As the commercial space and communications giant SpaceX completes its first month of trading on the US stock market, its shares have experienced significant volatility, drawing widespread attention from international capital markets to the risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI) and tech-themed stock speculation.
Market analysis indicates that as investors have rationally reassessed the company's core business revenue structure and actual profitability, its share price has retreated notably from its highs, leaving many retail investors facing substantial paper losses.
Trading data shows that SpaceX officially debuted on the public market on June 12 of this year, with its IPO priced at $135 per share.
Driven by speculative market sentiment, the stock price surged to $176 on its first trading day, closing at $160.95, setting a record for the largest IPO in global capital market history.
In the following week, the stock continued to attract strong buying interest, reaching an all-time intraday high of $225, with its total market capitalization briefly surpassing that of Amazon.com and Microsoft.
Initial Surge Driven by AI Narrative
Regarding the initial explosive rise in the stock price, CFRA analyst Keith Snyder noted that beyond the personal influence of CEO Elon Musk, a key catalyst was the market's classification of the company as an "AI concept stock."
This followed SpaceX's acquisition of Musk's AI startup xAI (now renamed SpaceXAI) and its move to lease data center computing power assets to other tech firms.
Willy Lee, an investor at primary market intermediary Neosteller, also confirmed that the earlier frenzy for the stock was essentially a capital chase centered on an artificial intelligence narrative.
Valuation Correction as Focus Returns to Core Business
However, the hype around this concept failed to sustain its valuation premium over the long term.
As SpaceX's actual revenue path became clearer, market focus shifted back to its core businesses of manufacturing and launching rockets and building the Starlink satellite communications network.
News that Starlink was cutting prices in the Memphis, Tennessee area, influenced by controversy over a local large-scale data center project, directly triggered a single-day 8% drop in SpaceX's share price.
Amid a broader tech stock pullback, SpaceX subsequently faced concentrated selling pressure.
On July 7, the stock was formally added to the Nasdaq 100 index; the index closed down 1.7% that day, while SpaceX fell a steep 4.4%.
By the end of its first month of trading, SpaceX shares had retreated to around $145, representing a roughly 35% decline from their all-time high.
Retail Investors Bear the Brunt of the Downturn
Industry analysts widely believe the current valuation correction has eroded the assets of retail investors who bought at the peak.
Snyder pointed out that based on fundamental business performance, there remains a risk of SpaceX shares falling further to around $115, which would imply a total valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, with current speculative characteristics somewhat resembling a "meme stock" driven by online sentiment.
Samuel Kerr, Head of Equity Capital Markets Analysis at Mergermarket, added that while early institutional investors who participated in the IPO placement and internal shareholders currently still have paper profits, ordinary investors who bought in during the initial public offering phase are now fully underwater.
Musk's Ambitious Long-Term Outlook Amidst Weakness
Despite the weak stock performance, Musk maintains an aggressive long-term revenue outlook for the company.
Following the IPO's boost to his personal wealth, Musk has stated that SpaceX will achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
According to financial data disclosed for regulatory compliance, SpaceX's total revenue last year was only $18 billion, and the company overall remains in a loss-making operational state; Musk's long-term revenue target is roughly 55 times its current scale.
Furthermore, on June 16 when the stock was near its highs, SpaceX used its own shares as payment currency to acquire AI coding startup Cursor in an all-stock deal worth $60 billion.
Kerr commented that this move demonstrated high-level financial engineering skill by utilizing the inflated stock price to complete an asset acquisition.
Key Catalysts on the Horizon
International financial institutions and investors are now closely watching SpaceX's first post-IPO quarterly earnings report, which is expected in early August.
Investment bank Morgan Stanley maintained an optimistic outlook in a research report released last week, setting a price target of $300 for SpaceX.
Market analysts emphasize that beyond the earnings report, August will also see the expiration of the employee share lock-up period.
The combination of an increase in freely tradable shares and the disclosure of fundamental data could trigger a new round of capital maneuvering and significant volatility for the stock.
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