The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1103 ET - Ukraine's sovereign bonds look expensive given the ongoing war with Russia and the Middle East war, Oxford Economics' Evghenia Sleptsova says in a note. "The 2029 bond is trading around 75 cents, while Oxford Economics' fair value estimate is 57 cents," she says. Market pricing is based on the assumption that the war with Russia will end by 2028, underpricing the risk of the war continuing beyond 2028, Sleptsova says. In addition, the Middle East war and higher energy costs are expected to add to Ukraine's debt problems, she says. "Each $10 increase in the oil price would add about $700million to $1billion in higher energy import costs, widening [Ukraine's] current account deficit." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1055 ET - The Swiss franc could gradually rise this year as the Swiss National Bank remains reluctant to cap the currency's strength with negative interest rates or much larger foreign-exchange interventions, Barclays analysts say in a note. The SNB's recent statements about increased willingness for currency interventions are prompted by the Iran war boosting demand for the safe-haven franc, rather than a shift in its appetite for such a policy, they say. Furthermore, the Swiss current account has weathered a stronger franc well. "Overall, a largely unchanged reaction by the SNB in an environment of strong safe-asset demand continues to imply persistent franc strength." Barclays expects the euro to fall to 0.89 francs by the fourth quarter from 0.9155 currently. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1031 ET - The U.K. faces a "non-negligible risk of a mild recession" due to the effects of the Middle East war, Nuveen's Laura Cooper says in a note. Economic growth is weak and the unemployment rate is at a multi-year high of 5.2% but the risk of inflation due to high energy costs limits the Bank of England from cutting interest rates to support the economy, Cooper says. U.K. public finances are weakening, making it difficult for the government to offer support to households amid rising energy costs. Should high energy costs lead the BOE to raise interest rates, it increases the risk of U.K. sliding into a mild recession, she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0951 ET - Sugar prices trade at a five-month high, boosted by higher oil prices as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth week. In early U.S. trading, futures rise 1.7% to 16 cents a pound, the highest level since October and up more than 10% on the month. "The reason is that higher oil prices make ethanol production more lucrative," Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank says. "If more sugarcane is used for ethanol production, correspondingly less is available for sugar production, which limits the supply for export." However, further price increases are likely limited as India--a major sugar exporter--is increasing its exports to capitalize on higher prices and the depreciation of its currency, Fritsch says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0944 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are modestly higher after falling along with oil yesterday, with gains limited by a warm weather outlook. The natural gas market "can't decide if its correlated to oil or not, while the prompt fundamentals are pretty much on hold," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. Longer-term questions for the market include whether high LNG prices will reduce export terminal maintenance in 2Q, or high oil prices and the refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will lead to greater U.S. oil production and more associated gas growth, he says. Nymex natural gas is up 1.4% at $2.931/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0940 ET - TD Securities is lifting quarterly and annual price projections for crude oil and most base metals amid the ongoing conflict in Iran, while sharply reducing precious metals price expectations due to higher inflation expectations, a strong U.S. dollar and sharply higher yields across the curve. However, it expects gold, silver and platinum to recover strongly as the energy shock wanes later in the year. TD's 2026 WTI and Brent annual average prices are lifted 36% to $85.25/barrel and $89.75/barrel. Its aluminum price forecast is hiked 17% to $3,481/ton. Gold and silver annual average projections are cut 1% to $4,800/oz and $74.75/oz, with platinum downgraded by 2% to $2,024/oz. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
0917 ET - Sterling could weaken in the second quarter due to fiscal risks related to upcoming U.K. local elections, Barclays analysts say in a note. "Geopolitical developments have pushed U.K. politics to the background, but risks of a more expansionary fiscal policy have likely risen in the wake of the energy shock and the upcoming May local elections," they say. Accordingly, sterling's fiscal risk premium is likely to re-widen in the second quarter closer to levels seen around the November autumn budget, they say. Barclays expects the euro to rise to 0.88 pounds in the second quarter from 0.8652 currently. However, it expects the euro to fall back to 0.86 pounds by the fourth quarter if the fiscal premium gradually normalizes. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0915 ET - The Middle East war risks driving up corporate defaults in Europe due to the effects of the conflict, analysts at the Investment Institute by UniCredit say in a note. "High oil and gas prices and interrupted supply chains create new credit risks, potentially leading to higher default rates in the medium term," they say. Credit markets are showing early signs of stress, with an increase in the share of iBoxx CCC-rated credit trading at distressed levels to nearly 50%, from 20% prior to the Middle East war, the analysts say. A prolonged war and high energy costs would create a negative environment for some European issuers, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0913 ET - The latest PMI survey data for the eurozone paint a difficult situation for the European Central Bank, Commerzbank's Vincent Stamer says in a note. While the war in the Middle East has meant the outlook for the economy is darkening, inflationary risks are mounting and uncertainty is hitting the services sector particularly hard, he says. "Central bankers cannot ignore this rise in consumer prices. However, uncertainty is also very high for the ECB, so it will likely monitor the data for the time being before raising key interest rates." Nevertheless, the PMI as a whole remains within the range where the eurozone's economy has grown at least moderately, Stamer says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0903 ET - Oil futures are picking up some lost ground following yesterday's selloff on signs the U.S. is seeking a negotiated end to war with Iran. The market will still be demanding progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and even then time will be needed to repair oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The "vastly overbought" market condition was relieved by yesterday's selloff, which left money managers and funds in a position to reload into the long side "should attempts fail by the White House toward diplomacy," the firm adds. WTI is up 4.3% at $91.89 a barrel and Brent is up 3.1% at $103.05 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0856 ET - A bout of optimism in global markets fades as Tehran denies direct talks with the U.S. and fresh attacks by Iran on its Gulf neighbors temper hopes for a quick resolution. Treasury yields rise slightly, while the dollar strengthens and oil prices rise. U.S. March manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly, while the services survey is likely to slip, in a WSJ consensus. The 10-year yield is at 4.386%, up from 4.334% at yesterday's settle. The two-year rises to 3.897% from 3.830%. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.3%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0730 ET - The dollar could stay confined to a tight range in the near term due to uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar briefly fell Monday on reduced demand for safe havens and lower oil prices due to America's energy independence after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. Traders will be eager to hear, particularly from Iran, whether there's any realistic chance of ceasefire negotiations, Turner says. "Until then, any further rally in risk assets and selloff in the dollar will prove limited." The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.280. ING expects it to trade in a range of 99.00-100.00 for now. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 11:03 ET (15:03 GMT)
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