The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0659 GMT - Bond markets remain driven by the Middle East newsflow, but the underlying dynamics have changed over the last couple of days, Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. "As bond markets remain at the mercy of erratic White House headlines, the underlying dynamics appear to be shifting," the head of rates and credit research says. "The focus may shift from fighting inflation to its side effects," he says. In the eurozone, flash estimate purchasing managers indices will be data to watch, "where the question seems to be just how much they will decline," Rieger says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0654 GMT - The Netherlands and Germany line up for government bond auctions in the eurozone Tuesday, with the former tapping the ultra-long end of the curve and the latter a shorter-dated debt. The Netherlands will auction 1.5 billion euros to 2 billion euros in the January 2056 DSL, while Germany will offer 5 billion euros in the April 2031-dated federal note, or Bobl. The auctions come as global bond markets remain jittery, driven by news around the war in the Middle East. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0647 GMT - It's too early to get too optimistic about 'peace deals' in the Middle East getting baked in the next couple of days as demands of both sides still seem unbridgeable, Macquarie's Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry say in a note. "It's far-fetched to imagine the U.S. dropping its demands pertaining to Iran's nuclear assets, or that the U.S. would just leave its bases in the Gulf," the global strategists say. It is also far-fetched to see Iran dropping support for its proxy armies at this stage, they say. That said, "the war is unlikely to last beyond mid-April because Iran's threats are likely to be neutralized by then." But once neutralized, the U.S. will have the upper hand in any negotiations that ensue, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0642 GMT - Flash estimate purchasing managers data for March from several key economies, including France, Germany, the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S., are likely to reflect some impact of the Middle East conflict, SEB's Pia Fromlet says in a note. "The measurement period will probably include the time after the outbreak of war in the Middle East," the euro area economist says. Although it is still early, sentiment may have been negatively affected, she says. SEB will be keeping an eye on various price indexes and indexes that measure delivery times, she says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0639 GMT - The potential for Bank Indonesia to resume cutting rates depends on how the rupiah performs, Barclays economists write in a note. There was already significant uncertainty around the timing of when BI would further cut rates before the Middle East conflict broke out. The rupiah has been pressured since earlier this year, partly due to fiscal concerns. Global investors may focus on how much additional subsidy spending the government incurs to keep a lid on rising energy prices. The BI would likely be confident in cutting again if the rupiah strengthens or remain stable against the dollar. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0635 GMT - The risk in European rates runs in both directions and that asymmetry deserves to be in the price, Neuberger Berman's Ashok Bhatia says in a note. "The rise in government [bond] yields globally, while driven by the repricing of central bank expectations, is also likely being impacted by central banks and institutions needing to raise cash given rising oil prices," the CIO and global head of fixed income says. U.S. Treasurys, even without their traditional safe-haven bid, reflect a central bank with a clearer easing path than its European peers, Bhatia says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0625 GMT - The Philippines central bank could hike rates twice this year instead of cutting rates, Barclays economists write in a note. Policymakers would be concerned over economic challenges, which existed before the Middle East conflict broke out. However, the BSP may ease rates if the conflict de-escalates in the near term. Barclays's base case now is for the BSP to deliver one 25bp rate hike each in April and June. This is projected to be followed by three 25bp rate cuts in 2027 if global crude oil prices moderate. Barclays had previously expected the BSP to cut rates by 25 bps each in April and June 2026. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0623 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in Asian trade as oil prices rise again and uncertainties regarding the resolution of the Middle East war linger despite President Trump's signal to de-escalate the war soon. Yields rise faster at the short end of the curve, suggesting that investors are more worried about the potential inflationary impact of the war than about growth risks. Money markets currently price in no changes in the Federal Reserve's fed funds target range, according to LSEG data. The two-year Treasury yield rises 6.8 basis points to 3.897%, while the 10-year yield is up 4.4 basis points at 4.379%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0618 GMT - Flash PMI data for India took a turn in March, signaling the slowest expansion in private-sector output since October 2022. "Output growth eased across both manufacturing and services as the energy shock unfolds," says Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC. The largest slowdown was noted by goods producers, who reported that the war in the Middle East weighed on production, exacerbating market instability, driving inflation, and restricting demand amid heightened uncertainty among clients and end consumers, according to the HSBC flash India PMI compiled by S&P Global. Service providers also indicated a weaker upturn in business activity. Anecdotal evidence cited disruptions to international travel amid strikes by the U.S. and Israel and Iran's counterattacks. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
0614 GMT - Near-term supply at U.S. coupon auctions--those for notes and bonds--remains mostly constant, but uncertainty around tariffs and the Iran war clouds the medium-term outlook, Natixis's John Briggs says in a note. Previously, Natixis expected the U.S. Treasury to increase supply at coupon auctions at the November 2026 refunding, but it also believed that with tariff revenue assisting the deficit outlook, there was a strong probability Treasury could be able to wait until February 2027 before increases at those auctions, the U.S. rates strategist says. "Now, given the unknown new equilibrium on tariffs and thus revenue, and an unknown duration for the war with Iran, "the odds of being able to wait until February 2027 are falling." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0518 GMT - CPI inflation is expected to rise by an average of 0.4 percentage points across major global and Asian economies following the Iran war, Eastspring Investments says in a note. Persistently higher energy prices are likely to gradually feed into central bank inflation expectations. While imminent rate cuts across most Asian economies appear unlikely, policy tensions may build over time, with China and Malaysia having the lowest likelihood of rate hikes this year. On equities, Eastspring anticipates further corrections as risks shift from inflation toward growth. Meanwhile, oil price shocks may lead to diverging industrial production across Asian manufacturing economies, though strong AI-driven demand that supported North Asia's tech exporters should stay strong, the asset manager adds.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 02:59 ET (06:59 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments