Moody's downgrades U.S. AAA rating, but this time it's much different from 2011

华尔街见闻05-18

Wall Street veteran Jim Bianco believes that the actual impact of this rating downgrade on the U.S. bond market may be "insignificant." The market panic in 2011 was that the U.S. Treasury Bond may no longer meet the conditions of qualified collateral, and many institutions were forced to sell U.S. debt. However, now that the system has been completely adjusted, rating changes will no longer trigger compulsory measures or selling. The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded again, and the U.S. bond market will usher in a riot moment in 2011? In 2011, after S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating, U.S. stocks suffered a sharp sell-off, and the S&P 500 index fell more than 7% that day. U.S. debt also experienced...

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The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded again, and the U.S. bond market will usher in a riot moment in 2011? In 2011, after S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating, U.S. stocks suffered a sharp sell-off, and the S&P 500 index fell more than 7% that day. U.S. debt also experienced...</p><p><a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747292\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moody's downgrades U.S. AAA rating, but this time it's much different from 2011</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMoody's downgrades U.S. AAA rating, but this time it's much different from 2011\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2025-05-18 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Wall Street veteran Jim Bianco believes that the actual impact of this rating downgrade on the U.S. bond market may be \"insignificant.\" The market panic in 2011 was that the U.S. Treasury Bond may no longer meet the conditions of qualified collateral, and many institutions were forced to sell U.S. debt. However, now that the system has been completely adjusted, rating changes will no longer trigger compulsory measures or selling. The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded again, and the U.S. bond market will usher in a riot moment in 2011? In 2011, after S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating, U.S. stocks suffered a sharp sell-off, and the S&P 500 index fell more than 7% that day. U.S. debt also experienced...</p><p><a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747292\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747292\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747292","article_id":"2536637269","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c19ac0163f6b854ab941381c53aa7d"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747292","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2536637269","pubTimestamp":1747524236,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"华尔街老将Jim Bianco认为，本次评级下调对美债市场的实际影响可能“无足轻重”。2011年市场的恐慌在于美国国债可能不再符合合格抵押品的条件，很多机构是被迫抛售美债，但是现在制度已完全调整，评级变动不会再触发强制的措施或抛售的行为。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":["rate"],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"Moody's downgrades U.S. AAA rating, but this time it's much different from 2011","themeId":"eb2c482a8602b0b7efc8344bcfc907e3","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bd5454a2db5866c5f0141debd2b6bc","symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1.1,".DJI":1.1,".SPX":1.1},"content_text":"华尔街老将Jim Bianco认为，本次评级下调对美债市场的实际影响可能“无足轻重”。2011年市场的恐慌在于美国国债可能不再符合合格抵押品的条件，很多机构是被迫抛售美债，但是现在制度已完全调整，评级变动不会再触发强制的措施或抛售的行为。美国信用评级再次遭遇下调，美债市场又将迎来2011年的暴动时刻？2011年，标普下调美国信用评级之后，美股遭遇了大幅抛售，标普500指数当天跌超7%。美债也经历了大抛售，推动10年期美债收益率大幅攀升16个基点。不过，对于穆迪下调美国评级后的市场反应，华尔街老将、Bianco Research总裁Jim Bianco认为，本次评级下调或将成为一场“无事发生”的表演，对市场的实际影响可能“无足轻重”。他认为，2011年标普下调评级后，市场的恐慌在于美国国债可能不再符合合格抵押品的条件，很多机构是被迫抛售美债。Bianco称：2011年之后，这些合约被重新撰写，将对证券的要求调整为\"政府证券\"，取消了对信用评级的特定资格要求，评级变动不会再触发强制的措施或抛售的行为。因此，这不会强迫任何人在周一做任何事，什么都没改变。2011年为何引发市场恐慌？回溯2011年8月，当标普首次将美国从AAA下调至AA+时，市场经历了恐慌性时刻，尤其是美债市场一度遭遇大幅抛售。在评级下调当日，10年期美债遭遇大幅抛售，收益率上行16个基点，2年期美债收益率则先上行3个基点，对于美债市场前期的大幅抛售，Bianco在社交媒体发文称，当时之所以\"天塌下来\"，是因为大量衍生品合约、贷款协议和投资指令禁止使用任何非AAA级别的证券。\"当时的恐惧在于美国国债可能不再符合合格抵押品的条件，这可能导致一些人违反投资指令或陷入技术性违约。”换而言之，2011年时候，很多机构是被迫抛售美债，引发了美债市场的恐慌时刻。值得注意的是，在起初大涨之后，10年期美债收益率一个月内大幅下行56个基点，从3%降至2.1%。2年期美债收益率在一个月内下行9个基点。分析认为，主要有以下三大原因：尽管评级下调利空美债市场，但是避险需求推动，投资者反而抢购美债，这就是为什么10年期美债收益率在随后一个月内大幅下行的原因。当时宏观面还面临着全球经济经济放缓和欧债危机余波未了的背景下，美债仍然被视为最安全的流动性资产。在评级下调之后，投资者预期美联储会进一步宽松政策以对冲评级影响，因而纷纷买入债券，也压低了美债收益率。现在已经大不同2011年美债收益率在评级下调当天出现的问题，现在已经不存在了，因为制度已完全调整，评级变动不会再触发强制的措施或抛售的行为。据Bianco分析：“2011年之后，这些合约被重新撰写，将对证券的要求调整为\"政府证券\"，取消了对信用评级的特定资格要求。正是因为这一变化，2023年8月惠誉将美国评级下调至AA+时，对债券市场几乎没有产生任何影响。”最后，Bianco表示，从技术上讲，穆迪下调美国信用评级甚至没有改变美国的整体信用评级，因为此前美国评级本来就被分成了AA+，现在则统一被评为AA+。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2536637269","isCrawlerRequest":true}