Abstract
Teck Resources Ltd will post its quarterly results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to year-over-year top-line growth, expanding operating earnings, and sharply higher EPS as the company cycles prior-year comparables and focuses on execution in its core metal segments.
Market Forecast
For the quarter to be reported, aggregated estimates indicate Teck Resources Ltd is expected to deliver revenue of $2.90 billion, up 10.23% year over year, EBIT of $791.76 million, up 62.01% year over year, and EPS of $0.96, up 147.20% year over year. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net margin have not been disclosed, but the combination of higher EBIT growth relative to revenue and the substantial EPS uplift implies a margin recovery embedded in expectations versus the prior year.
The company’s revenue base is anchored by two core businesses that together accounted for the vast majority of last quarter sales: zinc at $1.72 billion and copper at $1.67 billion. Among these, copper appears to be the most promising near-term contributor given the earnings forecast profile and operating leverage implied by the step-up in EBIT and EPS; copper posted $1.67 billion last quarter, and while segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed, the overall top-line growth and EBIT trajectory suggest supportive dynamics.
Last Quarter Review
Teck Resources Ltd reported revenue of $3.39 billion, up 18.44% year over year, a gross profit margin of 19.50%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $281.00 million with a net profit margin of 8.30%, and adjusted EPS of $0.76, up 26.67% year over year.
A key highlight was profitability momentum: net profit increased by 36.41% quarter over quarter, outpacing revenue trends and indicating improved cost and mix management into the period. Main business performance was balanced across its core segments, with zinc revenue of $1.72 billion and copper revenue of $1.67 billion, together underpinning the 18.44% year-over-year increase in total revenue and reinforcing the breadth of the top-line recovery.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business outlook: Zinc and copper
Teck Resources Ltd’s quarter-on-quarter setup features a customary seasonal step down in revenue from $3.39 billion last quarter to a forecast $2.90 billion, yet with a 10.23% year-over-year advance. The estimates also point to a pronounced earnings scaling: EBIT is projected at $791.76 million, up 62.01% year over year, while EPS is projected at $0.96, up 147.20% year over year. Taken together, this pattern indicates that the company’s operational plan embeds margin expansion from the prior-year base, even as sequential volume or pricing seasonality moderates the top line versus the previous quarter.
Within the main business mix, the prior quarter’s revenue split was essentially even between zinc and copper, demonstrating a diversified earnings base. The estimate profile for the current quarter, with EBIT rising notably faster than revenue year over year, suggests efficiency gains, improved price realizations versus the year-ago period, or unit cost normalization compared to the prior-year quarter’s operating baseline. Because margin forecasts are not explicitly provided, the best read-through comes from EPS and EBIT, which imply that the company aims to translate sales into operating profit more effectively than a year earlier.
Operational execution will be central to translating this setup into results. The company’s ability to maintain concentrate grades, manage maintenance schedules, and optimize logistics can influence realized pricing and unit costs in both core segments. In a quarter with a sequential revenue step down but a year-over-year step up, shipment timing and product mix will be important, particularly for payables and treatment charges that influence gross-to-net conversion across the portfolio. The last quarter’s improvement in net profitability metrics and the robust EPS trajectory implied by consensus are consistent with a focus on cost control and disciplined commercial execution into this print.
Most promising segment: Copper
Copper stands out as the most promising near-term earnings driver within Teck Resources Ltd’s product suite. Last quarter copper generated $1.67 billion of revenue, on par with zinc and a core pillar of the company’s sales mix. For the upcoming quarter, while segment-level forecasts are not available, the shape of the consolidated forecast—EBIT rising 62.01% year over year and EPS up 147.20%—is consistent with meaningful operating leverage, which aligns well with copper’s high contribution margin potential within the portfolio.
From a financial translation standpoint, the magnitude of expected EPS improvement relative to revenue growth implies accretive mix and scaling benefits that copper is well placed to deliver. As revenues stabilize on a year-over-year basis and cost normalization works through the system, copper’s contribution can have an outsized impact on consolidated profitability due to its sensitivity to realized pricing and the capital intensity that fixes a portion of the cost base. This means that small improvements in price realization or unit cost can translate into a larger swing in operating profit, providing a credible link between the forecasted EBIT uplift and consolidated EPS gains.
Additionally, transaction and regulatory developments related to the company have been topical in the period and can influence sentiment surrounding copper optionality at an enterprise level. Recent milestones around combination-related clearances reported within the quarter’s window add clarity to the corporate backdrop, and while these do not directly change the quarter’s operations, the market often reads reduced transaction uncertainty as supportive for valuation multiples, particularly for assets with embedded growth and operating leverage characteristics. In this context, copper’s scale within Teck Resources Ltd’s revenue base helps position it as a focal point for investors searching for earnings momentum consistent with the consensus trajectory.
Key stock price drivers this quarter
The most visible near-term driver is the earnings event itself on February 18, 2026 Post Market, which will test whether the company can deliver on the forecasted revenue growth and the step-change in profitability implied by the 62.01% year-over-year increase in EBIT and the 147.20% rise in EPS. The interplay of shipment timing, realized pricing, and cost absorption will be central to whether margins track the improvement implied by the earnings forecast. If revenue converges on the $2.90 billion estimate and EBIT approaches $791.76 million, the translation to EPS and operating cash flow should be supportive for the quarter’s narrative.
Sequential dynamics versus last quarter will also matter for stock reaction. With last quarter revenue of $3.39 billion, consensus implies a seasonal contraction into the fourth-quarter run rate, yet with a stronger year-over-year base effect that enhances profitability ratios. Investors will likely parse whether gross margin improves from the prior-year quarter, even though a specific margin forecast is not available; EPS and EBIT suggest that the company may attain better profitability even on a slightly lower sequential revenue base. The market’s tolerance for any variance will hinge on the quality of beats or misses—particularly whether any deviation comes from controllable items such as costs and mix, or from uncontrollable factors that would be viewed as transient.
Finally, corporate developments discussed publicly in the period, including progress of regulatory processes surrounding strategic transactions, can influence valuation spreads and short-term sentiment. Clearer transaction pathways can compress uncertainty discounts and orient focus back to earnings power and capital allocation. Against this backdrop, strong execution in copper and stable contribution from zinc can help validate the projected earnings inflection and sustain interest from institutions that have turned incrementally constructive ahead of the print. The combination of a quantifiable consensus improvement in profitability and a cleaner corporate narrative is the near-term setup the stock is carrying into the report.
Analyst Opinions
Across dated views from January 1, 2026 to February 11, 2026, the balance of opinions we identified skews bullish. We count a higher share of bullish views than bearish ones in this window, with a notable upgrade to Buy by a major global institution that signals improved confidence in Teck Resources Ltd’s near-term earnings trajectory. The majority, therefore, is bullish.
Citing the most prominent example in the period, Citigroup upgraded Teck Resources Ltd to Buy. While the full text of the rationale is not provided here, the timing of the upgrade coincides with the market’s expectation for a 10.23% year-over-year revenue increase, a 62.01% uplift in EBIT, and a 147.20% increase in EPS for the forthcoming quarter. That constellation—revenue growth combined with substantial operating and bottom-line leverage—aligns with a thesis that the company’s earnings power is tracking upward as the year-ago base is lapped and operating efficiencies are realized. In the context of last quarter’s print, where net profit rose 36.41% sequentially and adjusted EPS grew 26.67% year over year, the upgrade can be interpreted as a vote of confidence that these trends can continue, or even accelerate, into the coming release.
Our assessment is that the bullish cohort is coalescing around three quantifiable anchors. First, the revenue estimate of $2.90 billion supports the view that top-line recovery versus the prior year is underway, even if sequentially down from $3.39 billion last quarter due to seasonal dynamics. Second, the step-change in profit metrics implied by a 62.01% year-over-year increase in EBIT provides a clear mechanism for margin improvement without needing a large top-line surprise. Third, the 147.20% forecast increase in EPS suggests that non-operating factors such as interest or tax are not expected to offset operating gains in a material way this quarter, leaving the operating uplift to flow through to per-share earnings. When considered together, these three anchors make a straightforward case for constructive revisions and a favorable skew in the distribution of potential outcomes.
In addition to rating actions, the period also included a company notice about the timing of the earnings release, and public updates around regulatory clearances related to strategic transactions were observed within the window. While these are not ratings per se, they shape institutional positioning by reducing event uncertainty and focusing attention on delivery against earnings metrics. The bullish view integrates these elements by framing the forthcoming quarter as an opportunity for Teck Resources Ltd to validate the narrative of improving operating leverage, particularly given the balanced contribution of zinc and copper and the potential for higher incremental margins as efficiency gains carry through.
Investors aligned with the bullish stance will likely watch for four confirmation points on February 18, 2026 Post Market: whether revenue tracks the $2.90 billion area, whether EBIT approaches or exceeds $791.76 million, whether adjusted EPS converges on $0.96, and whether management commentary indicates that the drivers of year-over-year margin expansion are durable into the next quarter. Delivery on these items would substantiate the upgrade rationale observed in the period and could support sustained interest from institutions looking to add exposure on evidence of improved earnings power. Conversely, even a modest miss could be digested constructively if the company demonstrates clear control over costs and provides visibility on shipment timing, thereby reinforcing the medium-term trajectory implied by the current estimates.
In summary, the majority of recent institutional commentary we reviewed within the stated window is bullish. The upgrade to Buy by a leading international bank underscores a constructive view that the forecasted uplift in EBIT and EPS is achievable, supported by the solid prior quarter performance and diversified revenue base, with copper positioned as a central swing factor. With the earnings event scheduled for February 18, 2026 Post Market, the market will soon have a definitive read on how well Teck Resources Ltd is tracking against the consensus framework that underpins this positive stance.
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