小米YU7、自研芯片、新机“定档”，高盛：买！

华尔街见闻05-19

高盛认为，凭借其强大的资产负债表、软硬件整合能力以及成本优势，小米有望构建全球最大的消费级物理智能生态系统。预计小米一季度AIoT收入同比增长约50%，玄戒O1芯片的推出进一步助力小米高端化战略，YU7今明两年交付量分别达到8.5万和36万辆。5月19日，小米汽车在官方微博宣布，将于5月22日19点发布小米SUV车型YU7，自研手机SoC芯片玄戒O1和小米15SPro旗舰手机将于同日发布。雷军透露...

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Buy!","themeId":"88ed7eb929fb6adeb881ad8945e399a3","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6239fac98400d3473be6d852c9047417","symbols_score_info":{"01810":1.1},"content_text":"高盛认为，凭借其强大的资产负债表、软硬件整合能力以及成本优势，小米有望构建全球最大的消费级物理智能生态系统。预计小米一季度AIoT收入同比增长约50%，玄戒O1芯片的推出进一步助力小米高端化战略，YU7今明两年交付量分别达到8.5万和36万辆。5月19日，小米汽车在官方微博宣布，将于5月22日19点发布小米SUV车型YU7，自研手机SoC芯片玄戒O1和小米15SPro旗舰手机将于同日发布。雷军透露，这次重磅新品特别多：手机SoC芯片小米玄戒O1，小米15SPro，小米平板7 Ultra，小米首款SUV 小米YU7等。消息公布后，相关话题一度冲上热搜。据追风交易台消息，18日，高盛发布研报，预计小米一季度智能手机、大家电及平板业务表现强劲。小米在智能手机领域持续获得市场份额，尤其是在中国市场，其高端化进程稳步推进。尽管全球智能手机出货量增长放缓，但自研玄戒O1芯片的推出可能进一步助力小米高端化战略。在AIoT业务方面，高盛预计AIoT收入同比增长约50%，尤其是大家电和平板电脑将成为AIoT业务的重要增长点。预计2025年SU7(含SU7 Ultra)交付量约为32万辆，YU7约为8.5万辆。高盛对小米维持\"买入\"评级，目标价上调至62港元。智能手机业务稳步提升市场份额5月17日晚，在小米15周年战略新品先导发布直播中，小米集团总裁卢伟冰透露，“‘玄戒O1’芯片是小米造芯10年的关键里程碑，非常值得大家期待；搭载小米自研‘玄戒O1’芯片的产品有好几款，不仅仅是手机。”雷军表示，只有做高端旗舰SoC，才会真正掌握先进的芯片技术，才能更好支持我们的高端化战略；小米玄戒O1采用第二代3nm工艺制程，力争跻身第一梯队旗舰体验。高盛在研报中对小米2025年智能手机出货量预期（1.7亿部）低于市场共识（1.81亿部），但看好小米在中国市场持续从苹果和荣耀等品牌中获取市场份额。高盛的数据显示：2025年一季度全球智能手机市场同比增长1%，小米全球市场份额达14%截至5月11日的52周中，小米在中国市场的47周实现同比份额增长，优于OPPO、苹果和荣耀等竞争对手高盛认为，自研玄戒O1芯片的推出可能进一步助力小米高端化战略，类似于苹果Mac自研芯片后的市场表现（自2020年11月发布自研芯片后，Mac全球PC市场份额平均提升约2个百分点至9%）。也有业内人士称，随着小米自研手机芯片的发布，小米将成为继苹果、三星、华为之后，全球唯四、国产唯二拥有核心自研芯片的手机品牌。有券商分析师评价称，“玄戒O1”的发布标志着小米芯片技术自主权的真正突破。AIoT业务高速增长高盛表示，小米AIoT业务表现亮眼，一季度收入同比增长约50%，远超行业平均水平：大家电领域：国内空调、洗衣机和冰箱销售额分别同比增长103%、184%和145%；电视和净水器销售额分别同比增长7%和78%平板电脑：全球出货量同比增长57%至310万台，在全球和中国均位居第三高盛预计，大家电和平板电脑作为两个最重要的AIoT细分领域，将在2027年贡献AIoT业务约40%的销售额和50%的毛利，高于2024年的30%/35%水平。小米电动车工厂二期已于4月中旬通过政府验收，且于上周交付小米，这意味着很快将开始试生产。同时，三期工程也显示出早期迹象。高盛预计：SU7（包括SU7 Ultra）2025/26年交付量将达约32万/33.5万辆YU7预计交付量约8.5万/36万辆，相当于特斯拉Model Y在中国销量是Model 3的2.3倍AI生态加速构建值得注意的是，小米还在4月30日推出了首个开源推理型大语言模型MiMo：MiMo-7B尽管参数量较小但能适用于高端智能手机，在公开数学推理和代码竞赛评估中超过了OpenAI的o1-mini和阿里巴巴的QwQ-32B-Preview小米OS原生AI助手\"超级小爱\"月活用户达8,200万，成为中国AI原生应用中排名第五的产品高盛认为，凭借超过7亿活跃智能手机安装基础和9亿多连接的AIoT设备，小米正在构建全球最大的AIoT生态系统，有望打造无处不在的消费者导向型物理智能生态系统。高盛维持小米2025-27年收入预测基本不变，但上调了同期调整后净利润预测3-6%，以反映更强劲的IoT销售和毛利润前景：2025年一季度预计收入同比增长45%至1095亿元调整后净利润同比增长70%至94亿元目标价从59港元上调至62港元，基于：1) 小米核心业务23倍2026年EV/NOPAT；2) 小米电动车业务740亿美元的DCF估值；3) 10%控股公司折扣四大积极催化剂，助力股价回升在13日的研报中，德银认为，在未来两个月内，小米将有四个积极的催化剂：一是一季度业绩报告。报告预计，小米2025年一季度销售额将同比增长9%，达到75869辆， “智能电动汽车及其他新业务”的毛利率将环比增长至22%。因此，德银预计小米电动汽车业务的净亏损将同比下降87%，环比下降57%，约为3亿元人民币；一季度总收入将持平，约为1090亿元人民币，毛利率为230亿元人民币（环比增长3%）；一季度经调整净利润为100亿元（同比增54%，环比增20%）。二是“Xring”芯片发布。三是投资者日活动。公开信息显示，小米计划于6月3日举办“2025投资者日”会议，随后于6月4日至5日在北京进行智能电动汽车工厂参观。四是“YU7”SUV发布。 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