[Brokerage Focus] B.Riley raises ULTA Beauty (ULTA) target price by 30%, referring to positive changes in recent earnings trends

金吾财讯01-08

Jinwu Financial News B.Riley reported that the bank is updating ULTA information because the key pillars of the previous argument have weakened, especially the doubts about the inflection point of the positive comparison in 2025 and the resulting pressure on operating profits. The updated fourth quarter guidance calls for "moderately positive" same-store sales, which, if achieved, would mark two consecutive quarters of positive performance, suggesting greater achievability of a sustained same-store sales turnaround through 2025. Additionally, Q3 and Q4 results beat expectations, raising the likelihood of embedding a buffer in the early 2025 commentary provided by Analyst Day, for example, if an operating margin of "at least" 11% is actually close to 12%, this could sustain upward earnings revision momentum in at least Q4 earnings per share (EPS) on March 13, 2025.

The bank said that while competition is still viewed as the main long-term threat, positive changes in recent earnings trends, even from a lower base, may be more than enough to offset such concerns. The bank upgraded its rating to neutral and raised its price target from $330 to $430.

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