The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0806 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally following a recovery in U.S. and Asian stocks overnight after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Trump said Monday the attacks would be halted for five days after constructive talks, allowing risk sentiment to rebound and boosting cryptocurrencies. However, Iran denied that such negotiations were held, keeping uncertainty elevated and limiting gains in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin edges up 0.5% to $71,267, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0750 GMT - The dollar rises along with oil prices as optimism over an easing of the Middle East conflict fades. President Trump said Monday that the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following constructive talks but Iran said no such talks took place. Trump's comments caused the dollar to fall as oil prices dropped and risk sentiment recovered but the moves proved short-lived given Iran's failure to confirm progress toward ending the conflict. The dollar is negatively correlated to risk sentiment as a safe haven and positively correlated to oil prices as the U.S. is a net exporter of the commodity. The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.231. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - Incoming Bank of Korea governor Shin Hyun-song could mean a more hawkish bias for the central bank, BofA economist Benson Wu says. "We expect the incoming governor to adopt a more cautious policy stance," Wu says, noting Shin's "expertise in global liquidity, financial stability and systemic risk-skills" amid rising volatility linked to geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. While the new appointment may not lead to an immediate increase in rates in 2Q, BofA points to the May policy meeting's dot plot and speech as key to future policy trajectory. (jihye.lee@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - External demand is expected to support Malaysia's economic growth in 1Q, backed by a solid trade surplus and sustained export momentum from late 2025, says TA Securities analyst Farid Burhanuddin in a note. A surplus comparable to 4Q 2025 appears achievable, requiring less than 10 billion ringgit in additional surplus over the rest of the quarter, he says. However, risks remain. Weakness in intermediate goods exports and a stronger ringgit could weigh on near-term export momentum, he reckons. TA Securities maintains its 2026 export growth forecast at 4.6%, with imports rising 6.2%, keeping the trade surplus at around 135 billion ringgit. TA Securities is also watching for ringgit appreciation, persistent weakness in intermediate goods, escalating U.S. trade tensions and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0714 GMT - President Trump's claim of "very good and productive" negotiations with Iran signals his attempt at de-escalation, according to Pepperstone's Michael Brown. After Trump said Washington and Tehran held conversations, Iran denied them, but "whether or not talks have taken place is somewhat immaterial," the research strategist says in a note. The move signals that Trump has reversed the ultimatum issued over the weekend and seems to be pursuing de-escalation for the first time since the conflict began. "We might finally be seeing a faint chink of light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to the ongoing Middle East conflict." (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0659 GMT - Bond markets remain driven by the Middle East newsflow, but the underlying dynamics have changed over the last couple of days, Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. "As bond markets remain at the mercy of erratic White House headlines, the underlying dynamics appear to be shifting," the head of rates and credit research says. "The focus may shift from fighting inflation to its side effects," he says. In the eurozone, flash estimate purchasing managers indices will be data to watch, "where the question seems to be just how much they will decline," Rieger says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0654 GMT - The Netherlands and Germany line up for government bond auctions in the eurozone Tuesday, with the former tapping the ultra-long end of the curve and the latter a shorter-dated debt. The Netherlands will auction 1.5 billion euros to 2 billion euros in the January 2056 DSL, while Germany will offer 5 billion euros in the April 2031-dated federal note, or Bobl. The auctions come as global bond markets remain jittery, driven by news around the war in the Middle East. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0647 GMT - It's too early to get too optimistic about 'peace deals' in the Middle East getting baked in the next couple of days as demands of both sides still seem unbridgeable, Macquarie's Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry say in a note. "It's far-fetched to imagine the U.S. dropping its demands pertaining to Iran's nuclear assets, or that the U.S. would just leave its bases in the Gulf," the global strategists say. It is also far-fetched to see Iran dropping support for its proxy armies at this stage, they say. That said, "the war is unlikely to last beyond mid-April because Iran's threats are likely to be neutralized by then." But once neutralized, the U.S. will have the upper hand in any negotiations that ensue, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0642 GMT - Flash estimate purchasing managers data for March from several key economies, including France, Germany, the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S., are likely to reflect some impact of the Middle East conflict, SEB's Pia Fromlet says in a note. "The measurement period will probably include the time after the outbreak of war in the Middle East," the euro area economist says. Although it is still early, sentiment may have been negatively affected, she says. SEB will be keeping an eye on various price indexes and indexes that measure delivery times, she says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0639 GMT - The potential for Bank Indonesia to resume cutting rates depends on how the rupiah performs, Barclays economists write in a note. There was already significant uncertainty around the timing of when BI would further cut rates before the Middle East conflict broke out. The rupiah has been pressured since earlier this year, partly due to fiscal concerns. Global investors may focus on how much additional subsidy spending the government incurs to keep a lid on rising energy prices. The BI would likely be confident in cutting again if the rupiah strengthens or remain stable against the dollar. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0635 GMT - The risk in European rates runs in both directions and that asymmetry deserves to be in the price, Neuberger Berman's Ashok Bhatia says in a note. "The rise in government [bond] yields globally, while driven by the repricing of central bank expectations, is also likely being impacted by central banks and institutions needing to raise cash given rising oil prices," the CIO and global head of fixed income says. U.S. Treasurys, even without their traditional safe-haven bid, reflect a central bank with a clearer easing path than its European peers, Bhatia says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0625 GMT - The Philippines central bank could hike rates twice this year instead of cutting rates, Barclays economists write in a note. Policymakers would be concerned over economic challenges, which existed before the Middle East conflict broke out. However, the BSP may ease rates if the conflict de-escalates in the near term. Barclays's base case now is for the BSP to deliver one 25bp rate hike each in April and June. This is projected to be followed by three 25bp rate cuts in 2027 if global crude oil prices moderate. Barclays had previously expected the BSP to cut rates by 25 bps each in April and June 2026. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 04:06 ET (08:06 GMT)
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