The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1204 ET - Mexico's inflation likely sped up in the first half of March on higher energy and fresh food prices, while core inflation is seen little changed. The consumer price index is expected to have risen 0.40% in the first two weeks of the month, according a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. That would lift the 12-month inflation rate up to 4.40% from 4.13% in the second half of February. Core CPI is seen rising 0.22% in the two-week period, putting annual core inflation at 4.46% compared with 4.48% in the second half of February. Statistics institute Inegi is scheduled to report mid-March inflation on Tuesday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1158 ET - Reducing exposure to high-risk strategies appears more favorable in the current environment of elevated uncertainty, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says in a note. A full reversal of energy prices and the situation the Middle East is not so easy, Walsh says. Given the uncertainty surrounding the war and its impact on global growth and inflation, investors are better off reducing their exposure to risk rather than taking on risk, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1125 ET - There were an estimated 46.3% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in February, Redfin says. That's 630,000 more, in numerical terms, the largest gap in records dating back to 2013 and up from 29.8% a year earlier. When sellers outnumber buyers, buyers typically hold the negotiating power. That's considered a buyer's market, but it's only a buyer's market for those who can afford to buy. High housing costs and mortgage have caused many house hunters to retreat, creating an imbalance of buyers and sellers. The number of homebuyers in the market fell 2.4% month over month in February to an estimated 1.36 million. The number of sellers posted a smaller decline, falling 0.4% to an estimated 1.99 million. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1109 ET - The cost of insuring euro credit against default drops back from elevated levels after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps retreats to 335 basis points, having hit an 11-month high of 365bps in early trade, LSEG data show. Trump's announcement brings some relief to investors. However, uncertainty remains and credit CDS levels stay high. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index stood at around 260bps before U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran began. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1100 ET - A speech later this week from the Bank of Canada's No. 2 official, Carolyn Rogers, is taking on heightened importance due to repricingin the overnight-index swap market for rate increases later this year, TD Securities say. She speaks at a Thursday luncheon in Brandon, Manitoba, just over a week after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged while arguing it was premature to determine the economic impact from the war in Iran. Since that decision, traders have priced in three BOC rate increases before the end of 2026, and Rogers has a chance to respond to recent OIS trading. "We see risks to the downside" to that trade, TD Securities says, "as the fundamentals don't support current positioning." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1043 ET - Sterling looks vulnerable to falls in the event of a rout in U.K. government bonds, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The U.K.'s large government debt and current account deficit suggest the gilt market is more susceptible to suffering market jitters, she says. "On top of higher inflation, calls for the government to provide financial support for the economy in the face of higher energy prices is unsettling for the gilts market," she says. Concerns about a potential leadership challenge for U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of May local elections is another risk. Sterling rises 0.7% to $1.3438 and the euro falls 0.4% to 0.8640 pounds after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1028 ET - Investors pare down bets on an interest rate increase in the U.S., as oil prices fall around 10% following President Trump's indications that talks with Iran are advancing. Sharply rising oil prices stoked inflation fears in past weeks, leading markets to brace for at least one Fed hike. The prospect of de-escalation revives expectations of a prolonged hold. "Right now the only issue that matters for financial markets is what the price of oil is," AllianceBernstein's Eric Winograd says. He expects the Fed to cut rates this year. On CME, odds of a hike by December fall to 19% from 25% on Friday. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1027 ET - Cryptocurrencies should remain volatile until a clear trend emerges in either direction for prices, Trade Nation's David Morrison says in a note. Bitcoin and ether have proved resilient given recent sharp falls across equities and precious metals amid the Middle East conflict, he says. This supports the view that last week's crypto pullback was a healthy correction after recent gains, he says. However, the argument that current optimism is misplaced and that recent gains will soon evaporate is also "perfectly valid." Either way, further price swings look likely, he says. Bitcoin rises 4.5% to $71,253, LSEG data show. Ether increases 5.9% to $2,180. The gains come after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1001 ET - The U.K. faces inflation risk due to energy supply constraints given the ongoing Middle East conflict, Charles Stanley's Oliver Faizallah says in a note. The Bank of England is unlikely to raise interest rates even with the threat of high inflation as the economic growth is weak, Faizallah adds. Charles Stanley expects the BOE to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% in the coming months. Investors fully price in the possibility of the BOE raising interest rates twice in 2026, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0914 ET - Traders "are truly out of step with reality" by pricing in three interest-rate increases from the Bank of Canada by the end of 2026, says David Rosenberg, economist and head of market-strategy firm Rosenberg Research. "Unless you believe that the best way for the BOC to deal with an exogenous price shock with a near-7% unemployment rate is to detonate the economy (I don't), this tightening-trade is nonsensical," he writes in a note to clients. He says the front end of the Canada yield curve looks appealing, with the possibility of a 6% return within a year. Inflation will climb but its staying power will crumble, Rosenberg predicts, due to the country's weak labor market. (paul.vieira@wsj.com)
0901 ET - At an "intense moment" of economic uncertainty, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says that the Fed may still have a path to cutting rates this year, but it should not rule out raising interest rates if the Iran war pushes up inflation and inflation expectations in the months ahead. In an interview on CNBC, Goolsbee says that the war has put a wide range of paths on the table. "We could be back to cuts for the year, if inflation behaves. I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates if it was going a different way and inflation was getting out of control." Goolsbee notes that higher gasoline prices could have an especially pernicious effect on inflation expectations, which can be self fulfilling. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @matgrossman)
0858 ET - Investors scale back their expectations of interest-rate rises by the Bank of England after President Trump said he would postpone attacks on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure. The announcement on Trump's Truth Social platform eases concerns about the risk of a prolonged energy supply shock causing elevated inflation, leading investors to reduce their expectations of BOE rate hikes. Money markets fully price in two BOE rate rises in 2026, with a risk of a third, LSEG data show. Prior to Trump's comments, markets had priced nearly four BOE rate hikes this year.(miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 12:04 ET (16:04 GMT)
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