Results from ASML, the Dutch microchip-equipment making giant, have moved Wall Street before.
This photograph taken on March 27, 2024 in Veldhoven shows containers of Dutch tech giant ASML, which supplies chipmaking machines to the semiconductor industry. ASML reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday.
But after Monday’s fears over demand for artificial-intelligence microchips fueled by the rise of low-cost Chinese AI chatbot DeepSeek, the company’s results due Wednesday morning may have even more sway.
ASML shares slumped 7% on Monday, its worst single-day performance since Oct. 15, when it issued a profit warning in a sloppily issued release on its website.
According to analysts polled by Visible Alpha, the Nasdaq-100 component is expected to report a 29% profit rise in the fourth quarter on 25% sales growth. Analysts expect the company to have shipped 122 of its giant machines and report bookings of €3.99 billion ($4.2 billion).
In October, ASML forecast 2025 sales between €30 billion and €35 billion.
Analysts at Citi led by Andrew Gardiner say the DeepSeek-fueled decline put ASML at the low end of its 5-year trading range. They also say investor expectations on orders are weaker than the consensus analyst estimates, with expectations as pessimistic as €2 billion.
As a result, ASML has a lower hurdle to reach, they said.
The broader implications of DeepSeek is a shift from a few very large, compute and power-hungry clusters in the datacenter to significantly more numerous, but cheaper and more efficient devices at the edge, the Citi analysts said. “This is not necessarily a zero-sum game for the semi industry, but it is also not a pure negative; the give and take between the two will take time to assess,” they said.
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