0125 GMT - Telstra's mobile price rises suggest that the consensus forecasts for fiscal 2027 could be too low, Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel reckons. The prepaid and postpaid price rises he has seen flagged on Telstra's website are higher than the average analyst forecast. Samuel estimates that this could lead to the fiscal 2027 consensus forecast for Ebitda rising by 0.7%, and for net profit rising by 2%-3%. This assumes there is no change in subscriber numbers or an increase in customers trading down to lower-value plans, he adds. Jefferies has a hold rating and A$5.40 target price on the stock, which is up 0.1% at A$5.305. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2359 GMT - Surging prices of liquefied natural gas are strengthening cash flow for Woodside Energy and Santos and enabling them to cut debt faster, says UBS. Woodside and Santos are exposed to LNG spot pricing. UBS raises its 2026 forecast for the Japan Korea Marker, a benchmark LNG price in Asia, to US$23.60 per million British thermal units. Previously, it expected a price of US$13.00 per million British thermal units. UBS upgrades its 2026-2027 EPS forecasts for Woodside by 81% and 61%, respectively. For Santos, its 2026-2027 EPS forecasts rise by 71% and 44%. "Our base case assumes a further 2-3 weeks of disruption (until early April) and that flows via the Strait of Hormuz remain severely reduced and that critical energy infrastructure damage will sustain risk premiums for longer," UBS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2337 GMT -- Commonwealth Bank looks like the Australian bank with the most to gain from AI adoption, according to Macquarie analysts. They think that the lender will initially leverage improved productivity to drive revenue and accelerate change. Taking a narrower view, they reckon that Westpac is the best-placed lender in terms of near-term cost cuts. They tell clients in a note that this is because of its greater reliance on outsourced workforce providers. Overall, they anticipate material AI cost savings across Australia's banking sector, with global peers flagging workforce reductions of about 10% over the next five years. They caution that this could coincide with increased bad debt charges as AI drives job losses. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2337 GMT - Aussie Broadband gets a new bull at Macquarie, where analysts flag the stock as a defensive play amid rising inflation and interest-rate hikes. Raising its recommendation to outperform from neutral on the stock's recent weakness, the investment bank publishes a note highlighting what its analysts call the challenger telco's compelling value proposition. They point out that Aussie Broadband appears to have been unaffected by incumbent Telstra's November price cuts. The stock appears to be undervalued given the company's growth outlook, but Superloop remains their preferred pick due to the superior quality of its earnings growth outlook. Macquarie keeps a A$5.30 target price on Aussie Broadband shares, which are up 2.5% at A$4.88. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2258 GMT -- Softening hiring activity doesn't look great for Australian job advertiser Seek, Macquarie analysts warn. They tell clients in a note that they see downside risks to consensus forecasts from declining job ad volumes, pointing out that their EPS estimates for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 are already lower by 4% and 8%, respectively. February's Australian job ad volumes are down by 3% on-year, and the Macquarie analysts think trends may worsen on global uncertainty, AI-related headwinds and interest-rate hikes. Macquarie has a neutral rating and A$18.50 target price on the stock, which is at A$14.67 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2240 GMT -- In Australia's mining sector, some companies are more exposed to higher diesel prices and fuel-supply risks than others. Bell Potter says a small cohort may also benefit from the energy squeeze, citing those with access to renewable-power supply or those that produce their own energy. "The current energy crisis may also speed the energy transition to lower-carbon electrification, favoring battery minerals and uranium," Bell Potter says. "Underground and in-situ leach mining operations are also less exposed to diesel supply risks." One example is Boss Energy, which draws power for its Honeymoon uranium project directly from the grid. Bell Potter also names Liontown Resources, Nickel Industries and Vulcan Energy Resources as relatively sheltered from fuel supply and price shocks. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2231 GMT -- In healthcare, drug wholesalers and pathology specialists are most exposed to higher fuel prices stoked by the conflict in the Middle East. That's the view of Ord Minnett, which trims price targets on several stocks in Australia's healthcare sector, including Ebos, Paragon Care and Australian Clinical Labs. "We note that these businesses have freight and logistics operations (e.g. medicine supply, sample transportation) and a limited ability to pass on input costs near-term," analyst Tom Godfrey says. "As an example, Ebos is run-rating A$182 million of freight costs in FY26 (1% of revenue, 16% of opex)." Its price target on Ebos falls 3.3% to A$29.00/share. Ord Minnett cuts price targets on Paragon Care and Australian Clinical Labs by 5.7% and 8.3% to A$0.33/share and A$2.20/share, respectively. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2219 GMT -- Collins Foods loses its bull at Citi on worries that rising interest rates and higher fuel prices will hit Australian fast-food operators. Lowering his recommendation to neutral from buy, analyst Sam Teeger reminds clients that many observers had incorrectly expected quick-service restaurants to benefit from consumers seeking out cheaper options during Australia's last interest-rate hiking cycle. "We see no reason why this would change this time around," he writes in a note. Target price falls 19% to A$10.45, with Citi applying a 25% earnings discount on sector-wide risks. Shares are at A$9.48 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2208 GMT - Forsyth Barr thinks Ebos needs to reset its gearing targets as part of its investor day on April 30. Ebos has historically targeted leverage of less than 2.3x net debt to Ebitda. Analyst Matt Montgomerie highlights Ebos's growing lease obligations, which aren't covered by that goal. So, the leverage target likely understates its gearing. "We think Ebos needs to provide a clear target with leases included in net debt," says Forsyth Barr. "We think our FY26 forecast of 2.7x is on the high side of investor comfort levels and provides limited headroom for M&A." Forsyth Barr has an outperform call and NZ$35.80/share price target on Ebos, which is up 1.7% at NZ$22.28 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2203 GMT - Jefferies doesn't share EML Payments's confidence in achieving its FY 2028 financial targets. EML Payments recently reaffirmed goals that include a 35% underlying Ebitda margin, EPS of A$0.13, and a cost-to-income ratio of less than 40%. "We are cautious on these targets, given EML remains modestly behind in FY26, and there is still a risky implementation required in migrating customers to the new tech platform, which may not be completed by FY28," analyst Roger Samuel says. Its price target falls 22% to A$0.78/share. Still, Jefferies retains a buy call on the stock. EML Payments ended Monday at A$0.59. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2157 GMT - Packaging company Amcor's margins are likely to be squeezed by attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure that have disrupted raw-materials supply, Jefferies says. It highlights a 15%-30% rise in resin prices compared to levels before the conflict began. Resins account for around half of Amcor's raw-materials costs, or US$6 billion. Jefferies doesn't expect a sustained drag on margins, but cuts its adjusted EPS forecast by 1% to the bottom of Amcor's guidance range of US$4.00-US$4.15/share. It also projects Amcor's free cash flow at US$1.75 billion, missing company expectations. Jefferies's price target falls by 9.6% to A$75.27/share. Amcor ended Monday at A$55.24.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 00:02 ET (04:02 GMT)
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