The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2157 ET - Momentum across Japan's private sector cooled in March, tempering a solid start to 2026 as the war in the Middle East creates uncertainty, S&P Global flash PMI data show. New orders and employment weakened, and firms' confidence in the year ahead slipped to the lowest in nearly a year. That coincides with the start of the war, which contributed to a sharp rise in input costs amid reports of supply chain difficulties and higher fuel prices, says Annabel Fiddes at S&P Global Market Intelligence. A weak yen exchange rate and rising labor costs added to the expenses, further squeezing company margins. Firms are less confident about output due to the war, with services companies notably more downbeat than manufacturers, who hope demand across industries like AI and defense will sustain growth. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
2132 ET - Japan's consumer inflation slowed more than expected in February, but the relief is unlikely to last, says Stefan Angrick at Moody's Analytics. Government support was a key factor in the print, cooling energy prices. Inflation slowed across most categories too, signaling that cost-push forces have eased, but the Middle East conflict poses significant risk. Surging oil and gas prices could drive a jump in energy from March, and renewed yen depreciation is an added concern. Uncertainty will keep the BOJ on hold for now, as will wage growth trends, Angrick says. Annual wage negotiations signaled steady gains but recent experience shows that these no longer translate into broad-based wage growth. Angrick still expects a rate hike in June or July, but sharp inflation or yen moves could pull that forward. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
2106 ET - Japan's inflationary pressures are more entrenched than February's headline result suggests, says Capital Economics' Abhijit Surya. CE thinks the BOJ's preferred measure of core inflation will remain above target for the foreseeable future, cementing the case for policy tightening. Generous electricity and gas subsidies drove the cooling in headline inflation. Those subsidies lapse in April, but the government could extend them, Surya says. It is already cushioning consumers from the global energy surge by capping prices of refined petroleum products. Combined with the abolition of the gas tax surcharge, that should keep a lid on energy inflation. CE is also confident that services inflation will gain traction, as wage momentum seems increasingly structural. If so, the BOJ will hold faith in the virtuous wage-price cycle and can hike next month. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
2018 ET - Japanese stocks are broadly higher thanks to growing hopes for U.S. talks to end the war in Iran. Metals and chip-related stocks are leading the gains. JX Advanced Metals is up 7.6% and Renesas Electronics is 6.2% higher. The dollar is at 158.64 yen, compared with Y159.58 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 1.9% at 52510.04. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
2007 ET - JGB futures rise in the morning Tokyo session, aided by easing inflation concerns. One driver was likely the overnight slide in oil prices after President Trump said the U.S. will postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. Another driver was probably Japanese data released earlier that showed Japan's consumer prices rose at a slower pace in February. Focus could shift to the Finance Ministry's auction today of about 400 billion yen of 40-year JGBs. "Factoring in the auction being the very last super-long auction of FY25, we expect it to clear smoothly," says Miki Den, senior Japan rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities, in a research report. The benchmark 10-year JGB futures are 0.30 yen higher at 131.09 yen. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2003 ET - Apollo Global Management on Monday joined a growing list of business development company overseers that have recently capped investor withdrawals, limiting redemptions to 5% of Apollo Debt Solutions BDC's shares outstanding after receiving requests equivalent to over 11%. The New York firm cited its commitment to manage its net assets of $15.1 billion in the best interests of all investors and the BDC's "designated liquidity objectives," in a securities filing. It intends to honor each withdrawal request on a pro-rated basis, which will mean each investor would get nearly half of what was sought this quarter. Apollo set the 5% limit to reflect the average life of the BDC's underlying assets and the anticipated time span of investor commitments. At the end of last month, the BDC held assets of about $25 billion based on fair market value, according to a separate filing. (ted.bunker@wsj.com)
1950 ET - Japanese stocks may rise thanks to growing hopes for U.S. talks to end the war in Iran. Nikkei futures are up 4.2% at 52995 on the SGX. The dollar is at 158.37 yen, compared with Y159.58 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 3.5% to 51515.49 on Monday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1844 ET [Dow Jones]-- Apollo Debt Solutions expects to see more performance dispersion among business development companies over the coming quarters, it says in a letter to shareholders. ADS, which is managed by Apollo Global Management, says the structure of non-traded BDCs is meant to provide individual investors with access to senior secured lending, what it calls one of the most compelling segments of the private credit market. "But structure alone does not determine outcomes," ADS says. "Long-term performance is the result of underwriting rigor, disciplined portfolio construction and careful balance sheet management. After all, private credit is still just credit." ADS says it is well-positioned for the current market volatility given its focus on high-quality, large-cap corporate borrowers on a first lien senior secured basis. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1823 ET - 1822 - Apollo Debt Solutions BDC addressed recent concerns rocking the private credit market, arguing its fund is well-positioned for this year's heightened market volatility and increased scrutiny on the asset class. "None of this is new to us at Apollo," ADS says in a letter to shareholders, noting that liquidity management, mark-to-market accounting and a recognition of sudden secular shifts are hallmarks of sound risk management, and key to how it manages capital. ADS says its focus on first-lien senior secured lending, downside protection and large-cap corporate borrowers positions it well. "We have made a series of decisions as to how we manage ADS that have put us in a place today to drive future performance as a result of - not despite - the current cycle." (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1808 ET - Forsyth Barr thinks Ebos needs to reset its gearing targets as part of its investor day on April 30. Ebos has historically targeted leverage of less than 2.3x net debt to Ebitda. Analyst Matt Montgomerie highlights Ebos's growing lease obligations, which aren't covered by that goal. So, the leverage target likely understates its gearing. "We think Ebos needs to provide a clear target with leases included in net debt," says Forsyth Barr. "We think our FY26 forecast of 2.7x is on the high side of investor comfort levels and provides limited headroom for M&A." Forsyth Barr has an outperform call and NZ$35.80/share price target on Ebos, which is up 1.7% at NZ$22.28 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1741 ET - RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has struck a reassuring tone in a speech about the potential impacts on the New Zealand economy of the Middle East oil shock. It's early days, and "wait and see" was very much the tone, says Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ. Market pricing has moved dramatically in recent times to price three RBNZ hikes this year. Breman said that monetary policy would only have to respond with higher interest rates than otherwise if medium-term inflation or inflation expectations threaten to move away from the 2% midpoint, Zollner adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1738 ET - Rapid developments in Iran have whipsawed expectations for how the Fed will set interest rates over the rest of the year. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says that amid the elevated economic uncertainty, the central bank shouldn't provide a false sense of assurance around its likely next moves. "There is no single most-likely path," Daly writes in a social-media post. "Offering too much forward guidance in an uncertain world risks conveying a false sense of certainty, reducing rather than improving transparency, and making it harder for the public to clearly predict how the FOMC will react." (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 21:57 ET (01:57 GMT)
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