EMEA Morning Briefing: Conflicting Signals on U.S.-Iran Talks Keep Markets on Edge

Dow Jones03-24

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Flash PMIs for eurozone, U.K., France, Germany; trading update for Kingfisher

Opening Call:

European stock futures were lower after Asia stocks rose. U.S. Treasurys edged higher, the dollar strengthened. Gold fell and oil rose.

Equities:

European stock futures fell as Asian equity markets rebounded, an abrupt U-turn from the prior day after President Trump said the U.S. military would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days.

In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump said the U.S. and Iran had "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East."

Trump later said Iran wants to "settle" the war. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry denied Tehran was in talks with the U.S., according to state media, though he said countries in the region were trying to get diplomacy going.

"Despite the lack of a consistent narrative [between the U.S. and Iran], markets have taken the good news at face value," National Australia Bank's Sally Auld said in commentary.

"News that other countries were attempting to de-escalate the war was also well received," the group chief economist added.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar strengthened and the U.K pound weakened, with sterling looking vulnerable to falls in the event of a rout in U.K. government bonds, said Rabobank's Jane Foley in a note.

The U.K.'s large government debt and current account deficit suggest the gilt market is more susceptible to suffering market jitters, she said.

"On top of higher inflation, calls for the government to provide financial support for the economy in the face of higher energy prices is unsettling for the gilts market," she said.

Concerns about a potential leadership challenge for U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of May local elections is another risk, she noted.

Bonds:

Treasury yields and the dollar remained under pressure as markets digested President Trump's decision to postpone strikes on Iran. Oil prices receded as a result, but are still expected to remain above pre-war levels for a while.

"The swings between escalatory and de-escalatory headlines over the past few days have dominated intraday market moves, and imply considerable uncertainty for the path ahead," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.

Energy:

Oil futures rose on a likely technical recovery after WTI and Brent crude futures fell sharply overnight.

Trump's post on Truth Social saying the U.S. military would postpone strikes on Iran will be "subject to ongoing negotiations, and a lot could still change," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com.

Metals:

Gold rose, boosted by the fall in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, both of which could make the non-interest-bearing USD-denominated precious metal more attractive.

Speaking of Trump's post on social media, Pepperstone's Michael Brown said, "This is clearly a positive development."

"The two sides are in discussions, and this is the first material sign of de-escalation that we have seen since conflict broke out at the end of February," he said.

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Copper is lower, as volatility in gold spilled over into the metals sector.

Investors are becoming more interested in buying the dips after a sharp drop recently, according to Nanhua Futures analysts.

That said, with the overall positioning remaining low, and copper prices are unlikely to surge much, they noted.

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Iron ore prices rose as both supply and demand showed signs of improvement.

Steel output has picked up alongside the resumption of production at mills, supporting near-term consumption, said Baocheng Futures analysts.

Weak profitability, however, limits the pace of further increases on iron ore prices, they said.

On the supply side, port arrivals are recovering and shipments from major miners continue to rise, while domestic production edges higher, keeping overall supply on a steady uptrend, they added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

President Backs Off Threat To Iranian Energy

President Trump said on Monday the U.S. military would postpone strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days following "productive" talks between Washington and Tehran.

In a Truth Social post written in all caps, Trump wrote that the U.S. and Iran had "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East." Trump wrote that based on those discussions, which he expected would continue this week, he had asked the Pentagon to hold off on the energy-related strikes that he had threatened "subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions."

Brent oil prices claw back losses to top $100 again after hours

Global oil prices edged higher in after-hours trading Monday to recoup a portion of the nearly 11% lost during the regular session, as traders geared up for what's likely to be another day driven by developments in the Iran conflict.

Brent for May delivery BRNK26 BRN00 traded at $103.8 a barrel in electronic trading, up from Monday's settlement at $99.94.

EU and Australia Sign Free-Trade Agreement, Security Deal

SYDNEY-The European Union and Australia agreed to a free-trade deal and security partnership, the latest move by U.S. allies to rethink their economic and military relationships at a time of rapidly growing geopolitical uncertainty.

The free-trade agreement, which took years to come to fruition, removes over 99% of tariffs on EU goods exports into Australia. For Australia, European demand for critical minerals and a boost in European investment will help to lift the Australian economy.

How Nvidia Keeps Its Iron Grip on the AI Boom

Inside the gilded reception hall across San Francisco's War Memorial Opera House, some of Silicon Valley's top executives and investors in late November gathered to toast the man of the hour.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia's globe-trotting CEO, had just donated $5 million to fund a production of a new opera, "The Monkey King," based on a classic Chinese heroic novel, and invited a who's-who of the AI industry to attend a performance.

Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

Expected Major Events for Tuesday

06:00/FIN: Feb PPI

06:00/FIN: Feb Labour force survey, incl unemployment

07:00/EU: Feb New Passenger Car Registrations in Europe statistics (EU27 + EFTA3)

08:00/CZE: Mar Business cycle survey (consumer/business confidence)

08:00/SWI: 4Q Balance of Payments

08:15/FRA: Mar France Flash PMI

08:30/GER: Mar Germany Flash PMI

09:00/EU: Mar Eurozone Flash PMI

09:00/POL: Feb Agricultural prices

09:00/POL: Feb Unemployment

09:00/ICE: Feb PPI

09:30/UK: Mar Flash UK PMI

11:00/UK: Mar CBI Distributive Trades Survey

13:00/HUN: Mar Hungarian interest rate decision

15:59/UKR: Feb PPI

15:59/UKR: Feb Industrial Production

16:59/LUX: 4Q Balance of Payments

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 24, 2026 00:58 ET (04:58 GMT)

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