Tomahawk Economics: Missile Strikes Ignite Defense ETF Rally

Benzinga_recent_news03-03

Defense-themed ETFs traded higher on Monday after strikes in Iran by the United States and Israel identified a new potential driver for the aerospace and defense space: replenishing missiles. Over 100...

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Replenishment cycles and a $1.5 tn defense budget could fuel a longer-term rally.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0006061336.USD":"Blackrock US Small and MidCap Opportunities A2 USD","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LHX":"L3Harris Technologies Inc","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0314106906.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0072461881.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A2\" ACC","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4187":"航天航空与国防"},"translate_title":"战斧经济学：导弹袭击点燃国防ETF反弹","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FDN":1.5,"LHX":1},"content_text":"Defense-themed ETFs traded higher on Monday after strikes in Iran by the United States and Israel identified a new potential driver for the aerospace and defense space: replenishing missiles.\nOver 100 Tomahawk missiles were reportedly used in the first phase of the operation. When the total inventory is around 4,000, this kind of usage rate indicates future replenishment orders that could keep contractors busy, says Tony Bancroft, portfolio manager for the Gabelli Commercial Aerospace and Defense ETF (NYSE:GCAD). \n\"It's notable that more than 100 Tomahawk missiles were reportedly launched on the first night alone. With roughly 4,000 in the U.S. arsenal, that level of usage underscores the likelihood of increased replenishment, production, and defense spending going forward. We're already seeing that reflected in the market, with defense stocks trading higher this morning,\" noted Bancroft.\nShares in major contractors were rising after the strikes.\nThe replenishment story sits atop an already massive fiscal base. \"The U.S. defense budget is approximately $1.5 trillion — an extraordinarily large figure. Even a fraction of that amount would still exceed most current projections for fiscal year 2027,” says Bancroft.\nHowever, the international market also adds to the overall picture. If NATO allies, excluding the U.S., were to meet a 3.5% of GDP procurement target, then the overall expenditure on defense would be around $400 billion annually, according to Bancroft.\n“Importantly, our allies have materially increased their defense budgets over the past several years, and we expect that upward trend to continue,\" he says.\nMost importantly for the U.S.-listed ETFs, much of the expenditure is going back into the coffers of U.S. companies.\n\"The United States remains the dominant force in global defense,” Bancroft said, citing the expansive industrial base of the country. Europe and other allied nations suffer from capacity constraints. As a result, the U.S. is expected to be the main driver of defense spending for the next few years at least.\nCompanies such as L3Harris Technologies Inc (NYSE:LHX) have already increased the international outlook for the next year.\nWhile short-term geopolitical premiums can reverse themselves quickly, replenishment contracts and structural budget increases tend to have much longer lead times.\nFor ETF investors, the question is whether this week’s rally represents a short-term response or the early stages of a deeper defense-spending cycle.\nPhoto: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2616324949","isCrawlerRequest":true}