MW The same Polymarket trader who predicted the start of the Iran war is now betting on a cease-fire by next week
By Gordon Gottsegen
Large Polymarket bets have some people wondering about insider trading
Traders have been using Polymarket to bet on the beginning and end of the Iran war.
On Monday morning, President DonaldTrump posted on Truth Social saying the U.S. and Iran had "very good and productive conversations" about resolving the war in the Middle East.
However, before Trump revealed this information publicly, a few accounts on the prediction-market platform Polymarket were making big bets that the war would end as soon as this week.
A group of 10 recently opened accounts had bet thousands of dollars on Polymarket's "US x Iran cease-fire" market, betting that a cease-fire would happen by March 31 or April 15. Together, these accounts had bet around $160,000 on the cease-fire, and stand to gain over $1 million if it comes by the end of the month.
The accounts were identified by Lirrato on X on Sunday, and recirculated by PolymarketHistory. After Trump's post on Monday, the prediction-market positions from those 10 accounts had increased by more than $300,000 in unrealized gains.
One of the 10 accounts identified, which trades under the handle "NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS," also raised some eyebrows. The account was opened in late February, and its first two trades were a $7,600 bet on the U.S. striking Iran by Feb. 28 and a $11,283 bet on a strike by March 1. The account won over $85,000 on those two bets.
Now, that same account is betting $8,005 on a U.S.-Iran cease-fire by March 31, and an additional $15,614 on a cease-fire by April 15. Those two bets have already gained over $30,000 in value.
The size, timing and track record of these bets have some people wondering whether the Polymarket accounts belong to insiders - people with political connections to the U.S. or Iran who know something about the current state of diplomacy that the public has yet to learn about.
Prediction-market companies have been shrouded in scandal due to insider trading. A recent example happened when a Polymarket trader made over $400,000 by betting that the U.S. would carry out a military operation in Venezuela. Just a few days after the initial bet, the U.S. announced the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.
Competing prediction-market platform Kalshi recently banned two traders on its platform for insider trading. It was the first time the company had publicly revealed investigations into insider trading on its platform.
On Monday, Polymarket announced that it had updated its rules on insider trading. The new rules explicitly prohibit trading on stolen confidential information, trading on illegal tips, and trading when the Polymarket user has the ability to influence the outcome of the event.
"Markets thrive on clarity," Neal Kumar, the chief legal officer of Polymarket, said in a statement. "These rule enhancements make our expectations abundantly clear for every participant across both platforms and highlight the compliance infrastructure we have already built."
The new rule changes may hint that Polymarket could follow the steps of Kalshi and announce investigations into insider trading. Although it is unclear whether the accounts betting on the Iran cease-fire are insiders, an investigation by Polymarket could dig up the truth.
-Gordon Gottsegen
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 12:38 ET (16:38 GMT)
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