Sterling Could Fall in Second Quarter on Fiscal Risks -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-24

1317 GMT - Sterling could weaken in the second quarter due to fiscal risks related to upcoming U.K. local elections, Barclays analysts say in a note. "Geopolitical developments have pushed U.K. politics to the background, but risks of a more expansionary fiscal policy have likely risen in the wake of the energy shock and the upcoming May local elections," they say. Accordingly, sterling's fiscal risk premium is likely to re-widen in the second quarter closer to levels seen around the November autumn budget, they say. Barclays expects the euro to rise to 0.88 pounds in the second quarter from 0.8652 currently. However, it expects the euro to fall back to 0.86 pounds by the fourth quarter if the fiscal premium gradually normalizes. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 24, 2026 09:17 ET (13:17 GMT)

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Accordingly, sterling's fiscal risk premium is likely to re-widen in the second quarter closer to levels seen around the November autumn budget, they say. Barclays expects the euro to rise to 0.88 pounds in the second quarter from 0.8652 currently. However, it expects the euro to fall back to 0.86 pounds by the fourth quarter if the fiscal premium gradually normalizes. 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Accordingly, sterling's fiscal risk premium is likely to re-widen in the second quarter closer to levels seen around the November autumn budget, they say. Barclays expects the euro to rise to 0.88 pounds in the second quarter from 0.8652 currently. However, it expects the euro to fall back to 0.86 pounds by the fourth quarter if the fiscal premium gradually normalizes. 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