“特斯拉们”不能忽视的风险：供应一旦跟不上步伐，锂价或再度飙升！

华尔街见闻2023-01-16

随着电动汽车不断的发展，全球锂价经历了两年的疯狂飚涨，而从去年11月份之后，出现降温迹象，2023年全球锂价将走向何方仍存在很大的不确定性。据媒体周一报道，电动汽车制造商们希望，在经历连续两年的供不应求后，即将到来的锂供应浪潮将为电动车的扩张计划带来缓解，但锂金属领域的死多头们却警告称，如果生产商无法如约交付，锂矿市场可能将面临更多的痛苦！托克锂交易商Claire Blancheland表示：我...

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Mingzu
2023-01-16
Mingzu
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liuxiangwei
2023-01-16
liuxiangwei
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yuliang559
2023-01-16
yuliang559
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hangyuliang
2023-01-16
hangyuliang
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Linda2240
2023-01-16
Linda2240
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Blancheland表示：我真的不认为有任何理由相信，今年会神奇地出现这么多吨锂供应，使市场恢复平衡。2023决定锂价的关键：供应几乎出乎所有人意料的锂需求疯涨是推动锂价飙升的关键。全球电动汽车销量的迅猛增长，导致锂消费量在过去两年翻了一番。根据媒体的统计，由于锂供应商无法跟上需求增长步伐，锂价大幅上涨，2022年锂现货交易价值一路飙升至了约350亿美元，而在2020年时这一规模仅为30亿美元。展望未来，一些看空锂价的观察人士表示，2023年的决定性因素将是快速增长的供应，而非令人眼花缭乱的需求。媒体调查的分析师预测显示，在2022年出现明显短缺后，全球市场将更加平衡，而中国最大的电动汽车销售商比亚迪预言锂市场将出现供应过剩。然而，也有许多持怀疑态度的人警告称，如果从智利、澳大利亚到中国的锂矿商在实现大量新供应时遇到障碍，供给就会出现新的紧张局面。根据一项最新的预测显示，2023年锂产量增长将在22%-42%之间，这对任何复杂的采掘业来说都是一个惊人的增速。痛苦尚未结束 监管、技术和商业挑战重重虽然目前普遍认为，随着新一波项目扩张，2023年锂供应将大幅增加。一些看空锂价的人士更是认为，在中国新能源汽车将告别补贴之际，供应浪潮将冲击市场，可能造成供需不匹配，继而引发锂价大幅度的下跌。供应乐观的一个原因是，最大的增长将来自老牌生产巨头，如雅宝和智利SQM，它们被认为更有可能成功增产。但存在分歧的问题是，那些实力较差的生产商是否能够克服监管、技术和商业挑战等一系列的挑战，全面实现交付目标。蒙特利尔银行资本市场的数据显示，雅宝和SQM等顶级锂矿商其实仅占预期总体产量增幅的三分之一左右。规模较小的锂生产商需要证明自己能够完成项目建设，并成功投入运营。此外，开采许可也是一个不容忽视的问题，Global Lithium LLC咨询公司创始人Joe Lowry表示，如果说五年前的今天，锂行业面临的最大问题是缺乏投资，现在最重要的问题是许可和项目执行。部分非传统的锂矿新资源，比如锂云母提锂，一种在中国作为重要提锂技术，是否能够取得项目突破也将是关键，摩根大通曾认为这是对高锂价的最大威胁之一。目前，锂云母提锂存在提锂难度大、成本高，以及废渣难处理的环境污染问题。更温和的市场：锂价或趋于平稳目前，锂价已经从去年11月创下的惊人记录下降了约20%，令电动汽车厂商获得暂时的喘息。截止1月13日，中国电池级碳酸锂价格已跌至每吨人民币48.05万元(约合7.15万美元)，创下8月以来的最低水平。根据一项媒体的调查，今年锂价的平均水平可能比2022年回落约8%。尽管如此，监管、技术和商业等重重挑战意味着汽车制造商的供应和成本令人担忧，对于多番降价抢占市场的“特斯拉们”来说，锂矿供应能否跟上步伐，是成本会否再度上升的关键。电池材料行业咨询公司House Mountain Partners的总裁Chris 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