中国互联网巨头季报看点：AI云的增长有多快？外卖的拖累有多大？

华尔街见闻08-06

中国互联网巨头即将公布二季度财报，预计业绩表现将走向分化，AI和外卖业务仍是市场关注焦点。据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Ronald Keung及其团队在近日的报告中表示，预计中国互联网巨头二季度财报将呈现分化格局，受电商和本地服务平台拖累，整体利润将出现2022年二季度以来首次同比下滑10%，但AI云业务的加速增长和游戏等细分领域的健康表现将为部分公司提供支撑。分公司看，高盛预期腾讯、网易、...

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How big is the drag on takeaway?","themeId":"5b797ab44af4248296a77faf2b2200b9","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f03095ffc78854d46e3bef1d820515","symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"JD":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"09618":0.6,"BABA":0.9,"03690":0.61,"MPNGY":0.6,"METmain":0.6,"09988":0.6},"content_text":"中国互联网巨头即将公布二季度财报，预计业绩表现将走向分化，AI和外卖业务仍是市场关注焦点。\n据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Ronald Keung及其团队在近日的报告中表示，预计中国互联网巨头二季度财报将呈现分化格局，受电商和本地服务平台拖累，整体利润将出现2022年二季度以来首次同比下滑10%，但AI云业务的加速增长和游戏等细分领域的健康表现将为部分公司提供支撑。\n分公司看，高盛预期腾讯、网易、滴滴等公司将保持稳健盈利增长，其中腾讯调整后EBIT增长15%，滴滴增长32%，网易增长20%。这与交易平台形成鲜明对比，阿里巴巴集团EBITA预计下滑16%，美团和京东EBIT则分别下跌58%和70%。\n对投资者而言，关键看点集中在三大主线：AI云服务的收入增长加速、外卖竞争导致的显著利润下滑，以及各企业对“反内卷”政策的回应。\nAI云业务增长势头强劲\n高盛预计中国互联网巨头的AI云业务将在二季度实现显著增长加速。\n报告预计，阿里云收入增长预计从一季度的18%提升至23%，尽管仍低于同期谷歌云32%、微软Azure 39%的增幅，但已显示出明显的向好趋势。\n这一增长主要由AI推理需求激增和AI应用快速发展驱动。据高盛估算，字节跳动6月的日处理token达到15万亿，而阿里巴巴约为4-5万亿，显示出AI推理需求在2025年上半年的大幅增长。\n高盛估算，谷歌日均token处理量已从5月的16万亿增至7月的33万亿，字节跳动6月达到15万亿，阿里巴巴约为4-5万亿，显示AI推理需求快速增长。\n在今年的世界人工智能大会(WAIC)上，各大厂商展示了最新AI进展。腾讯发布了“混元世界1.0”开源3D世界生成模型，阿里巴巴推出“夸克AI眼镜”并升级了Qwen模型系列，京东重新品牌化其大语言模型为JoyAI。这些技术进步预计将在下半年转化为实际收入增长。\n外卖竞争激烈拖累平台利润\n外卖市场的激烈竞争正成为交易平台业绩的主要拖累因素。\n受此影响，报告预计，阿里巴巴集团EBITA同比下降16%，美团和京东的EBIT分别下降58%和70%。\n具体损失方面，高盛估算阿里6月季度外卖业务亏损110亿元，9月季度将扩大至190亿元；京东外卖业务二季度亏损超过100亿元。美团作为市场领导者，其二、三、四季度外卖业务每单利润预计将从此前的0.8/0.4/0.4元下调至0.7/0.2/0.4元。\n报告指出，竞争不仅限于传统外卖业务，还扩展至即时购物领域。据报道，阿里巴巴即时购物日峰值订单量已达1500万单，而美团闪购为2000万单。拼多多也推出了即时购物和即时配送服务，这将进一步加剧市场竞争。\n高盛预期，各电商平台将继续通过外卖业务获取新用户，特别是在四季度双十一购物节前夕。长期而言，这可能导致外卖市场从目前美团、阿里7.5:2.5的双寡头格局转变为5.5:3.5:1的三足鼎立局面，京东成为第三极。\n各大平台业绩分化明显，游戏和出行业务展现韧性\n在整体利润承压背景下，游戏和出行细分领域预计将保持强劲增长，这也是高盛最看好的两个子板块。\n报告显示，腾讯预计将交出稳健成绩单，二季度收入增长11%，调整后EBIT增长15%。其游戏业务表现突出，《三角洲行动》日活跃用户已超过2000万，超越《和平精英》成为腾讯第二大国内游戏。《无畏契约》手游版将于8月19日上线，预计年化收入70亿元人民币。\n阿里面临更大挑战，预计一季度收入仅增长3%（因剥离大润发和银泰），调整后EBITA下滑16%。不过，客户管理收入预计保持11%的健康增长，云业务利润率有望环比改善至9%。\n美团二季度收入增长16%，但调整后EBIT预计大跌58%。尽管核心本地生活商务收入保持13%增长，但外卖竞争加剧导致利润大幅下滑。\n京东预计收入增长16%，显著跑赢零售行业整体表现，但调整后EBIT预计下滑70%。京东零售业务利润增长15%，但新业务亏损超过100亿元人民币。\n拼多多面临独特挑战，预计二季度收入增长11%，但调整后EBIT下滑38%。其美国全托管业务在5-6月暂停，7月后逐步恢复，对业绩造成了一定影响。\n滴滴则在稳定的市场环境中保持增长，预计二季度收入增长8%，调整后EBITA增长32%，体现出网约车业务的经营杠杆效应。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2557455133","isCrawlerRequest":true}