The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1042 GMT - The Persian Gulf war is now in week four, disrupting operations in the Strait of Hormuz and at Middle East airports, impacting 2%-3% of global sea freight volumes and around 15% of air freight capacity, J.P.Morgan analysts write. Oil prices have increased materially and the bank expects higher freight rates to offset increased costs. However, ultimately the success in recovering higher costs depends on supply-demand fundamentals. The earnings impact for container shipping is balanced and the recent sector outperformance is difficult to justify, J.P.Morgan says. In contrast, air cargo capacity has tightened and strong air freight rates should support yields for forwarders. It reiterates its underweight ratings on Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, ZIM and Kuehne+Nagel stocks and its overweight stance on DSV and DHL. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
1033 GMT - Business activity in the eurozone looks set to stagnate rather than contract, Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics says in a note. PMI surveys showed higher energy prices hit demand and drove up input costs in March. The composite index fell to 50.5 in the month from 51.9 in February. The drop was mostly driven by the services sector, while output in the manufacturing sector was little changed, Allen-Reynolds says. Still, worse could be to come. "Potential supply-chain disruption had prompted some companies to bring purchases forward... That boost won't last forever," he says. Meanwhile, output expectations hit a 10-month low. "We suspect that the economy will stagnate rather than contract, but there are clearly risks in both directions." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1030 GMT - Palm oil ended lower on Tuesday. Prices tracked weaker soybean oil and crude oil, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees support at 4,500 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,680 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery fell 72 ringgit to 4,539 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
1013 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise as uncertainty around the development in the Middle East dominate the market. "Conflicting signals over the prospect of a diplomatic resolution kept markets on edge," Sky Links Capital Group's Daniel Takieddine says in a note. Risk sentiment remains fragile, with the market swinging between hopes and concerns about the geopolitical situation, he says. Prolonged tensions and disruptions in the Middle East could continue to fuel inflation expectations and force central banks to adopt a more cautious approach, he says. The two-year Treasury yield is up 5.6 basis points at 3.885%. The 10-year yield rises 3.2 basis points to 4.366%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0924 GMT - The euro stays under pressure versus the dollar after the release of a weaker-than-expected flash eurozone purchasing manager's index survey for March. The eurozone composite PMI fell to 50.5 in March from 51.9 in February. Economists in a WSJ survey expected a reading of 51.0. The survey also showed the rate of input price inflation rose sharply as energy prices jumped due to the Middle East conflict. The data "underscore how the European Central Bank is no longer in a 'good place' with respect to growth and inflation and will have to tread a cautious policy path, S&P economist Chris Williamson says in the survey. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1587, little changed from levels before the data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0853 GMT - The euro could stay weaker against the dollar this week as a swift end to the Middle East conflict looks unlikely, keeping energy prices elevated, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. President Trump announced Monday that the U.S. would postpone attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following constructive talks but Iran denied such discussions took place. The postponement shifts the focus to Saturday, Baur says. The risk premium in the oil market that was priced out Monday is therefore likely to slowly build again over the course of the week unless there's positive news on talks, or if it becomes clear that ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, he says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1592. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0847 GMT - European natural-gas prices fall, with the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract down 1.6% to 55.78 euros a megawatt-hour after a sharp drop in the previous trading session. "Global gas prices came under pressure on the potential de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East," ANZ analysts write. However, "the selloff was less severe, given that recent damage to infrastructure in the region will have a lasting impact on supply." Meanwhile, the European Union has called on member states to start filling gas storage early to ensure proper refilling for the next heating season. "Starting storage injections as early as possible would allow us to benefit from a longer injection period and adapt to market circumstances to mitigate pressure on prices and avoid end-of-summer rush," Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0839 GMT - China Aviation Oil (Singapore) could post a modest net profit growth this year on higher costs and likely flat associate contributions, CGS International analysts write in a note. The brokerage forecasts the company's 2026 net profit to expand 4% to US$115 million. China Aviation Oil reported a 42% jump in 2025 net profit. The jet-fuel trader is likely to maintain an expansion in gross margin, though could be offset by rising procurement and freight costs. Associate contributions is expected to remain flat, as higher inventory capacity may be offset by weaker refueling volumes if oil prices remain high throughout the year. CGSI maintains an add rating on the stock, but raises the target price to S$2.68 from S$2.63. Shares are 3.7% lower at S$2.08. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0827 GMT - Copper prices fall back below the $12,000 mark due to concerns over the impact of the Iran war on global economic growth and inflation. "Copper, a bellwether for the global economy, has been under pressure as the Middle East conflict has sapped risk appetite across financial markets," ANZ analysts write. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange are down 1.9% to $11,982.50 a metric ton after rising in the previous trading session, when President Trump said the U.S. would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and signalled progress in talks. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0825 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall as concerns about an energy supply shock ease after the U.S. postponed attacks on Iranian energy plants. Investors remain cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the conflict. "Obviously much now depends on the progress of any talks, and whether the more optimistic rhetoric is followed up by concrete action," Deutsche Bank strategists say in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2 basis points to 4.914%, reversing Monday's rise when they hit a near 18-year high of 5.118%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - The flip-flopping of U.S President Trump, "saying one thing one moment and then something completely different the other," while at the same time nothing is corroborated by other concerned parties, is creating confusion and pandemonium for financial markets, analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank say in a note. Coupled with the deteriorating war environment, this leaves conflicting stories which are triggering wild swings in financial asset prices, the analysts say. "While we remain optimistic that common sense--and military de-escalation--will prevail in the near-term, we are also cognisant that the mixed and often incoherent messaging coming from the Oval Office, will only fuel continued market volatility," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0740 GMT - President Trump's move to postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days provides relief for oil-and-gas markets, DBS Group Research analysts write in a note. The latest development underlines a fragile and highly volatile potential pivot in the monthlong conflict between the U.S.-Israeli alliance and Iran. Trump also cited "very good and productive conversations" toward a total resolution of hostilities. "This marks a sharp shift in rhetoric from his recent 48-hour ultimatum to 'obliterate' those same targets if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed," DBS says. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 06:42 ET (10:42 GMT)
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