Oil Won't Give Up All Its Gains, Even in a Best-Case Scenario -- WSJ

Dow Jones03-23

By Ed Ballard

Brent crude was recently trading just above $100 a barrel, down 10% for the day after President Trump delayed his threat to "obliterate" Iran's power plants.

Even in a best-case scenario for a rapid end to hostilities, Brent, the international benchmark, won't quickly return to the levels of about $70 a barrel where it was trading before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

-- Even if the flow of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz rapidly returns to normal, oil will still be trading at around $75 a barrel at the year-end, Société Générale analysts forecast.

-- One reason is that energy assets in the Gulf have been damaged, resulting in a tighter balance of supply and demand. Current high prices also reflect a risk premium-the extra money buyers will pay for oil now because they fear being unable to get it in future.

No matter what happens next, that fear won't just evaporate.

"All the risk premia will not be eroded for many weeks, if not months," said Michael Haigh, head of fixed-income and commodities research at Société Générale.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 23, 2026 10:29 ET (14:29 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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