The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1013 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise as uncertainty around the development in the Middle East dominate the market. "Conflicting signals over the prospect of a diplomatic resolution kept markets on edge," Sky Links Capital Group's Daniel Takieddine says in a note. Risk sentiment remains fragile, with the market swinging between hopes and concerns about the geopolitical situation, he says. Prolonged tensions and disruptions in the Middle East could continue to fuel inflation expectations and force central banks to adopt a more cautious approach, he says. The two-year Treasury yield is up 5.6 basis points at 3.885%. The 10-year yield rises 3.2 basis points to 4.366%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
1000 GMT - U.K. house builder Bellway is being affected by sector headwinds, including the conflict in the Middle East, Interactive Investor analyst Victoria Scholar says in a note. The war in Iran and the ensuing economic uncertainty will likely affect consumer confidence and add pressure in terms of build-cost inflation as the energy shock looks set to push up construction costs such as labor and materials, Scholar says. Furthermore, the Bank of England's monetary policy paralysis has affected shares as they have fallen over 25% since the start of the year on the back of inflation fears, the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, and worsening mortgage affordability, Scholar says. Shares are down 8.8% at 19.49 pounds. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)
0956 GMT - Sterling remains weaker against the dollar and the euro after a measure of U.K. manufacturing and services activity fell more than expected in March. Gilt yields also remain lower. The provisional composite purchasing managers' index fell to 51.0 in March from 53.7 in February. Economists in a WSJ survey had forecast 52.5. The survey showed cost pressures accelerated rapidly as energy prices rose due to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence also dropped. Sterling falls to an intraday low of $1.3376, versus $1.3385 before the data. The euro rises to an intraday high of 0.8658 pounds, from 0.8651 beforehand. Ten-year gilt yields are last down 1.6 basis points at 4.918%, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0924 GMT - The euro stays under pressure versus the dollar after the release of a weaker-than-expected flash eurozone purchasing manager's index survey for March. The eurozone composite PMI fell to 50.5 in March from 51.9 in February. Economists in a WSJ survey expected a reading of 51.0. The survey also showed the rate of input price inflation rose sharply as energy prices jumped due to the Middle East conflict. The data "underscore how the European Central Bank is no longer in a 'good place' with respect to growth and inflation and will have to tread a cautious policy path, S&P economist Chris Williamson says in the survey. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1587, little changed from levels before the data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0907 GMT - The October 2035 gilt trades cheap and is likely to attract demand during the auction at 1000 GMT, RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. "The optimism and stability in the market should be supportive for demand at Tuesday's auction," they say. The October 2035 gilt yield has increased from 4.234% prior to the Middle East war and last trades at 4.904%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0853 GMT - The euro could stay weaker against the dollar this week as a swift end to the Middle East conflict looks unlikely, keeping energy prices elevated, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. President Trump announced Monday that the U.S. would postpone attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following constructive talks but Iran denied such discussions took place. The postponement shifts the focus to Saturday, Baur says. The risk premium in the oil market that was priced out Monday is therefore likely to slowly build again over the course of the week unless there's positive news on talks, or if it becomes clear that ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, he says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1592. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0832 GMT - Sterling has limited scope to rise against the euro as the bar is exceptionally high for the Bank of England to raise interest rates as the market expects, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Sterling remains surprisingly well-supported versus the euro even after the market scaled back expectations for BOE rate rises on Monday, he says. The adjustment in rates came after President Trump said he would postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. However, one-month risk reversals for euro versus sterling show the skew towards call options, or bets on it rising, remains elevated, LSEG data show. The euro trades flat at 0.8646 pounds and ING expects falls to be capped at 0.8600. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0831 GMT - The French 10-year government bond, or OAT, yield turns slightly higher, while the euro shows little reaction to weaker-than-expected flash estimate purchasing managers data for March. The flash composite PMI was 48.3 for March, below analysts' forecast of 49.5 in the Wall Street Journal's poll. The 10-year OAT yield last trades 0.4 basis points higher at 3.720% after the data, compared with 3.694% beforehand, according to Tradeweb. The euro stays weaker against the dollar, showing little reaction. The euro last trades down 0.2% at $1.1595, compared to $1.1601 before the data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0825 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall as concerns about an energy supply shock ease after the U.S. postponed attacks on Iranian energy plants. Investors remain cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the conflict. "Obviously much now depends on the progress of any talks, and whether the more optimistic rhetoric is followed up by concrete action," Deutsche Bank strategists say in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2 basis points to 4.914%, reversing Monday's rise when they hit a near 18-year high of 5.118%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - The flip-flopping of U.S President Trump, "saying one thing one moment and then something completely different the other," while at the same time nothing is corroborated by other concerned parties, is creating confusion and pandemonium for financial markets, analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank say in a note. Coupled with the deteriorating war environment, this leaves conflicting stories which are triggering wild swings in financial asset prices, the analysts say. "While we remain optimistic that common sense--and military de-escalation--will prevail in the near-term, we are also cognisant that the mixed and often incoherent messaging coming from the Oval Office, will only fuel continued market volatility," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0806 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally following a recovery in U.S. and Asian stocks overnight after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Trump said Monday the attacks would be halted for five days after constructive talks, allowing risk sentiment to rebound and boosting cryptocurrencies. However, Iran denied that such negotiations were held, keeping uncertainty elevated and limiting gains in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin edges up 0.5% to $71,267, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0750 GMT - The dollar rises along with oil prices as optimism over an easing of the Middle East conflict fades. President Trump said Monday that the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following constructive talks but Iran said no such talks took place. Trump's comments caused the dollar to fall as oil prices dropped and risk sentiment recovered but the moves proved short-lived given Iran's failure to confirm progress toward ending the conflict. The dollar is negatively correlated to risk sentiment as a safe haven and positively correlated to oil prices as the U.S. is a net exporter of the commodity. The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.231. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 06:13 ET (10:13 GMT)
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