On December 19, latest data showed that U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 dropped to 224,000, down 13,000 from the previous week's 237,000 and slightly better than economists' expectations of 225,000. The four-week moving average edged up to 217,500, indicating that overall claims remained within a "moderate fluctuation" range despite holiday seasonality distortions. Recent weeks have seen volatile jobless claims figures due to adjustments around Thanksgiving. Continuing claims for the week ending December 6 rose to 1.897 million, outperforming market expectations of 1.93 million, with the four-week average at 1.902 million (prior revised down to 1.83 million from 1.838 million). Analysts noted that while unemployment rates calculated from BLS data showed an uptick, jobless claims data revealed no signs of acute or widespread labor market stress.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced a 25bps rate hike to 0.75% at midday Friday—its second increase this year—pushing Japan's benchmark rate to its highest level since September 1995. The BOJ stated in its release that the trend of moderate simultaneous growth in wages and prices would persist, while uncertainties from U.S. economic and trade policies had diminished. With real interest rates still negative, accommodative financial conditions would continue supporting Japan's economic activity. The central bank emphasized that if baseline assumptions in its October 2025 Outlook Report materialized—where core CPI (excluding fresh food) dips slightly below 2% in H1 FY2026 before stabilizing at 2% in H2—it would further adjust policy rates and monetary easing.
Key data to watch today includes Germany's January GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK November seasonally adjusted retail sales, Canada's October retail sales, Eurozone December preliminary consumer confidence, U.S. November existing home sales annualized figures, and the final December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
**Gold/USD** Gold consolidated with a minor daily decline yesterday, currently trading near 4327. Profit-taking and stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data weighed on prices. Additionally, disappointing U.S. inflation figures reduced gold's appeal as an inflation hedge. Resistance is eyed at 4360 today, with support at 4300.
**USD/JPY** The pair dipped slightly yesterday amid technical selling pressure near 156.00 and soft U.S. inflation data. Early Asian trading saw modest gains after the BOJ's anticipated rate hike, with the pair now hovering around 155.90. Resistance at 157.00 and support at 155.00 are in focus.
**USD/CAD** The pair edged lower yesterday, pressured by technical selling near 1.3800 and weak U.S. inflation data, though retreating crude prices and a firmer USD index limited losses. It currently trades near 1.3780, with resistance at 1.3850 and support at 1.3700 today.
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