The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0853 GMT - The euro could stay weaker against the dollar this week as a swift end to the Middle East conflict looks unlikely, keeping energy prices elevated, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. President Trump announced Monday that the U.S. would postpone attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following constructive talks but Iran denied such discussions took place. The postponement shifts the focus to Saturday, Baur says. The risk premium in the oil market that was priced out Monday is therefore likely to slowly build again over the course of the week unless there's positive news on talks, or if it becomes clear that ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, he says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1592. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0832 GMT - Sterling has limited scope to rise against the euro as the bar is exceptionally high for the Bank of England to raise interest rates as the market expects, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Sterling remains surprisingly well-supported versus the euro even after the market scaled back expectations for BOE rate rises on Monday, he says. The adjustment in rates came after President Trump said he would postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. However, one-month risk reversals for euro versus sterling show the skew towards call options, or bets on it rising, remains elevated, LSEG data show. The euro trades flat at 0.8646 pounds and ING expects falls to be capped at 0.8600. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0831 GMT - The French 10-year government bond, or OAT, yield turns slightly higher, while the euro shows little reaction to weaker-than-expected flash estimate purchasing managers data for March. The flash composite PMI was 48.3 for March, below analysts' forecast of 49.5 in the Wall Street Journal's poll. The 10-year OAT yield last trades 0.4 basis points higher at 3.720% after the data, compared with 3.694% beforehand, according to Tradeweb. The euro stays weaker against the dollar, showing little reaction. The euro last trades down 0.2% at $1.1595, compared to $1.1601 before the data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0825 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall as concerns about an energy supply shock ease after the U.S. postponed attacks on Iranian energy plants. Investors remain cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the conflict. "Obviously much now depends on the progress of any talks, and whether the more optimistic rhetoric is followed up by concrete action," Deutsche Bank strategists say in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2 basis points to 4.914%, reversing Monday's rise when they hit a near 18-year high of 5.118%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - The flip-flopping of U.S President Trump, "saying one thing one moment and then something completely different the other," while at the same time nothing is corroborated by other concerned parties, is creating confusion and pandemonium for financial markets, analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank say in a note. Coupled with the deteriorating war environment, this leaves conflicting stories which are triggering wild swings in financial asset prices, the analysts say. "While we remain optimistic that common sense--and military de-escalation--will prevail in the near-term, we are also cognisant that the mixed and often incoherent messaging coming from the Oval Office, will only fuel continued market volatility," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0806 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally following a recovery in U.S. and Asian stocks overnight after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Trump said Monday the attacks would be halted for five days after constructive talks, allowing risk sentiment to rebound and boosting cryptocurrencies. However, Iran denied that such negotiations were held, keeping uncertainty elevated and limiting gains in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin edges up 0.5% to $71,267, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0750 GMT - The dollar rises along with oil prices as optimism over an easing of the Middle East conflict fades. President Trump said Monday that the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following constructive talks but Iran said no such talks took place. Trump's comments caused the dollar to fall as oil prices dropped and risk sentiment recovered but the moves proved short-lived given Iran's failure to confirm progress toward ending the conflict. The dollar is negatively correlated to risk sentiment as a safe haven and positively correlated to oil prices as the U.S. is a net exporter of the commodity. The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.231. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - Incoming Bank of Korea governor Shin Hyun-song could mean a more hawkish bias for the central bank, BofA economist Benson Wu says. "We expect the incoming governor to adopt a more cautious policy stance," Wu says, noting Shin's "expertise in global liquidity, financial stability and systemic risk-skills" amid rising volatility linked to geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. While the new appointment may not lead to an immediate increase in rates in 2Q, BofA points to the May policy meeting's dot plot and speech as key to future policy trajectory. (jihye.lee@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - External demand is expected to support Malaysia's economic growth in 1Q, backed by a solid trade surplus and sustained export momentum from late 2025, says TA Securities analyst Farid Burhanuddin in a note. A surplus comparable to 4Q 2025 appears achievable, requiring less than 10 billion ringgit in additional surplus over the rest of the quarter, he says. However, risks remain. Weakness in intermediate goods exports and a stronger ringgit could weigh on near-term export momentum, he reckons. TA Securities maintains its 2026 export growth forecast at 4.6%, with imports rising 6.2%, keeping the trade surplus at around 135 billion ringgit. TA Securities is also watching for ringgit appreciation, persistent weakness in intermediate goods, escalating U.S. trade tensions and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0714 GMT - President Trump's claim of "very good and productive" negotiations with Iran signals his attempt at de-escalation, according to Pepperstone's Michael Brown. After Trump said Washington and Tehran held conversations, Iran denied them, but "whether or not talks have taken place is somewhat immaterial," the research strategist says in a note. The move signals that Trump has reversed the ultimatum issued over the weekend and seems to be pursuing de-escalation for the first time since the conflict began. "We might finally be seeing a faint chink of light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to the ongoing Middle East conflict." (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0659 GMT - Bond markets remain driven by the Middle East newsflow, but the underlying dynamics have changed over the last couple of days, Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. "As bond markets remain at the mercy of erratic White House headlines, the underlying dynamics appear to be shifting," the head of rates and credit research says. "The focus may shift from fighting inflation to its side effects," he says. In the eurozone, flash estimate purchasing managers indices will be data to watch, "where the question seems to be just how much they will decline," Rieger says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0654 GMT - The Netherlands and Germany line up for government bond auctions in the eurozone Tuesday, with the former tapping the ultra-long end of the curve and the latter a shorter-dated debt. The Netherlands will auction 1.5 billion euros to 2 billion euros in the January 2056 DSL, while Germany will offer 5 billion euros in the April 2031-dated federal note, or Bobl. The auctions come as global bond markets remain jittery, driven by news around the war in the Middle East. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 04:53 ET (08:53 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments