-month, with luxury brand retail share at 7%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year.
8. 2026 Brand Production and Sales Characteristics
The original brand value system has changed. Luxury brands have faced increasing pressure recently, joint venture automakers' production and sales trends have continued to face significant pressure, and self-owned brands have obvious industrial chain advantages.
October demand differentiation pressure was relatively large, and the fuel vehicle market performed poorly month-on-month, leading to deteriorating joint venture brand performance. Self-owned brands performed relatively well relying on new energy and exports.
9. National New Energy Penetration Rate - Wholesale
October new energy vehicle manufacturer wholesale penetration rate was 67.3%, up 12 percentage points from October 2025. October self-owned brand new energy vehicle penetration rate was 77.1%; luxury car new energy vehicle penetration rate was 48.4%; mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicle penetration rate rose to 20.7%.
October traditional vehicle manufacturer wholesale declined 35% year-on-year, while new energy vehicles increased 10% year-on-year, a growth rate gap of 45 percentage points. The fuel vehicle market continues to be sluggish, with new energy exports making a large contribution.
10. National New Energy Penetration Rate - Retail
October new energy vehicle retail penetration rate in the overall domestic passenger vehicle market was 67.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from the same period last year and up 0.5 percentage points month-on-month.
In October domestic retail, the new energy vehicle penetration rate among self-owned brands was 84.8%; among luxury cars it was 19.4%; while among mainstream joint venture brands it only rose to 19.7%.
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