【期货热点追踪】消息面扰动和仓单持续减少，碳酸锂持续走高

金十数据07-18

碳酸锂期货盘初拉升，主力合约涨超3%。消息面，力拓25Q2的生产报告正式公布了Mt Cattlin锂矿停产的消息。同时，国内藏格矿业子公司锂资源停产。近期受消息扰动和仓单持续减少的影响，碳酸锂价格持续走高。据21财经，藏格矿业昨日午间公告称，全资子公司藏格钾肥于昨日收到海西州自然资源局、海西州盐湖管理局下发的《关于责令立即停止锂资源开发利用活动的通知》，藏格矿业回应称，上述两家公司均在同一矿区，...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202507181011099546e7a1&s=b><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>碳酸锂期货盘初拉升，主力合约涨超3%。消息面，力拓25Q2的生产报告正式公布了Mt Cattlin锂矿停产的消息。同时，国内藏格矿业子公司锂资源停产。近期受消息扰动和仓单持续减少的影响，碳酸锂价格持续走高。据21财经，藏格矿业昨日午间公告称，全资子公司藏格钾肥于昨日收到海西州自然资源局、海西州盐湖管理局下发的《关于责令立即停止锂资源开发利用活动的通知》，藏格矿业回应称，上述两家公司均在同一矿区，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202507181011099546e7a1&s=b\">Source 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Global的“金属贸易回顾”系列报告之一显示，亚洲锂市场在第三季度持续面临下行压力，因持续的供应过剩和整个价值链库存水平的上升对价格构成压力。尽管价格下跌，但上游矿产商和中游精炼厂并未大幅减产，且7月和8月是电动汽车典型的销售淡季，导致价格进一步承压。据中粮期货，碳酸锂现货价格整体走强，但下游接受度偏低，上游锂盐企业虽已出现试探性调价举措，但整体报价策略仍保持相对审慎，成交主要集中于贸易商环节。多家正极厂表示，目前客供和长协的订单可以覆盖需求，散单刚需较少，高价碳酸锂维持观望态势。因龙头下游接仓单，碳酸锂库存也主要增长在贸易端和下游。机构如何看待碳酸锂后市价格走势？光大期货：锂矿价格延续上涨，叠加市场消息面扰动较多，短期仍或将刺激价格上涨供应端，7月产量预计环比增加3.9%至81150吨，周度产量环比增加690吨至18813吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加409吨至8994吨，锂云母提锂环比增加230吨至5075吨，盐湖提锂环比增加63吨至3265吨，回收料提锂环比减少12吨至1479吨；进口方面，5-6月智利锂盐出口基本持平，预计整体7月碳酸锂进口环比变化不大。需求端，7月排产环比小幅增加，两大主材消耗碳酸锂环比增加3%至8.08万吨左右。库存端，周度库存环比增加1827吨至142620吨，其中下游环比增加506吨至41271吨，中间环节环比增加1880吨至43310吨，上游环比减少559吨至58039吨。消息面持续发酵，仓单持续减少，锂矿价格延续上涨，叠加市场消息面扰动较多，短期仍或将刺激价格上涨，关注仓单库存情况。东吴期货：若供应端未出现实质性的减量，高供应高库存背景下，锂价向上压力逐步增大短期碳酸锂供需基本面并没有出现显著的变化以及预期，碳酸锂前期的涨幅也不及广期所另外两个品种。反内卷背景下，市场对于产业链相关消息的敏感高。展望后市，若供应端未出现实质性的减量，高供应高库存背景下，锂价向上压力逐步增大。关注宏观市场情绪以及产业链政策变化。中粮期货：静观其变7月17日，碳酸锂午后冲高后小幅回落，主力合约收涨2.47%，报67960元/吨。午后开盘冲高，或与藏格矿业发布的公告相关。7月16日，藏格矿业子公司格尔木藏格钾肥接海西州自然资源局通知，要求暂停锂资源开发。涉事产量约占需求的1%，对碳酸锂影响有限，企业正配合完善开采手续。新湖期货：短期受情绪面及资金影响不宜过分看空，从基本面来看中期仍为确定性过剩格局昨日碳酸锂期价午盘快速拉升，主因藏格矿业公告其全资子公司格藏格钾肥收到《关于责令立即停止锂资源开发利用活动的通知》，供给端扰动助推市场情绪，从实质影响来看25年，藏格锂业计划实现碳酸锂产量11,000吨，H1预计实现碳酸锂产量5,350吨,全年实质扰动量级极小，主要为情绪面及预期层面助涨。现阶段碳酸锂处于“弱现实强预期”格局，资源端担忧仍存，投机情绪较浓，从基本面看未有明显变化，SMM周度碳酸锂样本库存延续累库（环比+1.3%），渠道库存持续处于高位态势，短期受情绪面及资金影响不宜过分看空，从基本面来看中期仍为确定性过剩格局，建议待短期情绪消退后择机建立空单。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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