Incyte weak 2026 revenue forecast heightens Jakafi patent concerns

Feb 10 (Reuters) - Incyte INCY.O forecast annual sales below Wall Street estimates on Tuesday with its key growth driver Opzelura expected to underperform, raising concerns about the drugmaker's ability to offset looming patent losses on top-seller Jakafi.

Shares of the Wilmington, Delaware-based company fell over 4% in premarket trading.

Incyte expects 2026 revenue between $4.77 billion and $4.94 billion, well below analysts' average estimate of $5.52 billion, according to LSEG data.

The weak forecast underscores pressure on Opzelura, the skin disorder treatment Incyte is banking on to drive future growth as Jakafi faces patent expiration in 2028.

The company expects Opzelura to generate $750 million to $790 million in 2026 revenue, below the $801.5 million analysts estimate.

The cautious forecast comes despite strong fourth-quarter performance, with Opzelura sales jumping 28% to $207.3 million, beating estimates of $195.6 million.

BMO analyst Evan Seigerman said the "softer guide for Opzelura leaves work to be done in 2026," as investors watch whether growth products can fill the gap after Jakafi's patent expiration.

Opzelura is used for vitiligo and atopic dermatitis in patients aged 12 and older. The company expects a regulatory decision in the second half of this year for an anticipated ex-U.S. launch in moderate atopic dermatitis in late 2026.

Jakafi, Incyte's flagship treatment for blood cancers including myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera, remains the company's top seller. Incyte expects 2026 Jakafi sales of $3.22 billion to $3.27 billion, above the $3.09 billion analyst estimate.

Fourth-quarter Jakafi sales rose 7% to $828.2 million, topping estimates.

On an adjusted basis, Incyte earned $1.80 per share for the quarter ended December 31, below the analysts' estimate of $1.93.

Total revenue came in at $1.51 billion, exceeding estimates of $1.35 billion, boosted by $100 million in milestone payments.

(Reporting by Kamal Choudhury in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)

((Kamal.Choudhury@thomsonreuters.com;))