The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1103 ET - Ukraine's sovereign bonds look expensive given the ongoing war with Russia and the Middle East war, Oxford Economics' Evghenia Sleptsova says in a note. "The 2029 bond is trading around 75 cents, while Oxford Economics' fair value estimate is 57 cents," she says. Market pricing is based on the assumption that the war with Russia will end by 2028, underpricing the risk of the war continuing beyond 2028, Sleptsova says. In addition, the Middle East war and higher energy costs are expected to add to Ukraine's debt problems, she says. "Each $10 increase in the oil price would add about $700million to $1billion in higher energy import costs, widening [Ukraine's] current account deficit." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1100 ET - War related shipping issues were a key cause of longer supplier delivery times in March, according to an S&P Global survey. Supply delays were more widely reported by manufacturers than at any time since October 2022. In addition to shipping-related disruptions due to the war in the Middle East, upward pressure on supplier lead times was also caused by an increase in purchasing by factories, the survey says.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com; jessica_coacci)
1055 ET - The Swiss franc could gradually rise this year as the Swiss National Bank remains reluctant to cap the currency's strength with negative interest rates or much larger foreign-exchange interventions, Barclays analysts say in a note. The SNB's recent statements about increased willingness for currency interventions are prompted by the Iran war boosting demand for the safe-haven franc, rather than a shift in its appetite for such a policy, they say. Furthermore, the Swiss current account has weathered a stronger franc well. "Overall, a largely unchanged reaction by the SNB in an environment of strong safe-asset demand continues to imply persistent franc strength." Barclays expects the euro to fall to 0.89 francs by the fourth quarter from 0.9155 currently. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1047 ET - Goeasy's amended financing terms offer only limited relief, according to Graham Ryding of TD Cowen. The analyst says covenant waivers and revised terms on the revolver and securitization facility help the company manage its unusually large 4Q/25 charge-offs, but "funding for LendCare [secured loans] going forward looks compromised given these originations will be excluded now from the revolving credit and securitization facilities." Meanwhile the auto-loan securitization facility has been suspended, forcing receivables back onto Goeasy's balance sheet. Liquidity is at C$983 million, though most isn't accessible until mid-year, while a US$65 million note matures in May. Overall, Ryding says the agreements "provide some short term funding relief, but the outlook for funding LendCare looks compromised." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1040 ET - A shrinking population and labor force in Canada are set to pull the country's unemployment rate lower, countering more dovish arguments a rising jobless rate could hinder the Bank of Canada's policy response to what is emerging as a major positive inflation shock, Scotiabank's Derek Holt says. The economist says the lagging look at population in Statistics Canada's labor force survey will show a downward correction going forward, so that the unemployment rate is likely to push lower to 6% and possibly below. Holt says some doves are talking about the unemployment rate heading to 7%, but reckons that with it already at 6.7% Bank of Canada "Governor Macklem would hit snooze on that forecast" even if it weren't more likely to go down. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1037 ET - Brazil's central bank takes a cautious approach to the interest-rate cutting cycle launched last week, according to minutes published today. The BCB cut to 14.75% from 15%, frustrating expectations of faster easing. The minutes indicated "the magnitude of additional cuts and the depth of the cycle will be a function of data and the breadth and duration of war in the Middle East," Goldman Sachs' Alberto Ramos writes. The minutes leave the door open to a larger cut in April, but in Ramos' view "that may require an improvement in the external backdrop and limited impact on current inflation and inflation expectations." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1031 ET - The U.K. faces a "non-negligible risk of a mild recession" due to the effects of the Middle East war, Nuveen's Laura Cooper says in a note. Economic growth is weak and the unemployment rate is at a multi-year high of 5.2% but the risk of inflation due to high energy costs limits the Bank of England from cutting interest rates to support the economy, Cooper says. U.K. public finances are weakening, making it difficult for the government to offer support to households amid rising energy costs. Should high energy costs lead the BOE to raise interest rates, it increases the risk of U.K. sliding into a mild recession, she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1021 ET - U.S. home prices were little changed from a month earlier in February, Redfin says, rising 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's the slowest growth in seven months. Prices increased 1.9% year-over-year. Price growth is muted because it's the strongest buyer's market in recent history--for those who can afford to buy. There are a record 46% more home sellers than buyers, meaning the buyers who are in the market have negotiating power when it comes to price. Prices are still rising slightly, but this growth pales in comparison to recent years. Mortgage rates have ticked up in the past few weeks following months of declines, but Redfin still expects housing affordability to improve this year as income growth outpaces home price growth. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
0949 ET - More than 42,000 U.S. home-sale agreements fell through in February, Redfin says. That's equal to 13.7% of homes that went under contract that month, and up from 12.8% a year earlier. Nearly one in every seven homebuying deals are falling through largely because buyers are in the driver's seat. There are hundreds of thousands more home sellers than buyers in the country. A buyer may back out of a contract during the inspection period if they see a home they like better or an issue comes up that they don't want to repair. House hunters are also feeling jittery because of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, Redfin says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
0917 ET - Sterling could weaken in the second quarter due to fiscal risks related to upcoming U.K. local elections, Barclays analysts say in a note. "Geopolitical developments have pushed U.K. politics to the background, but risks of a more expansionary fiscal policy have likely risen in the wake of the energy shock and the upcoming May local elections," they say. Accordingly, sterling's fiscal risk premium is likely to re-widen in the second quarter closer to levels seen around the November autumn budget, they say. Barclays expects the euro to rise to 0.88 pounds in the second quarter from 0.8652 currently. However, it expects the euro to fall back to 0.86 pounds by the fourth quarter if the fiscal premium gradually normalizes. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0915 ET - The Middle East war risks driving up corporate defaults in Europe due to the effects of the conflict, analysts at the Investment Institute by UniCredit say in a note. "High oil and gas prices and interrupted supply chains create new credit risks, potentially leading to higher default rates in the medium term," they say. Credit markets are showing early signs of stress, with an increase in the share of iBoxx CCC-rated credit trading at distressed levels to nearly 50%, from 20% prior to the Middle East war, the analysts say. A prolonged war and high energy costs would create a negative environment for some European issuers, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0913 ET - The latest PMI survey data for the eurozone paint a difficult situation for the European Central Bank, Commerzbank's Vincent Stamer says in a note. While the war in the Middle East has meant the outlook for the economy is darkening, inflationary risks are mounting and uncertainty is hitting the services sector particularly hard, he says. "Central bankers cannot ignore this rise in consumer prices. However, uncertainty is also very high for the ECB, so it will likely monitor the data for the time being before raising key interest rates." Nevertheless, the PMI as a whole remains within the range where the eurozone's economy has grown at least moderately, Stamer says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 11:03 ET (15:03 GMT)
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