A Winter for Stablecoins Would Signal Crypto Deep Freeze

Dow Jones19:09

Bitcoin's price drop has certainly put a chill on the market for crypto companies. But as the digital-asset realm evolves, the real deep freeze would be if there were an extended drop in the value of stablecoins in circulation.

Stablecoins aren't designed for speculation. Their price is meant to be fixed to a fiat currency, typically the U.S. dollar. That shouldn't rise or fall with demand or sentiment.

But stablecoins can be created or redeemed, depending on how much demand there is to hold them. If they are overall shrinking, that could be a sign investors are souring on not only bitcoin but perhaps also the broader digital-asset ecosystem.

The total market value of the seven largest U.S. dollar stablecoins currently tracked by CoinGecko has declined almost 2% from its peak in December. That isn't a huge drop. But it follows a steady surge in stablecoin value over the past year, helped by passage of the Genius Act, which is aimed at regulating these coins in the U.S.

And it is just one more reason why market pressure is building across digital-asset companies.

At Coinbase Global, bitcoin is responsible for the largest share of transaction revenue of any particular token or coin. Coinbase also holds bitcoin in its own investment portfolio. The price of bitcoin is down about 25% this year.

Yet Coinbase shares are down almost 40% so far in 2026. Coinbase has made stablecoins a key cog in its business, in part to help make its revenue less correlated to crypto-price volatility. Through an arrangement with Circle Internet Group, issuer of the stablecoin known as USDC, Coinbase gets revenue from USDC held on its own platform, as well as from off-platform USDC. That revenue hit an all-time high in 2025, which Coinbase reported Thursday.

Concern about the broader cryptoverse of players in crypto and blockchain technology seems evident in the market right now. Shares of Bullish, Circle, Robinhood Markets and Figure Technology Solutions are also down by double-digit percentages this year.

Stablecoins have become like the common coin of this digital realm. When traders sell cryptocurrencies, they often receive stablecoins in return. Stablecoins can be held in digital wallets, ready to be put to work in the next trade.

Beyond coins and tokens, players are increasingly introducing lots of other tokenized assets to buy with this digital money. That includes versions of staid money-market funds managed by the likes of BlackRock or Franklin Templeton. Coinbase is aiming to add more asset classes, like stocks and prediction contracts, as well as tools to tokenize assets, as part of its "Everything Exchange" strategy.

On some platforms, including Coinbase, customers holding USDC can earn rewards in the form of an annual percentage of more coins. These rewards are a big enough potential draw for stablecoins that the move of banks to lobby against them -- arguing they are a threat to deposits -- has helped delay legislation regarding crypto-market structure.

But when people are selling cryptocurrency or other digital assets, and then taking their money out of the digital-money ecosystem entirely, they can redeem their stablecoins for regular old bank-account money.

There are some encouraging signs that a deep winter for bitcoin won't necessarily ice over the rest of the digital ecosystem. Bitcoin's price began tumbling in October, but stablecoins' market value didn't peak until later in the year.

Investors might start to turn crypto's decline into an opportunity. Robinhood told analysts this week that so far, February average daily trading volumes were up across all categories versus January levels. Coinbase said its retail customers were "buying the dip," with the platform recently seeing net buying versus selling of crypto.

Dan Dolev, analyst at Mizuho, has suggested that there might be a broadening set of applications for stablecoins, such as through the prediction market Polymarket, where a form of USDC has been used as collateral. Circle is now partnering with Polymarket. "More applications for stablecoins could create a tailwind offsetting the bitcoin headwind, " Dolev said.

If the crypto universe is like a shopping mall, then bitcoin has long been the anchor store that draws the most foot traffic. The mall can survive if people want to start shopping at a different store -- so long as they don't just decide to stay home instead.

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Comments

  • Guavaxf3006
    20:27
    Guavaxf3006
    A very well researched and written article. One thing that stands out here is the author pointed out to one thing which should be obvious, but widely ignored and disregarded. That is the correlation and cross-dependance between many players and invested oragonisation.  This reminds me very much of what happened diring the Asian currency crisis, which started in Thailand with a devaluation of the Thai Baht, but started a stampede in Korea and Indonesia. And Malaysia got pulled down too because opportunist like George Soros saw an opening because like may others, Malaysia was living on borrowed capital too. So with this current Cryptocurrency freeze, look at who is exposed with leveraging and cross-dependency too. That's where you ca make big bucks playing against. Be the new George Sor
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