中信证券研报称展望后市：1）短期来看市场对于美联储12月的降息预期已充分定价同时国内政策对经济的提振效果仍有待显现央行的稳汇率政策更多在于防止单边一致性预期预计年内人民币有望偏强运行汇率中枢或难突破7.0。但考虑到年底结汇的季节性效应不排除阶段性突破7.0的概率；2）进入2026年我们预计美元指数偏弱运行的趋势或延续同时央行稳汇率政策张弛有度增强人民币汇率韧性。在此背景下我们预计人民币汇率有望温和升值。若国内政策协同发力并带动经济内生动能逐步修复则内外部因素有望形成较大的合力进而对人民币汇率中枢破7形成催化。
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