AI Pushes Magnificent 7 Into A 'War Of The Seven Kings,' Ed Yardeni Warns

Benzinga_recent_news12-15 23:45

For most of the past decade, the Magnificent Seven ruled technology like independent empires. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) dominated search, Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT) controlled enterprise software...

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(NASDAQ:GOOGL) dominated search, Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT) controlled enterprise software, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMNZ) led online retail and cloud infrastructure, Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) owned digital advertising, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) commanded smartphones, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reshaped electric vehicles, and Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) supplied the chips that powered the entire ecosystem.\nEach kingdom had deep moats. Competition existed, but rarely threatened the core franchise. \nMargins were high, capital spending was manageable, and companies could return billions to shareholders while steadily expanding their reach.\nThat long summer is over.\n“The arrival of generative AI is plunging the tech sector into the War of the Seven Kings,” veteran Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni said on Monday. \nAccording Yardeni, generative AI has blurred the lines that once separated these companies. \n“These monopolies now are threatened by their fierce competition in the AI race,” Yardeni said in his latest note to clients. \nWhat were once fortress monopolies in search, software, advertising, retail, devices, and chips are now under direct threat, often from one another. \nEach firm is scrambling to build or deploy state-of-the-art large language models and AI chips, knowing that falling behind could mean losing relevance. \n\"Their new AI capabilities directly threaten one another's monopolies in one way or another,\" Yardeni said. \nDistinct domains have collapsed into a single, competitive arena where borders no longer matter and every company is exposed. \n\"It is no longer enough to rule one domain,\" Yardeni warned. \"One must rule them all or perish.\"\nThe result is rising pressure to spend more on capital and labor just to stay competitive.\nThe AI race has turned into what Yardeni describes as a classic prisoner's dilemma. Each company is forced to invest tens of billions of dollars, not only to grow, but to avoid being left behind.\nThis spending surge provides a short-term boost to \"pick-and-shovel\" suppliers like Nvidia, but it raises harder questions for the buyers. Returns on invested capital are uncertain, and the margin for error is shrinking as costs climb.\nYardeni also compares the AI race to Game of Thrones, calling Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI the first major escalation. \nThe move brought generative AI into Microsoft's products and challenged Google's long-held control of search.\n\"For the first time in 20 years, the loyalty of the Search Kingdom's subjects is being tested, as the chatinterface threatens to replace the blue link,” Yardeni added. \nAt the center of the battlefield also sits Nvidia, supplying the GPUs that every company needs to train and deploy AI models. \n\"Currently, Nvidia supplies the GPUs that every House needs to survive the winter,\" Yardeni wrote.\nThat dependence, however, has made the rest of the Magnificent Seven uneasy. Nvidia's margins function as a tax on the group, pushing Amazon, Google, and Microsoft to accelerate efforts to develop their own custom silicon to regain control of their infrastructure.\n\"This is no longer a battle for expansion,\" Yardeni said. \"It is an existential battle for sovereignty.\"\nFor investors, the takeaway from the War of the Seven Kings is clear. \nThe \"peace dividend\" of the past decade, which was characterized by strong margins, steady buybacks, and moderate capital spending, is now over.\n\"We are entering a period of heavy war spending,\" Yardeni wrote, as the Magnificent Seven burn through capital to stay in the race. While this is likely to compress profit margins, the broader economy could benefit. \nIntense competition often pushes prices lower and accelerates innovation. So while the kings of the Magnificent Seven may bleed, the broader realm could benefit.\nThe War of the Seven Kings may ultimately spread productivity gains across the wider economy, helping sustain Yardeni's \"Roaring 2020s\" even as the tech giants battle for control of the throne.\nRead Next:\nPhoto: Shutterstock","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2591285396","isCrawlerRequest":true}