EY-Parthenon Sees 40% Recession Odds That Could 'Rapidly Rise' -- WSJ

Dow Jones03-24

By Krystal Hur

EY-Parthenon sees a 40% probability of a recession-for now.

"Those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict," wrote EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco in a note.

Daco also expects the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, to average $88 a barrel in the second quarter before falling to $72 in the fourth quarter.

"U.S. inflation could rise toward 5%, while real GDP growth could be reduced by more than 1 percentage point," he added.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 23, 2026 13:53 ET (17:53 GMT)

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