China Isn't Rushing Taiwan -- It's Squeezing It Slowly -- WSJ

By Lingling Wei

For years, the West has been fixated on the "Davidson Window" -- the 2021 warning by Adm. Philip Davidson that China would move on Taiwan by 2027. But last week, the U.S. intelligence community essentially told everyone to chill. Its latest assessment suggests there is no "fixed timeline" on Xi Jinping's desk.

But don't mistake a lack of a deadline for a lack of a plan.

In his new book, "Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, " Eyck Freymann argues that Beijing isn't preparing a kinetic strike but rather pursuing a slow-motion strangulation -- what he calls a "campaign of exhaustion." It consists of constant incursions into Taiwan's airspace, cyber strikes on the island's power grids and hospitals, as well as a military presence staged so close to its coast that it feels like a new normal.

You can see the gears turning in the culture, too. In this column, I wrote about a high-profile spy drama released last year that casts unification as righteous, worth any sacrifice, and historically inevitable. And when state-owned drama troupes are approved only for war-themed productions and other genres are sidelined, it signals a top-down push to steer culture toward the national struggle.

The goal is to break the will. Beijing wants to make resistance feel so costly and so tiring that, eventually, Taipei and Washington simply give up.

Freymann, a fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, argues that the historical U.S. playbook for the Asia-Pacific is losing its efficacy. For decades, the sheer weight of American military might has stabilized the region. As China rapidly builds up its military and narrows America's edge, he notes the U.S. can no longer rely solely on the threat of a large-scale counterstrike to preserve the status quo across the Taiwan Strait -- namely, that China doesn't invade and Taipei doesn't declare independence.

To counter China's multidimensional strategy, Freymann argues that American deterrence must be equally coordinated. He suggests that Washington must "integrate its military strength, economic leverage, technological leadership, and diplomatic influence into a single, coherent plan to prevent war."

That involves developing mechanisms for what he describes as "avalanche decoupling" -- basically the kind of total economic isolation that makes a war not just expensive, but suicidal for the Chinese economy. It also requires the U.S. and its allies to maintain a decisive lead in emerging technologies, such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, that underpin modern power.

The stakes are extraordinarily high. According to Freymann's analysis, a failure to deter China in the Taiwan Strait would have systemic consequences, potentially "plunging the global economy into chaos, shattering U.S. alliances, and allowing China to dominate the region and reshape the world order."

The intelligence community's latest forecast, many inside and outside Washington say, shouldn't be read as a sign to stand down, but as a narrow window to step up. Washington and its partners, they say, should use the window to build a comprehensive deterrence strategy that addresses nonmilitary coercion as effectively as it does conventional conflict.

As "Defending Taiwan" suggests, the goal isn't just to survive a potential cross-strait conflict. It is to ensure that the cost of starting one remains permanently unthinkable.

Can the U.S. pivot from a military deterrent to a more integrated strategy? Write to me at lingling.wei@wsj.com. Include your full name and location, and I might publish your response in a coming issue (if you're reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply).

This is an edition of the WSJ China newsletter, a weekly dispatch of exclusive insights on the contest between the U.S. and China, brought to you by the WSJ's top China correspondent. If you're not subscribed, sign up here.

China in a Few Headlines

   -- Beijing's big problem is an incredible shrinking economy. 
 
   -- China targets lawyers who defend jailed Christian leaders. 
 
   -- Inside Taiwan's urgent quest to win over Trump. 
 
   -- The Silicon Valley salesman accused of helping China get Nvidia's top 
      chips. 
 
   -- China hoped the Trump summit would cement its superpower status. Now Xi 
      has to wait. 

A Closer Look

A civil-defense movement is gaining momentum as Taiwan's government seeks to get everyone on the island ready for a Chinese attack.

Reader Responses

Last week, we asked our readers that as the U.S. and China move from a battle over economic principles to managing the status quo, who is winning. Some readers shared their thoughts:

   -- "The reality is that we were never going to get structural reforms from 
      negotiations with China. If we expect to blunt the threat from China, we 
      will have to ramp up our military spending and posture." -- Tom Wells, 
      Indiana 
 
   -- "I think Trump and team are focused on big dollar trade issues -- wins: 
      very transactional. China traditionally has a very long multiyear 
      strategy. I think Taiwan will be just another 'chip' on the table for 
      Trump: a dollar amount to be part of a transaction as opposed to a 
      strategic asset." -- William Pardee, Virginia 
 
   -- "I have long believed that the underlying issue of the West and 
      specifically the U.S. is how does Western-style capitalism that 
      prioritizes shareholder profitability no matter where it is earned versus 
      the Communist state-run economic model of capitalism. We have been asleep 
      for so long and are waking up to a disaster." -- Steve Beckerleg, 
      Wisconsin 
 
   -- "Who will win, of course, China. China is playing the long game. In this 
      case, that long game only has to last for another three years until the 
      next U.S. elections. By then, not only will the U.S. have a new president, 
      but China will have further cemented and occupied a good number of new 
      global pole positions in industries like, AI, humanoid robots, 
      biotechnology, high equipment manufacturing, etc., unlike the U.S." -- 
      Frank Haugwitz, Taiwan 
 
   -- "It's a double win for China. Structural issues like forced tech transfer 
      and IP theft would be unaddressed. And Chinese investment is welcomed in 
      the U.S., which leads to factory construction, EV sales, and moving 
      workers from U.S. manufacturers to Chinese firms, giving them more 
      leverage." -- Hiroshi Utsumi, Japan 
 
   -- "The U.S. demonstrations of military capability in Venezuela and Iran 
      might have been enough to cause China to rethink its positions on rare 
      earth and Taiwan. Trump was not willing to manage the status quo. He 
      wanted to establish a new status quo with a global American presence and 
      enhanced bargaining power." -- Eugene P. Grace, Pennsylvania 

(Responses have been condensed and edited.)

A Name in the News

Super Micro co-founder Wally Liaw was arrested, just days after posing with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at a tech conference. U.S. authorities allege Liaw helped Chinese customers obtain $2.5 billion in high-powered Nvidia AI servers in violation of export-control laws, thrusting him and Super Micro into the heart of the U.S.-China tech conflict.

About Us

WSJ China is a weekly newsletter with exclusive insights on the contest between the U.S. and China, brought to you by WSJ Chief China Correspondent Lingling Wei, with help from Zhao Yueling. Reach Lingling at lingling.wei@wsj.com or at @Lingling_Wei on X (if you're reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply). Sign up to get an alert every time she publishes an article. Got a tip for us? Here's how to submit.

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March 24, 2026 06:55 ET (10:55 GMT)

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