The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0901 ET - At an "intense moment" of economic uncertainty, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says that the Fed may still have a path to cutting rates this year, but it should not rule out raising interest rates if the Iran war pushes up inflation and inflation expectations in the months ahead. In an interview on CNBC, Goolsbee says that the war has put a wide range of paths on the table. "We could be back to cuts for the year, if inflation behaves. I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates if it was going a different way and inflation was getting out of control." Goolsbee notes that higher gasoline prices could have an especially pernicious effect on inflation expectations, which can be self fulfilling. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @matgrossman)
0858 ET - Investors scale back their expectations of interest-rate rises by the Bank of England after President Trump said he would postpone attacks on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure. The announcement on Trump's Truth Social platform eases concerns about the risk of a prolonged energy supply shock causing elevated inflation, leading investors to reduce their expectations of BOE rate hikes. Money markets fully price in two BOE rate rises in 2026, with a risk of a third, LSEG data show. Prior to Trump's comments, markets had priced nearly four BOE rate hikes this year.(miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0857 ET - The dollar faces volatility along with other assets after President Trump announced the U.S. will postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn says in a note. Trump said the U.S. held constructive talks with Iran but Iran has denied that such discussions took place. In the near-term Trump's comments open the door for a relief rally, lifting equities and sending the dollar lower, given investors are heavily hedged for an escalation in the conflict, Hathorn says. However, the "underlying conflict remains unresolved, and until there is a credible, sustained de-escalation, markets will continue to swing aggressively between fear and relief on each new headline." The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 99.428. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0851 ET - The number of active businesses operating in Canada was relatively stable last year, though there was a decline among businesses in sectors dependent on U.S. demand. Statistics Canada data shows the number of active businesses varied little on a monthly basis in 2025, while the business opening rate ranged from 4.5% to 5.1%, and with the exception of October the rate was at or above the historical average of 4.7%. Still, from January 2024 to December 2025 the number of active businesses in sectors such as the mining, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing, fell by 2.9% compared with 0.7% in other sectors less exposed to U.S. trade. This is a gap that has widened over time and became more pronounced in 2025. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0846 ET - Global government bond yields turn lower, reversing direction after soaring earlier in the day. The reversal follows signals from U.S. President Trump on the prospect of an end the hostilities with Iran. In a Truth Social post, Trump said military strikes against Iranian power plants and infrastructure would be postponed for five days following constructive talks. The 10-year German Bund yield retreated to 2.988%, down 4 basis points on the day, having earlier traded at 3.077%, the highest since 2011, according to LSEG. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls 2.8 basis points to 4.364%, having earlier risen to 4.445%, the highest since July. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0843 ET - President Trump's indication that talks with Iran are progressing spurs demand for Treasurys, sending yields and the dollar down, but the initial reaction loses some steam. The 10-year yield is at 4.386%, down from 4.437% before Trump's social media post saying the U.S. and Iran have had "very good and productive conversations." The benchmark yield bottomed at around 4.31% following the post. The WSJ Dollar Index moves similarly and is slightly down from Friday's close. No major data point is on tap for today. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0839 ET - The Swiss franc falls to a three-and-a-half-week low against the euro after news that the U.S. will temporary postpone attacks on Iranian power plants and infrastructures reduces demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump said on his Truth Social platform that the military strikes will be postponed for five days following constructive talks. This is subject to the success of ongoing meetings and discussions, he said. The euro rises to a high of 0.9145 Swiss francs, LSEG data show. The conflict had lowered the euro to 0.8979 francs on March 9, its lowest level since the Swiss National Bank removed its peg for the two currencies in 2015. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0830 ET - The Norwegian krone falls to a three-week low against the euro as oil prices turn lower after President Trump announced the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and infrastructure. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the attacks would be postponed for five days following constructive talks. This is subject to the success of ongoing discussions. Norway is a major oil producer while the eurozone relies heavily on energy imports. The euro rises 2% to a high of 11.2860 krone, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0751 ET - South Africa's agricultural exports to the Middle East are under threat as the main harvest season nears Iran's worsening crisis, says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber. South Africa's main harvest for corn, citrus, and strawberries will get underway in a few weeks, despite the ongoing shipment interruptions in the Middle East. South Africa's agricultural exports to the region topped $1.3 billion in 2025, or nearly 10% of the country's overall agricultural exports. The country's overall agricultural exports rose 10% last year to a record $15.1 billion. "Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will now be exploring whether other markets can absorb their products," Sihlobo says. (nicholas.bariyo@wsj.com)
0749 ET - Shares in European airlines rise following President Trump's latest comments regarding the war in the Middle East. Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran have had "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution" of hostilities in the region. Trump has instructed to postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, pending the success of discussions. Wizz Air gains the most, up 4.6%, followed by International Consolidated Airlines Group--which houses Iberia and British Airways--at 4.3%. TUI and Jet2 both climb 3.1%, Air France-KLM rises 2.7%, Ryanair advances 2.3%, easyJet is up 1.9% and Deutsche Lufthansa increases 1.8%. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)
0745 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall, sharply reversing earlier moves on renewed optimism after President Trump said he would postpone attacks on Iranian power plants. Ten-year gilt yields fall as low as 4.895% following the announcement, down from a nearly 18-year high of 5.116% reached earlier Monday, Tradeweb data show. They last trade down 4 basis points at 4.943% as trade remains volatile. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0743 ET - Bitcoin rises sharply after U.S. President Trump posted on his Truth Social site that he would postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. This follows productive conversations with Iran over the last two days, which will continue, he said. Crypto currencies gain in line with improved risk appetite, as stocks rise and oil prices fall. Bitcoin is last up 4.2% at $71,050, having earlier fallen to a two-week low of $67,383, LSEG data show. Ether rises 5.3% to $2,164. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 09:01 ET (13:01 GMT)
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