Kaspi.kz (NasdaqGS:KSPI) Valuation Check After Recent Shift In Share Price Performance

Simply Wall St.02-10

AdvertisementKaspi.kz context and recent share performance Kaspi.kz (KSPI) has been drawing investor attention after recent trading, with the stock last closing at US$76.36 and showing mixed returns ...

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See our latest analysis for Kaspi.kz. That recent 3.48% 1 day share price gain comes after a softer patch, with a 30 day share price return of 6.7% decline and a 1 year total shareholder return of 21.15% decline. This suggests momentum has cooled after earlier multi year gains. If Kaspi.kz’s swing in sentiment has you thinking about where else growth and risk might be shifting, it could be a good moment to look at 22 top founder-led companies. With Kaspi.kz now trading at US$76.36 and showing an intrinsic discount of 62% alongside a roughly 41% gap to the average analyst target, you have to ask: is this a mispriced opportunity, or is the market already baking in all the future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 29% Undervalued With Kaspi.kz last trading at $76.36 against a narrative fair value of about $107.59, the current price sits well below what the most followed storyline implies.  The rollout and success of higher-yield deposit products are accelerating customer acquisition and bringing new funds onto the platform, positioning Kaspi.kz to benefit from greater transaction flow and, once interest rates decline, a significant rebound in fintech margins and earnings.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how a single super app thesis, projected revenue expansion and a lower future P/E come together to support that gap? The full narrative lays out the numbers and the tension between growth, margins and valuation in black and white. Here, analysts are effectively saying that if Kaspi.kz hits their revenue and earnings path while trading on a future P/E below the sector, today’s discount may not last. The entire framework relies on a discount rate just under 10% and assumes the business keeps scaling its payments, marketplace and fintech ecosystem without needing a richer multiple than many peers already enjoy. Result: Fair Value of $107.59 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this story can change quickly if regulatory decisions disrupt key verticals again or if competition forces Kaspi.kz to accept lower take rates and weaker margins. Find out about the key risks to this Kaspi.kz narrative.  Build Your Own Kaspi.kz Narrative If you are not fully on board with this storyline or simply prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh, data backed view in just a few minutes. Start with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Kaspi.kz research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Kaspi.kz has sparked new questions for you, do not stop here. Use this moment to scan for other opportunities that fit your style before they move.  Focus on potential value by checking out 52 high quality undervalued stocks that line up strong fundamentals with attractive pricing signals. Prioritise resilience by reviewing 83 resilient stocks with low risk scores that our models rank with relatively lower overall risk profiles. Spot early opportunities by scanning our screener containing 24 high quality undiscovered gems that have solid fundamentals but limited current attention.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Kaspi.kz might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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